July 2021

[uofmiami]

Only up to 89 at both my stations, Muttontown & Syosset, so far.

[Rjay]

Islip with another 89

[wdrag]

Just got back senior softball and saw the watch in our northern part of the forum... I can see something gusty 40 kt near and n of I84 but for now not threading, since its a small part of the forum, a bit shakey and pretty quick.  Just hope we all along I84 get some rain., 

[lee59]

89 here today, still holding at 10 over 90 for the year.

[bluewave]

Only the 7th time that Newark reached 90°on 27 days by the end of July. It’s also the first time on the list since 1991 that there were so few 90°days in July. So the May and June heat allowed Newark to make it 5th place by the end of July.
 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Season
2010	1	2	13	21	37
1993	0	3	9	22	34
1987	0	4	11	14	29
1994	1	1	10	16	28
2011	0	1	4	22	27
1991	0	8	10	9	27
2021	0	4	12	11	27

 

[Brian5671]

Euro has nice cool shot first part of next week....

[crossbowftw3]

About to get 7/10 split by a pair of severe warned storms 

[uncle W]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only the 7th time that Newark reached 90°on 27 days by the end of July. It’s also the first time on the list since 1991 that there were so few 90°days in July. So the May and June heat allowed Newark to make it 5th place by the end of July.
 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Season
2010	1	2	13	21	37
1993	0	3	9	22	34
1987	0	4	11	14	29
1994	1	1	10	16	28
2011	0	1	4	22	27
1991	0	8	10	9	27
2021	0	4	12	11	27

 

Newark is having a hot Summer...

[gravitylover]

I saw 92 in a few spots and 93 once earlier in my travels around northern Westchester and it's smoky, hazy and muggy. Yay  Looks like I'm gonna get wet in an hour or so.

[bluewave]

55 minutes ago, uncle W said:

Newark is having a hot Summer...

This was one of the cooler Julys for a top 10 warmest June and July period.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
1994	77.8	81.9	79.9
2010	76.2	82.3	79.3
1993	75.8	82.5	79.2
2011	74.5	82.7	78.6
2021	76.2	79.1	77.7
2020	74.4	80.8	77.6
1999	74.2	80.8	77.5
2013	73.3	80.9	77.1
2008	75.3	78.7	77.0
1987	74.4	79.4	76.9
1981	74.6	79.2	76.9

 

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Our electrical grid is somehow good, at least in my neighborhood specifically, but the lack of storms gets frustrating sometimes. I guess it’s a south shore thing? I haven’t lost power since Sandy here and that was only for 3 days. Even in Isaias and in that big downburst in 2019 (probably the only true severe storm I’ve ever seen here) much of the town lost power but my block came out ok.

It's annoying the outages are becoming more often here.  Nothing extremely long since Sandy which was a 25 hour outage here and of course the outage that took down half the nation and parts of Canada back in August 2004.  But we had an outage of like an hour back in March 2018 I think it was when we had all those snowstorms.  And then we had a weird 2 hour power outage during a total lunar eclipse back in January 2016 when the high winds caused it to go out while temps fell into the single digits.....those are my 2 cold weather power outages.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of the cooler Julys for a top 10 warmest June and July period.

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jun	Jul	Season
1994	77.8	81.9	79.9
2010	76.2	82.3	79.3
1993	75.8	82.5	79.2
2011	74.5	82.7	78.6
2021	76.2	79.1	77.7
2020	74.4	80.8	77.6
1999	74.2	80.8	77.5
2013	73.3	80.9	77.1
2008	75.3	78.7	77.0
1987	74.4	79.4	76.9
1981	74.6	79.2	76.9

 

 

wasn't 1994 a front loaded hot summer?  much hotter down in Philly where 1993 and 1994 were back to back record hot summers

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 7th time that Newark reached 90°on 27 days by the end of July. It’s also the first time on the list since 1991 that there were so few 90°days in July. So the May and June heat allowed Newark to make it 5th place by the end of July.
 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Season
2010	1	2	13	21	37
1993	0	3	9	22	34
1987	0	4	11	14	29
1994	1	1	10	16	28
2011	0	1	4	22	27
1991	0	8	10	9	27
2021	0	4	12	11	27

 

thats crazy wasn't 1991 a record hot summer, tied with 1993 for number of 90 degree days?

it hit 100 twice in July in the city

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 7th time that Newark reached 90°on 27 days by the end of July. It’s also the first time on the list since 1991 that there were so few 90°days in July. So the May and June heat allowed Newark to make it 5th place by the end of July.
 

Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Season
2010	1	2	13	21	37
1993	0	3	9	22	34
1987	0	4	11	14	29
1994	1	1	10	16	28
2011	0	1	4	22	27
1991	0	8	10	9	27
2021	0	4	12	11	27

 

lol @ May having 8 90 degree highs, no wonder 1991 is tied with 1993 with record 90 degree days

 

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The unusually strong 500 mb anomaly over Canada allowed us to escape the major heat this July that has been common since 2010.

 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2021	79.1	5
2020	80.8	0
2019	80.6	0
2018	78.2	0
2017	77.3	0
2016	79.9	0
2015	79.0	0
2014	77.0	0
2013	80.9	0
2012	80.8	0
2011	82.7	0
2010	82.3	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2021	77.9	5
2020	82.9	0
2019	81.5	0
2018	79.8	0
2017	78.1	0
2016	81.1	0
2015	79.2	0
2014	77.0	0
2013	81.2	0
2012	80.4	0
2011	80.4	0
2010	82.8	0

 

and the rest of the country is experiencing the heat although it's funny Atlanta and Dallas have had less heat than we have had but they are about to catch up

[LibertyBell]

On 7/26/2021 at 5:24 PM, bluewave said:

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

 

JFK didn't reach 100 that day  But I wasn't on Long Island anyway I was in the Poconos where it did reach 100 ha!

I dont even have a/c there but it's so cool at night even when it hits 100 during the day that you don't really need a/c even when it's that hot.  The good thing about being far away from a densely packed highly polluted urban area.

[LibertyBell]

On 7/26/2021 at 5:24 PM, bluewave said:

JFK was able to set its highest dew point record of 84° in 2016. But you can see how all the highest records were in recent years. The mid-July 1995 heatwave was impressive for several sites reaching the 100/80 mark. 

 

Crazy how many of those were from 2019!  That was when JFK had their back to back 99 temps on the weekend and the highest heat index (117) of all time correct?

 

[LibertyBell]

23 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes. And it was warmer than Central Park.

Don did they hit 90 today? I read that it got to 91 yesterday?

 

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, doncat said:

That chart has been posted numerous times this summer and it's always way off.

I think it's useful to show that even that model has no heat for our area through the middle of August outside of one day, on the 10th.

 

[BxEngine]

Outflow from the storm just to my north came through with some big gusts just now.

[Dark Star]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was one of the cooler Julys for a top 10 warmest June and July period.

 

Sure didn't feel much cooler, but then again, I'm probably still in shock from June...

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

Wow strong gusts ahead of this storm with mainly clear skies

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

 

All the July heat since 2010 has really raised the bar. 

 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Season
Mean	79.9	79.9
2021	79.1	79.1
2020	80.8	80.8
2019	80.6	80.6
2018	78.2	78.2
2017	77.3	77.3
2016	79.9	79.9
2015	79.0	79.0
2014	77.0	77.0
2013	80.9	80.9
2012	80.8	80.8
2011	82.7	82.7
2010	82.3	82.3

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	82.7	0
2	1993	82.5	0
3	2010	82.3	0
4	1994	81.9	0
5	2013	80.9	0
6	2020	80.8	0
-	2012	80.8	0
-	1999	80.8	0
7	2019	80.6	0
8	1955	80.5	0
9	1988	80.4	0
10	2002	80.0	0
11	2016	79.9	0
12	1983	79.6	0
-	1966	79.6	0
13	1995	79.5	0
-	1949	79.5	0
14	2006	79.4	0
-	1987	79.4	0
15	1981	79.2	0
-	1952	79.2	0
16	2021	79.1	5
17	2015	79.0	0
18	1980	78.8	0
19	2008	78.7	0
20	1973	78.6	0
21	2005	78.3	0
-	1982	78.3	0
22	2018	78.2	0

[nycwinter]

gusty winds in the city

[bluewave]

LGA gusting to 45 mph.

27 Jul 7:34 pm

83

58

43

NNW

25G45

10.00

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don did they hit 90 today? I read that it got to 91 yesterday?

 

Yesterday was 90. It appears that JFK fell short today.

[wdrag]

Wantage had G35 MPH 614P,  0.26" in that storm, and about 4 mi away, pea sized hail at ~620PM.

[donsutherland1]

Temperatures rose into the upper 80s and lower 90s across the region today.

90° Days for Select Cities (through July 27):

Albany: 4 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 17 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 32 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 15 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 8 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 7 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 21 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 16 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 3 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 6 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 17 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 12 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 27 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 22 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 12 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 28 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 16 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 17 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

Out West, record temperatures were reported in a number of locations. Records included:

Billings: 106° (old record: 103°, 1935 and 1947)
Casper: 100° (old record: 99°, 2008)
Rapid City: 107° (old record: 104°, 1987)

Meanwhile, from 4 pm - 5 pm MST, Tucson picked up 1.27" of rain. Through 5:20 pm MST, Tucson had picked up 1.29" of rain, bringing the monthly total to 7.08". That makes July 2021 the wettest July on record in Tucson. The old record was 6.80", which was set in 2017. July 2021 is also Tucson's second wettest month on record.

A strong cold front will cross the region tonight the remainder of the month will be cooler than normal. Showers and thundershowers are possible tonight and again on Thursday. The month could end with an unseasonable push of cool air.

Even as an unseasonably cool air mass pushes into parts of the Northeast, record-breaking heat could develop in northwestern Canada. That heat will likely persist through the upcoming weekend.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around July 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.20°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +10.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.917 today.

On July 25 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.186 (RMM). The July 24-adjusted amplitude was 1.199 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 96% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.3° (1.2° below normal).

 

[Intensewind002]

Hit 89 for the high here todah

[doncat]

Cooling off nicely down to 77 after reaching 94 earlier.