weathermedic Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, SI Mailman said: A view of the cell coming from CitiField. Slow mover which has prompted a flood advisory for Manhattan and Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 7/10 EWR: 86 New Brnswck: 85 PHL: 85 ACY: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 84 LGA: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 80 ISP: 80 JFK: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Another day, another storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, TriPol said: Another day, another storm. haha i was about to post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 0.16 in central park.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Something wrong with the local radars? Only accuweather is showing that it's rading. NOAA Radar and Weather.com don't show any rain in our area at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 4 hours ago, nycwinter said: it is almost mid july the days of summer are winding down.. Ha Ha - IMO the days of summer start winding down after about August 15, when the water is at its warmest, the trees are full of yakking katydids, the nights are (maybe) a bit cooler, and certainly deeper, and the fields are buzzing with crickets. That's just the beginning of the best part of Summer, provided it hasn't been too dry. Also, the hemp is maybe starting to show flowers, if that is of any interest, but that's only for the botanists among us. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Perfect out here in Suffolk. Had our block party and it was flawless. No rain and warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(72/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 74.8[-2.2]. Should be 77.2[-0.3] by the 19th. Precipitable water vectors keep clouds/some rain nearby till the 15th., I think. 72*(95%RH),here at 6am, overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Tuesday looks like it may be the first time that we had a 597 dm backdoor pattern in July. The forecast 597 dm height is among the highest on record for July. In the past, this has been associated with record heat instead of a cooler easterly flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy. An afternoon or evening shower or thundershower is possible as a warm front slowly edges northward. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 79° Newark: 84° Philadelphia: 87° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.0°; 15-Year: 85.9° Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with some showers. Extreme heat will topple additional records in parts of the western United States and also in Northern Africa and Spain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 Florida style pattern continues. Plenty of clouds the next 2-3 days. Piece of energy near the Bahamas now can be tracked Mon - Tue M riding along the rim of the Western Atlantic ridge as it builds westward. That feature will enhance any storms Tue and into Wed and limit any 90 degree readings with more clouds. Beyond there hazy, hot, humid later Wed (7/14 - Sat (7/17). 850 temps >18c by Thu (7/15) and Fri (7/16). Sun (7/18) in to early next week looks a bit unsettled as the W Atlt Ridge is shoved east and the Western heat machine surgeds. Should see pieces of the heat machine peel east pushing heat into the plains, GL and then into the NE. Next surge of the Atlantic Ridge timing could develop into a very hot finish to July. Overall Florida like humid, hot and plenty of rain chances. No record heat the next 10 days but the warm to hot pattern continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 11 hours ago, Rjay said: Can't wait til I can start the winter is winding down posts on January 1st. Just start the winter cancel thread around Halloween and save the frustration. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida during my life and the biggest difference is they still actually see sunshine on days when it rains. I feel like we are more tropical rain forest like with rain every few hours and constant clouds. Lately once it starts to rain it just doesn’t let up. So far this has not been an enjoyable summer for seasonal businesses, pools, golf courses, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted July 11, 2021 Share Posted July 11, 2021 39 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: I’ve spent a lot of time in Florida during my life and the biggest difference is they still actually see sunshine on days when it rains. I feel like we are more tropical rain forest like with rain every few hours and constant clouds. Lately once it starts to rain it just doesn’t let up. So far this has not been an enjoyable summer for seasonal businesses, pools, golf courses, etc. Completely agree, its been cloudy fairly persistently with occasional breaks. I'd typically expect a few sunny days in a row in the summer before a system or t storms threaten. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Clouds yielded to some sunshine this afternoon sending temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s. The humidity made temperatures feel closer to 90° in many spots. Tomorrow will be partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and heavy thunderstorms could develop producing flooding in poor drainage areas and adjacent to streams and rivers following the wettest first 10 days on record in July in parts of the region. Out West, another bout of extreme heat is underway. Already, some impressive high temperatures have occurred. Select readings today included: Death Valley, CA: 128° (old record: 127°, 2002)* Las Vegas: 114° Needles, CA: 116° Phoenix: 111° * - 129° in 1913 is unreliable. Tomorrow will be another scorching day. Afterward, the heat will ease. By the end of the heatwave, Death Valley could be near or even above its annual record of 10 125° or above days. That record was set in 1913 (unreliable) and then tied in 2013 and 2017. In the long-range, the second half of July and August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. The mean temperature for New York City during the July 16-31 period was 79.4° and the mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for July 16-31 was 77.9° and 76.0° for August. 75% of the July 16-31 cases and 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around June 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.18°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +14.96 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.913 today. On July 9 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.333 (RMM). The July 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.000 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (near normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 7/11 PHL: 88 New Brnswck: 85 ACY: 84 TTN: 84 EWR: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 BLM: 81 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 NYC: 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Thats a nice MCS in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said: Thats a nice MCS in PA Sounds like it could hold together Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0511 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1015 PM EDT Sun Jul 11 2021 Areas affected...Portions of the Northern Mid-Atlantic...New York and Southern New England Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 120214Z - 120814Z SUMMARY...The threat for some areas of flash flooding will continue into the overnight hours from areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. DISCUSSION...A low amplitude shortwave impulse embedded in deep layer southwest flow continues to advance progressively off to the northeast with the energy crossing the northern Mid-Atlantic and advancing toward southern NY and adjacent areas of southern New England. This energy has been driving a fairly large area of heavy showers and thunderstorms this evening along and adjacent to a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped west to east across PA. In fact the latest radar imagery continues to show a forward propagating MCS advancing toward eastern PA which has been sustained by a pool of MLCAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg focused across much of southeast to east-central PA. Stronger mid-level flow/shear also continues to play a role in storm organization with this activity. Well to the north of the front, there has been some heavy stratiform rain and embedded elevated convection associated with the warm air advection pattern impacting areas of north-central to northeast PA and adjacent areas of south-central NY. In fact, there has also been a notable corridor of enhanced low-level frontogenetical forcing in the 1000 to 850 mb layer which has helped to sustain a narrow axis of more enhanced rainfall with efficient rainfall processes yielding heavier rain rates. PWs have continued to increase with values of 1.8 to 2 inches in place given the deeper layer southwest flow advancing through the Mid-Atlantic states and toward southern NY and southern New England. Going into the overnight hours, the aforementioned band of convection will foster heavy rainfall and at least some flash flooding concerns for areas of eastern PA, and potentially getting into parts of northern NJ and far southeast NY. However, this activity should generally begin to weaken after midnight given an increasingly stable boundary layer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Went from a maritime like airmass with llvl drizzle and easterly winds to a complete sauna. Can feel the moisture in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Picked up 0.64" of rain so far today. Current temp 72/DP 71/RH 97% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Temp here as of 6AM 72/DP 70/RH 96% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(73/88), or +2.0. Month to date is 74.7[-2.3]. Should be about 76.9[-0.5] by the 20th. Rain today by 3pm? EURO with no 90's for the next 10 days but does have 3". GFS has 4 90's, and less than 2". CI was lost in a clammy fog last evening. 73*(95%RH) here at 6am, hazy blue. 78* by 9am. 83* by Noon. 84*(81%RH) at 1pm. ---Feels like 94* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Morning thoughts… Between 2 am and 3 am, Central Park received 1.35” of rain. Since hourly data was first recorded in 1943, there have been only 12 such days (including today). This is the first time two such deluges occurred within the same month, with 1.56” hourly rainfall on July 8 and 1.35” today. 2006 is the only prior year with two such amounts, but the first event occurred on June 2 and the second occurred on August 10. As a result of this morning’s rainfall, July 2021 now ranks as the 7th wettest July on record. Records go back to 1869. It will be partly to mostly cloudy. Heavy showers and thundershowers are likely across a slowly advancing warm front. Flash flooding is possible in some locations. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 91° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.0° Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0° Additional rain is likely tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Florida like forecast, hot, humid and routine storms next few days. Where the sun comes out temps will spike to near 90. Western Atlantic Ridge Building in Mon - Sat. Later Wed (7/14) through Sat (7/18) looks like the peak heat with 3,4 days of 90s. 850 temps jump to >18c in that period so where its sunny enough for long enough - the hot spots could top in the upper 90s. A cod front come through this weekend but is slow to progress so the period later Sat (7/18 into early next week 7/21 it looks a bit unsettled. Western ridge is pumping heat and should begin to drift eater later next week. Appears any break in heat chances will yield in the 7/25 period. Overall warm to hot - humid and stormy pattern continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Morning thoughts… Between 2 am and 3 am, Central Park received 1.35” of rain. Since hourly data was first recorded in 1943, there have been only 12 such days (including today). This is the first time two such deluges occurred within the same month, with 1.56” hourly rainfall on July 8 and 1.35” today. 2006 is the only prior year with two such amounts, but the first event occurred on June 2 and the second occurred on August 10. As a result of this morning’s rainfall, July 2021 now ranks as the 7th wettest July on record. Records go back to 1869. It will be partly to mostly cloudy. Heavy showers and thundershowers are likely across a slowly advancing warm front. Flash flooding is possible in some locations. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 89° Philadelphia: 91° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.1°; 15-Year: 86.0° Newark: 30-Year: 87.2°; 15-Year: 88.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 88.1°; 15-Year: 89.0° Additional rain is likely tomorrow. I mostly missed out on this and got some tail end rain. For the record, this was 2:30AM today: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 Current temp 89/DP 75/RH 65% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 I looked up some of the wettest storms for July in NYC...July 1980 had a deluge of 3.47" in 8 hours...1997 had a 29 hour storm accumulating 4.62"...I'm not sure if I missed any storms on this list... 4.62"...7/24-25/1997...29 hours...3am-7am... 4.35"...7/26-27/2000...30 hours...3am-8am... 4.33"...7/05-06/1901...not sure if this was one storm or two... 4.06"...7/08-09/2021...21 hours...2pm-11am... 3.98"...7/30-31/1889...26 hours...12pm-2pm... 3.60"...7/29-30/1971...26 hours...2pm-3pm... 3.56"...7/30/1960.........15 hours...1am-3pm... 3.47"...7/29/1980...........8 hours...8am-3pm...2.59" between 9am-11am... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted July 12, 2021 Share Posted July 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, uncle W said: I looked up some of the wettest storms for July in NYC...July 1980 had a deluge of 3.47" in 8 hours...1997 had a 29 hour storm accumulating 4.62"...I'm not sure if I missed any storms on this list... 4.62"...7/24-25/1997...29 hours...3am-7am... 4.35"...7/26-27/2000...30 hours...3am-8am... 4.33"...7/05-06/1901...not sure if this was one storm or two... 4.06"...7/08-09/2021...21 hours...2pm-11am... 3.98"...7/30-31/1889...26 hours...12pm-2pm... 3.60"...7/29-30/1971...26 hours...2pm-3pm... 3.56"...7/30/1960.........15 hours...1am-3pm... 3.47"...7/29/1980...........8 hours...8am-3pm...2.59" between 9am-11am... These numbers are so localized though. I had 7.5+ inches in queens in an afternoon in aug 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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