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Fantastic event! I'm just lovin' it :) Ive had rolling, non stop thunder for just about 5 minutes now. I only got a few hundredths of precip but it came down hard. @Juliancolton pointed out a cool feature in the NW thread and it was happening right on top of me. The sea breeze front ran up the east side of the t-storm front that was coming through and sparked a storm at the intersection. It's still rolling NNE of me and the thunder is insane. It's still going HAHA!

@forkyfork you would have enjoyed this.

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18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Fantastic event! I'm just lovin' it :) Ive had rolling, non stop thunder for just about 5 minutes now. I only got a few hundredths of precip but it came down hard. @Juliancolton pointed out a cool feature in the NW thread and it was happening right on top of me. The sea breeze front ran up the east side of the t-storm front that was coming through and sparked a storm at the intersection. It's still rolling NNE of me and the thunder is insane. It's still going HAHA!

@forkyfork you would have enjoyed this.

Lots of thunder here from a storm that went up just a couple miles to my SE. Temp fell from 95 to 86 after the gust front blasted through

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11 hours ago, lee59 said:

If you look at the high temps around the northeast that donsutherland1 listed a few posts up, you will see Newark was the hottest. This does not surprise me, they seem to be close to the hottest during most every heat wave. If anything, when you compare Central Park and Newark, it certainly shows how thermometer placement can make quite a difference. 

My guess is that the actual high for this heatwave in Central Park away from the trees was 95°or 96° instead of 92°. The tree growth around the sensor became pronounced by the early 1990s. So it’s possible the sensor began to get blocked by the trees during the 1980s. The June monthly max  prior to the 1980s had Central Park 1° cooler than EWR and 2° warmer than LGA. So I compared the average June monthly maximum temperatures from 1961-1980 before the tree growth to 2001-2020 with the sensor in deep shade.

Current heatwave maximum temperature 

NYC….92

EWR….97

LGA……95

1961-1980 June average maximum monthly high temperature 

NYC…..94

EWR….95

LGA…..92

2001-2020

NYC…..92……..-2

EWR…..96…….+1

LGA……94……..+2

NYC bias corrected to match a 1° rise at EWR….95°

NYC bias corrected to match a 2° rise at LGA….96°

NYC has only reached 95° in 2 Junes from 2001-2020 with the trees shading the sensor

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Season
2008 96 96
2011 95 95


No trees blocking the sensor allowed 9 Junes to reach 95° or greater from 1961-1980

The 101° June max from 1961-1980 was 5° warmer than the 96° from 2001-2020

 

Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jun
Season
1966 101 101
1964 99 99
1969 96 96
1967 96 96
1963 96 96
1961 96 96
1974 95 95
1973 95 95
1965 95 95

 

 

 

 

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51 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My guess is that the actual high for this heatwave in Central Park away from the trees was 95°or 96° instead of 92°. The tree growth around the sensor became pronounced by the early 1990s. So it’s possible the sensor began to get blocked by the trees during the 1980s. The June monthly max  prior to the 1980s had Central Park 1° cooler than EWR and 2° warmer than LGA. So I compared the average June monthly maximum temperatures from 1961-1980 before the tree growth to 2001-2020 with the sensor in deep shade.

Current heatwave maximum temperature 

NYC….92

EWR….97

LGA……95

1961-1980 June average maximum monthly high temperature 

NYC…..94

EWR….95

LGA…..92

2001-2020

NYC…..92……..-2

EWR…..96…….+1

LGA……94……..+2

NYC bias corrected to match a 1° rise at EWR….95°

NYC bias corrected to match a 2° rise at LGA….96°

 

 

I think if they cut back the foliage, the CP temps would be slightly higher during the day and slightly cooler at night.

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Summerlike warmth again toasted the Northeast. Numerous daily records were set in northern New England, New Brunswick and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Albany: 90°
Allentown: 92°
Atlantic City: 91°
Baltimore: 95°
Bangor: 93° (old record: 90°, 1936)
Boston: 96°
Burlington: 96° (old record: 94°, 1999)
Caribou: 92° (old record: 84°, 1991)
Chibougamau, QC: 87° (old record: 83°, 1991)
Concord, NH: 94°
Georgetown, DE: 94°
Edmunston, NB: 92° (old record: 81°, 2006)
Fredericton, NB: 94° (old record: 86°, 1999)
Gaspé, QC: 92° (old record: 85°, 1991)
Harrisburg: 93°
Hartford: 94°
La Tuque, QC: 92° (old record: 89°, 2008)
Manchester, NH: 95°
Miramichi, NB: 94° (old record: 79°, 2017)
Moncton, NB: 90° (old record: 83°,1999)
Montreal: 89°
New York City-LGA: 93°
New York City-NYC: 91°
Newark: 95°
Philadelphia: 94°
Plattsburgh: 93° (old record: 88°, 1959)
Portland: 94°
Poughkeepsie: 94° (tied record set in 2008)
Providence: 91°
Quebec City: 90° (old record: 85°, 2008)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 87° (old record: 80°, 1995)
Saguenay, QC: 93° (old record: 83°, 1974)
Scranton: 90°
Sherbrooke, QC: 87° (tied record set in 2008)
St. Stephen, NB: 94° (old record: 81°, 2014)
Sterling, VA: 91°
Trenton: 91°
Trois-Rivières, QC: 90° (old record: 84°, 2008)
Val d'Or, QC: 89° (old record: 86°, 1955)
Washington, DC: 90°
Wilmington, DE: 91°

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 7):

Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 5 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 5 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 3 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 7 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 4 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 4 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.539 today.

On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.961 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.994 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

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11 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

How does Burlington VT rate 96, when Albany at the tarmac hits 90? That seems illogical. Granted I’ve never been to Burlington, but I can’t imagine Lake Champlain has no cooling effect on that large town. 

No effect, airport is much higher and not near the lake.  BTV is a notorious hot spot under certain conditions, in this case a dew point boundary came south which enhanced mixing and raised temps behind it

image.png.64ee841bd93d0390281b9ae7045e09dc.png

image.png.32efeaae6e9d96eb43a374b53ac38c1e.png

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° below normal).

Think you mean 2.0 above normal right?

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

No effect, airport is much higher and not near the lake.  BTV is a notorious hot spot under certain conditions, in this case a dew point boundary came south which enhanced mixing and raised temps behind it

image.png.64ee841bd93d0390281b9ae7045e09dc.png

image.png.32efeaae6e9d96eb43a374b53ac38c1e.png

This is also an “over the top” hot airmass where the worst of the heat (relatively) goes north of us, which is becoming more common. Notice low to mid 90s all the way to northern ME. Boston was also about 5 degrees warmer than us. 

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At 10 pm, the temperature at Central Park was 82° and it was 80° at LaGuardia Airport. Both locations are on track to break their daily record high minimum temperatures. The current records are:

Central Park: 73°, 1883 (New York City area record)

LaGuardia Airport: 72°, 1968 and 1999

Both locations have had a daily minimum temperature of 76° so far.

It should be noted that the 73° minimum temperature is the lowest New York City area record high minimum temperature for June. New York City area refers to JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Central Park.

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Summerlike warmth again toasted the Northeast. Numerous daily records were set in northern New England, New Brunswick and Quebec. High temperatures included:

Albany: 90°
Allentown: 92°
Atlantic City: 91°
Baltimore: 95°
Bangor: 93° (old record: 90°, 1936)
Boston: 96°
Burlington: 96° (old record: 94°, 1999)
Caribou: 92° (old record: 84°, 1991)
Chibougamau, QC: 87° (old record: 83°, 1991)
Concord, NH: 94°
Georgetown, DE: 94°
Edmunston, NB: 92° (old record: 81°, 2006)
Fredericton, NB: 94° (old record: 86°, 1999)
Gaspé, QC: 92° (old record: 85°, 1991)
Harrisburg: 93°
Hartford: 94°
La Tuque, QC: 92° (old record: 89°, 2008)
Manchester, NH: 95°
Miramichi, NB: 94° (old record: 79°, 2017)
Moncton, NB: 90° (old record: 83°,1999)
Montreal: 89°
New York City-LGA: 93°
New York City-NYC: 91°
Newark: 95°
Philadelphia: 94°
Plattsburgh: 93° (old record: 88°, 1959)
Portland: 94°
Poughkeepsie: 94° (tied record set in 2008)
Providence: 91°
Quebec City: 90° (old record: 85°, 2008)
Rivière-du-Loup, QC: 87° (old record: 80°, 1995)
Saguenay, QC: 93° (old record: 83°, 1974)
Scranton: 90°
Sherbrooke, QC: 87° (tied record set in 2008)
St. Stephen, NB: 94° (old record: 81°, 2014)
Sterling, VA: 91°
Trenton: 91°
Trois-Rivières, QC: 90° (old record: 84°, 2008)
Val d'Or, QC: 89° (old record: 86°, 1955)
Washington, DC: 90°
Wilmington, DE: 91°

90° Days for Select Cities (through June 7):

Albany: 1 (2020: 13 days; 5-Year Average: 13.6 days)
Allentown: 5 (2020: 24 days; 5-Year Average: 27.6 days)
Baltimore: 6 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 44.6 days)
Boston: 5 (2020: 14 days; 5-Year Average: 17.2 days)
Bridgeport: 2 (2020: 11 days; 5-Year Average: 13.4 days)
Burlington: 4 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 13.0 days)
Harrisburg: 5 (2020: 35 days; 5-Year Average: 30.6 days)
Hartford: 5 (2020: 39 days; 5-Year Average: 29.0 days)
Islip: 2 (2020: 8 days; 5-Year Average: 9.4 days)
New York City-JFK: 2 (2020: 12 days; 5-Year Average: 10.2 days)
New York City-LGA: 3 (2020: 34 days; 5-Year Average: 29.4 days)
New York City-NYC: 2 (2020: 20 days; 5-Year Average: 18.2 days)
Newark: 7 (2020: 31 days; 5-Year Average: 31.2 days)
Philadelphia: 6 (2020: 36 days; 5-Year Average: 34.6 days)
Scranton: 5 (2020: 25 days; 5-Year Average: 16.4 days)
Washington, DC: 7 (2020: 46 days; 5-Year Average: 50.8 days)

New York City-Newark Average: 4 (2020: 22 days)
...Expected: 4 (based on regression equation tied to JFK-LGA-EWR data)

The hot weather will likely last into the middle of the week before a cooling trend commences. Late this week and weekend could see cooler than normal conditions.

Overall, the first half of June will likely wind up much warmer than normal. The MJO's passage through Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during the May 15-25 period coupled with ENSO Region 1+2 temperature anomalies above -1.0°C and below +1.0°C, as has been the case this year, has typically seen warmth in the East during the first 10 days of June. Cooler conditions typically prevailed when the ENSO Region 1+2 anomalies were outside that range.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around June 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.539 today.

On June 5 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 0.961 (RMM). The June 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.994 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal).

 

Don how does Boston get so hot on an onshore wind, they were warmer than Newark?

 

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55 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is also an “over the top” hot airmass where the worst of the heat (relatively) goes north of us, which is becoming more common. Notice low to mid 90s all the way to northern ME. Boston was also about 5 degrees warmer than us. 

whats causing the heat to go north of us?  one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us?

 

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40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how does Boston get so hot on an onshore wind, they were warmer than Newark?

 

When they were warmest today they had a west wind. Downslope probably has something to do with it. Same mechanism as what heats up places east of NYC with west winds.

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42 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don how does Boston get so hot on an onshore wind, they were warmer than Newark?

 

The hottest part of the air mass moved across New England. Boston also had a westerly component to its wind direction for much of the day.

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44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the heat to go north of us?  one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us?

 

I don't have a height anomaly map in front of me but the high/ridge orientation is further north than usual which drives the heat further north-from the Midwest over top of our area. 850mb temps in this airmass are actually highest over Quebec. 

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54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats causing the heat to go north of us?  one would logically think that heat goes from south to north and therefore has to pass through us before it can get north of us?

 

The air mass moved east-northeastward from the Northern Plains and southern Canada. The core of the heat passed to our north. In addition, there was some flow off the southwestern Atlantic and contributed to higher humidity for the New York Metro Area.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

I don't have a height anomaly map in front of me but the high/ridge orientation is further north than usual which drives the heat further north-from the Midwest over top of our area. 850mb temps in this airmass are actually highest over Quebec. 

thats a good point, I was trying to picture what causes Boston to have a westerly wind while we have more of a southerly wind.  I've been seeing this more and more in our recent summers and it seems to be geometrically more likely with a further north heat ridge.  So with the heat ridge further north and closer to our latitude it gives us a southerly component to the wind while north of us gets the westerly wind.

 

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