donsutherland1 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Morning thoughts... This morning, temperatures were in the 50s across the region. 7 am temperatures included: Albany: 50°; Allentown: 51°; Bridgeport: 58°; Islip: 57°; New York City: 57°; Newark: 57°; Philadelphia: 57°; Poughkeepsie: 52°; and White Plains: 55°. Brilliant sunshine will be accompanied by a refreshing breeze. After a cool start, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 80° Philadelphia: 77° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 81.9° Newark: 30-Year: 84.3°; 15-Year: 84.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.5°; 15-Year: 85.7° Tomorrow will be fair and pleasant. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 48.7 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset for lows. Low of 72 here in Orlando, looking forward to landing in the crisp weather later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: The last 8 days of June are averaging 77degs.(68/85), or +1.0. Month to date is 73.1[+2.2]. June should end near 73.6[+1.6]. July Fourth WE again looking like a rainout. 56*(75%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. You always say the weekend is looking like a rainout. One of these days it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 52F. Crisp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: You always say the weekend is looking like a rainout. One of these days it will happen and 7/4 is 10 plus days out....LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Currently 60 here, bottomed out at 51 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 Our area may be able to challenge the June 500mb height record next week. Looks like the OKX record for June is near 595 dm. The PAC NW all-time record could fall with heights above 597 dm. It appears that these record breaking ridges that get stuck in place are related to areas of marine heatwaves and drought on land. We have seen frequent near to record WAR amplifications near the Northeast in recent years with the record SSTs east of New England. The Western US has also experienced record ridging in association with the warm blob off the West Coast and historic drought conditions. So these features seem to go together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: 52F. Crisp Beautiful morning, blue skies, cool. Going to enjoy every moment before the inevitable humidity of summer creeps back in! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 48 hours of California like weather before Miami pattern arrives. Dry, sunny and very nice out mid 70s to near 80 today (wed) and Thu (6/24). Transition to a more southerly / humid flow and warmer temperatures. Western Atlantic Ridge builds back west 6/27 into July. Humid and warm - hot a times. 90s potential 6/28 into July. Increased rain / storms chances in a Miami style pattern. Way beyond it continues to look overall warm to hot as the W Atalntic Ridge looks to grow along the east coast, need to watch as pieces of the western heat migrate east and merge with the eastern ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, bluewave said: Our area may be able to challenge the June 500mb height record next week. Looks like the OKX record for June is near 595 dm. The PAC NW all-time record could fall with heights above 597 dm. It appears that these record breaking ridges that get stuck in place are related to areas of marine heatwaves and drought on land. We have seen frequent near to record WAR amplifications near the Northeast in recent years with the record SSTs east of New England. The Western US has also experienced record ridging in association with the warm blob off the West Coast and historic drought conditions. So these features seem to go together. Hopefully that ridge shifts further SW so we can get a drier albeit hotter pattern rather than a hot and humid one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 was 56 in manhattan this morning their was a feeling of fall in the air ::) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, nycwinter said: was 56 in manhattan this morning their was a feeling of fall in the air ::) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 53 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the last heat wave it was 80 or above at midnight these overnight temps on that map won't bother me much. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 34 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the last heat wave it was 80 or above at midnight these overnight temps on that map won't bother me much. Those would be dewpoints on that map… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 35 minutes ago, TriPol said: If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous. Move to San Diego CA and every day would be like this. A bit boring if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, TriPol said: If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous. not warm enough 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 6 hours ago, uofmiami said: 48.7 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset for lows. Low of 72 here in Orlando, looking forward to landing in the crisp weather later today. Today’s a beauty. 75 this afternoon and not a cloud in the sky. Doesn’t get any better in the summer. Enjoy before the disgusting humidity comes back with the ridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: Makes me want to vomit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 4 hours ago, dmillz25 said: Hopefully that ridge shifts further SW so we can get a drier albeit hotter pattern rather than a hot and humid one Towards the end of the Euro run the ridge flattens a little which is when temps might really go up. The steep ridge means the hottest temps shoot north of us and we get somewhat milder temps but awful dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Towards the end of the Euro run the ridge flattens a little which is when temps might really go up. The steep ridge means the hottest temps shoot north of us and we get somewhat milder temps but awful dewpoints. That’s what I’m dreading the higher dewpoints. I’ll take 100/50 over 90/70 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Move to San Diego CA and every day would be like this. A bit boring if you ask me A quick hike down to the nude beach will cure that boredom… /s 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 5 hours ago, TriPol said: If every morning could be like this morning and every day be like this day, we'd be living in paradise. Not a single soul would ever complain about about sunny, low humidity, and 71. Just gorgeous. I would like it somewhat regularly in the spring and summer but not every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 After a cool start, today saw temperatures rise into the middle and upper 70s. Out West, Phoenix experienced the second largest deluge on record for June 23, as showers and thundershowers delivered 0.17" of rain. Tomorrow will again feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. The end of the week and coming weekend will turn warmer. No excessive precipitation appears likely through the weekend. In the Pacific Northwest, an extreme to possibly historic heatwave could develop starting late this week. Monthly and possibly all-time record high temperatures in cities, including Seattle and Portland, could be challenged or broken. Records for select cities: Portland: June 26: 102°, 2006 June 28: 98°, 2000 June 29: 100°, 2008 June record: 102° All-time record: 107° Seattle: June 26: 90°, 2006 June 27: 92°, 2015 June 28: 91°, 1995 and 2008 June record: 96° All-time record: 103° Spokane: June 26: 100°, 1925 June 27: 102°, 2015 June 28: 105°, 2015 June record: 105° All-time record: 108° Climate change has increased the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events in the United States and worldwide. Further increases are likely in coming decades as the world's climate continues to warm. During the 1971-00 period, there was a statistical 0.9% probability that the temperature would reach or exceed 90° during June 26-28. For the 1991-20 period, that figure had increased to 2.0%. Actual outcomes saw Seattle record 90° temperatures on 1.1% of days within that period during 1971-00 and 4.4% during the 1991-20 timeframe. For Portland, the statistical probability of a 90° day during the June 26-28 period was 6.2% during the 1971-00 period and 10.4% during the 1991-20 period. The actual outcomes were 6.6% during the 1971-00 period and 12.2% during the 1991-20 period. That actual outcomes exceeded statistical outcomes is consistent with ongoing warming. In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 75% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature near 95.5°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +6.75 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.549 today. On June 21 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.868 (RMM). The June 20-adjusted amplitude was 0.737 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 89% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.6° (1.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 8 hours ago, bluewave said: It looks like the WAR is a little flatter on the 12z Euro. So the maximum 850mb temperatures are closer to our area. The Euro now has mid 90s in NJ with more SSW flow. But the dew points are still very high due to the trajectory from near the Bahamas. New Euro forecast for 0z Tuesday Old forecast That looks cooler than the older run hopefully that trends cooler because honestly who wants 90’s with high dews when you can have days like today 70’s with no humidity 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 The last 7 days of June are averaging 80degs.(70/89), or +5.0. Month to date is 72.7[+1.7]. June should end at 74.3[+2.3]. GFS with 12 90's during the next 16 days. 63*(70%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 68* by Noon. 71* by 3pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Bring it on! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 So long crisp, dry conditions. We start turning up the heat tomorrow. Crazy double ridge scenario with places like Portland shattering records as we approach 100F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be another sparkling summer day with bright sunshine, low humidity and comfortable temperatures. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places today. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 80° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 82.2°; 15-Year: 82.2° Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.7°; 15-Year: 86.0° A much warmer weekend lies ahead. An extreme to perhaps historic heatwave will likely begin to descend on the Pacific Northwest on Friday. At its height numerous June and perhaps all-time high temperature records will tumble, including at Portland and Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 24, 2021 Share Posted June 24, 2021 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: So long crisp, dry conditions. We start turning up the heat tomorrow. Crazy double ridge scenario with places like Portland shattering records as we approach 100F. I believe this is the first time we had 594+ dm ridges in the PAC NW and NE at the same time. Notice how those values for either location are outside the 30 year climo. So a continuation of the unusual wavelength patterns that have become more common since 2010. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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