Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    19,016
    Total Members
    49,013
    Most Online
    loganboehmewx
    Newest Member
    loganboehmewx
    Joined

June 2021


Stormlover74
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

78F 80% humidity. Mosquito fest. 

 

Absolutely disgusting out.

 

I’m going to sound old but I never remember a regular baseline weather like this in this area. It just makes you not want to go outside in what is supposed to be an outdoor season

The good news is the spectacular weather is coming back midweek. Dewpoints are going to fall to the bone dry 40s for wednesday and thursday. A repeat of last week with wednesday and thursday being top 10 days of the year type of weather.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

The good news is the spectacular weather is coming back midweek. Dewpoints are going to fall to the bone dry 40s for wednesday and thursday. A repeat of last week with wednesday and thursday being top 10 days of the year type of weather.

 I don’t want to read one complain about it!! hahaha

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

78F 80% humidity. Mosquito fest. 

 

Absolutely disgusting out.

 

I’m going to sound old but I never remember a regular baseline weather like this in this area. It just makes you not want to go outside in what is supposed to be an outdoor season

No doubt about it, it's more humid in the last 10 years....70 degree dewpoints used to be rare in my part of CT-now there's a bunch every summer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

78F 80% humidity. Mosquito fest. 

 

Absolutely disgusting out.

 

I’m going to sound old but I never remember a regular baseline weather like this in this area. It just makes you not want to go outside in what is supposed to be an outdoor season

That’s the reason why I despise the summer and relish the cold and snow of winter. Thus my avatar and name.:snowing:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this reminds me of july 2013

ecmwf_z500a_us_fh72-240.gif

 

10 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Ohhh W flow….

We had a 6 day heatwave with temps ranging anywhere from the low to upper 90's around mid month. The high temperature for the month topped out at 97 in NYC which probably means places just to the west over NE NJ topped out a bit hotter then that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Parts of the region again saw the temperature reach or exceed 90°. The heat will now depart through the remainder of the week.  

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler. Showers and thundershowers are likely. Wednesday and Thursday should feature abundant sunshine, low humidity, and refreshing temperatures. The end of the week and coming weekend could be unsettled.

In large part on account of Phoenix's recent extreme heat event, there is an implied 70% probability that June 2021 will become Phoenix's warmest June on record with a mean temperature above 95.0°. The existing record of 94.8° was set in 2013 and tied in 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around June 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.30°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was -13.71 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.361 today.

On June 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.809 (RMM). The June 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.068 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS keeps the major heat in the Pacific NW and Upper Rockies through July 4th. Very impressive ridging in the 594 to 600 dm range for those areas. We would need the WAR to retrograde in July to tap some of that major heat for our area. 

21 Jun to 28 Jun

B3C5938A-C39C-44E6-BB38-7B8D87988903.thumb.png.f48e635b9bd9a9ad1fd92596738741d2.png

28 Jun to 5 Jul

86C79540-79BD-440D-AFA2-902FCE27A107.thumb.png.784a99c8cd1487840bd674bef2cef4ad.png

Looks like chances for major heat are low before July 15th for us

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

 

We had a 6 day heatwave with temps ranging anywhere from the low to upper 90's around mid month. The high temperature for the month topped out at 97 in NYC which probably means places just to the west over NE NJ topped out a bit hotter then that. 

JFK hit 100 in July 2013.  NYC undermeasured as usual.  It was our last 100 reading.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 6/20/2021 at 7:25 AM, bluewave said:

We’ll need the WAR to retrograde back to the Plains or Rockies to have a shot at some westerly flow on the warmest days. Looks like the rest of June is a higher dew point southerly flow pattern. So 90s on the warmest of days rather than 100°. While places like like LGA have snuck in a few 100°s in recent years, the onshore flow has reduced our 100° potential. Newark just set the record for going 7 years with no 100° days. The previous record was 6 years from 1967 to 1972. But that was a cooler summer pattern. Notice how many more 90° days Newark has had during this stretch since 2013. So it has been a hot and humid summer pattern with high numbers of 90° days.

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature < 100 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Run Length
Ending Date
1 2892 2021-06-19
2 2602 1973-08-27
3 2176 1943-06-24
4 1473 1948-08-25
5 1462 1963-06-30
Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
Mean 0 0 0 0 2 4 12 8 3 0 0 0 29
2020 0 0 0 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 0 0 31
2019 0 0 0 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 0 0 27
2018 0 0 0 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 0 0 36
2017 0 0 0 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 0 0 22
2016 0 0 0 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 0 0 40
2015 0 0 0 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 0 0 35
2014 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 0 0 15
Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Annual
Mean 0 0 0 0 1 3 7 6 2 0 0 0 18
1972 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 4 1 0 0 0 21
1971 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 7 2 0 0 0 22
1970 0 0 0 0 2 2 5 8 5 0 0 0 22
1969 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 6 1 0 0 0 15
1968 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 9 1 0 0 0 23
1967 0 0 0 0 0 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 7

 

This looks more like the kind of pattern that brings TC up the coast rather than gets 100 degree temps to the coast.

In years where we had TC strikes in the same year that we had 100 degree temps (notably years like 1944, 1999, 2011, 2012), the TC strikes occurred after the main summer heat was over (late August through October.)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

 

BCB74ECC-18BB-4412-B530-19ED51544CCA.thumb.jpeg.50cc4ad04c37117441c5dd1bd64517e2.jpeg

 

Very interesting research. I have always considered the C-D boundary to extend from St. Louis to NYC, roughly following the Ohio river. Amazing how changes of a fraction of a degree can put you in a completely different climate zone. I guess the line has to be drawn somewhere, though.

When I looked at the Britannica article, though, it struck me that on the map, the Eastern seaboard of the US could not be based on a 26.6F  demarcation. I dug a little deeper and it turns out that the map is based on a 2007 revision which does, in fact, use 32.0F.

Thanks for sharing this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

 

BCB74ECC-18BB-4412-B530-19ED51544CCA.thumb.jpeg.50cc4ad04c37117441c5dd1bd64517e2.jpeg

 

 

I wouldn't mind if we started using the oceans for our water supply.  70% of the earth being covered by water is entirely too much.  We'd have a much better climate if we could get it down to 50% or so.

 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

That’s the reason why I despise the summer and relish the cold and snow of winter. Thus my avatar and name.:snowing:

Blame it on too much of the earth being covered by oceans.  We need to start using that water.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...