CIK62 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 74degs.(64/84), or about Normal. Month to date is 73.0[+3.3]. Should be about 73.3[+2.1] by the 24th. Not much phasing showing for Tues. AM with GOM system, so little rain. In true GFS style---the model went from 71 yesterday to 104 today, for July 01. I expect to see oodles of 100's for us during the next 6 weeks worth of runs. 64*(71%RH) here at 6am/7am, m. clear. 75* at 3pm. 80* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 80° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8° Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7° A warmer regime could begin to evolve late this week. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. It remains likely that Phoenix will see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record. The unseasonable heat will likely extend northward into southern Canada including Alberta and Saskatchewan. Daily Records for June 16: Phoenix: 115°, 1896 and 1974 (Forecast: 113° to 117°) ***smoke could hold down the readings by 1°-2° from the modeled values*** Tucson: 109°, 1985 and 1988 (Forecast: 111° to 115°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Yesterday, Denver had a high temperature of 101°. Since 1872, Denver has had 16 days on which the temperature reached 100° or higher in June. Just 1 (6%) day occurred prior to 1980. In contrast, 11 (69%) have occurred 2000 or later, including 9 (56%), which have occurred 2010 or later. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Could break that there tomorrow and even make a run at 110! Amazing at that elevation and proximity to a large lake. It should be cooler today (upper 90s to near 100). The heat has peaked there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 12 hours ago, jfklganyc said: It was absolutely brutal today. SLC had a temp of 37C when we took off Pretty extreme to see all-time record heat tied so early in the season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Looks like Needles and Death Valley were the only ones to exceed 120 so far. 120° High Temperatures (June 15, 2021) Death Valley, CA: 124° Needles, CA: 121° Blythe, CA: 120° Palm Springs, CA: 120° ***Earliest 120° temperature on record*** 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Gorgeous evening down to 56 and a remarkable stretch of weather the next 2 days. Pieces of some of the massive Rockies and southwest heat will head east and pending on clouds and storms offer the next shot at 90s on Saturday (6/19) and Sun 6/20. Monday (6/21) may be more cloudy and stormy ahead of any tropical remnants tracking into the region. Beyond there 6/24 and on it looks like east coast ridging builds back and potentially hooks with the Western Atlantic Ridge. Overall warm to hot June progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 71/51 at 1000. Just splendid out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 beautiful day if only the sun was not to bright it would be perfect.. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 the dews are coming 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: 1983 really seems to be like an early warning shot of the type of summers that have become more common in recent years Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 5 hours ago, wdrag said: Good Wednesday morning everyone, The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ. Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell. Typical. We’re in the time of the year where we pull teeth to get any decent precip event on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: the dews are coming due to the last heat wave my body has adapted to the heat and humidity bring it on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Great day out there-dry sunny breezy and 75 here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 72 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Typical. We’re in the time of the year where we pull teeth to get any decent precip event on LI. A # of us think best way to get heavy QPF on LI, se coastal New England including Cape Cod: WARM front south with WAA as the front advances northward toward LI and CC with PWAT growing and a nice inflow at 850MB. The lift seems to do the trick w thunderstorms and/or heavy showers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Have to wonder if those extreme temps in the west will eventually come here during July/August. Personally hope not, but would not be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 Nice pleasantly cool night tonight with low dew points. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Tomorrow will be mainly sunny and slightly cooler than normal. Afterward, a warming trend will likely develop as some of the heat baking the Southwest moves into the region. The temperature could reach or exceed 90° in parts of the region during the weekend. Out West, an extreme heatwave continued in the Southwest, including Phoenix. High temperatures included: Albuquerque: 100° (tied record set in 1980) Blythe, CA: 113° Casper: 96° (old record: 94°, 1988) Death Valley, CA: 125° Denver: 100° (old record: 96°, 2020) Flagstaff: 92° (tied record set in 1940) Las Vegas: 116° (old record: 114°, 1940) Needles, CA: 118° (tied record set in 2000) Phoenix: 115° (tied record set in 1896 and tied in 1974) Salt Lake City: 97° Tucson: 114° (old record: 109°, 1985 and 1988) ***5th consecutive record high temperature*** At Tucson, the temperature reached 110° or above for the fifth consecutive day. That ties June 24-28, 1990 for the second longest streak on record. Records go back to September 1894. At Denver, the temperature reached 100° for the second consecutive day. This is the earliest two consecutive-day period on record where the temperature reached or exceeded 100° at Denver. The prior record was set during June 22-23, 2012. The extreme heat will continue into the weekend. The temperature could reach 115° on multiple days in Phoenix during this time. For reference, Phoenix's daily records for the June 17-19 period are posted below. Record high maximum temperatures: June 17: 114°, 2014 June 18: 115°, 1989 and 2015 June 19: 118°, 2016 and 2017 Record high minimum temperatures: June 17: 88°, 1986 and 2008 June 18: 88°, 2008 June 19: 86°, 1958 and 1959 Phoenix will very likely see the earliest temperature above 115° on record tomorrow. The existing record was set on June 19, 2016 when the temperature reached 118°. That record was tied in 2017. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around June 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +17.15 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.172 today. On June 14 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.290 (RMM). The June 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.265 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 74.0° (2.0° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 17 hours ago, nycwinter said: beautiful day if only the sun was not to bright it would be perfect.. not too bright? you want it to be a red dwarf lol? or are you rooting for an eclipse that lasts all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 17 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices. it's like 1983 was a warning shot for our hot humid summers and 1977-78 was a warning shot for our snowy but not very cold winters lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 17 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices. wow 1999 and 2011 are on that highest heat index list a lot too. Impressive that they calculate it to hundredths of a degree lol. Most of the days on the first graph had highs at or above 100. Interesting that none of those highest dew point days on the second graph had a high temp at or above 100? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Some rare 40s this morning. Got down to 48F or something that we may not see again until late August or September. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 52F at 630am This weather is a gift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 76degs.(66/85), or +2.5. Month to is 72.8[+2.9]. Should be about 73.8[+2.6] by the 25th. June 18-22 near HW criteria. EURO with 3" 10 days from now----GFS with same system lagging by two days, and little rain when it does get here. 62*(40%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 70* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 54 in New Brunswick at 7AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 53 this morning here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 51 degree low here this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly sunny and pleasant. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most places. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 78° Newark: 83° Philadelphia: 79° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 80.3°; 15-Year: 80.1° Newark: 30-Year: 82.5°; 15-Year: 82.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.8°; 15-Year: 84.0° A warming trend will begin tomorrow ahead of a very warm weekend. Out West, record-breaking heat will continue across the Southwest, including Phoenix. Phoenix will likely see its earliest 116° or above temperature on record today. Daily Records for June 17: Phoenix: 114°, 1896 and 2015 (Forecast: 115° to 119°) Tucson: 109°, 1917, 1985, 1989, 2008, and 2015 (Forecast: 110° to 114°) *-Forecast range is 1 sigma below and above the forecast mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 Continue to monitor Trop system for infusion qpf into NYC subforum Tuesday - if it misses southeast of us, then it looks rather dry to me the rest of June, despite few cfp severe weather threats. I like the Great Lakes trough developing early next week to draw some of the tropical moisture up here for 12 hours but do realize this could still track south of us. Have a day. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 47 this morning, beautiful 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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