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Looks like some heavy downpours tonight with the elevated convection. 

3406A320-1398-4DED-907E-DCC7E551B513.thumb.png.a69b7979177e7f93076f648c358dae2a.png

 

 

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wouldn't surprise me if the coastal came back-we're in that range where the models lose it...then it comes back in a day or two...

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11 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

I was hoping it would actually rain today, the pollen on the cars is terrible. That blob on the radar is a tease.

just a a couple sprinkles reaching the ground here from time to time-the airmass is still dry....we should get some rains next 2 days of out this....

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Better transmit a MAYDAY on the next 10 days of this month.       As mentioned earlier, only a small % of the possible sunshine for the next 10 is likely, and most of it consumed on May 06.      Solar Summer starts May 08 at this latitude----so let's get to it.

Want to worry about wind gusts?-----some 40+mph could happen May 10 as winds flip from S to N.       May 10 onced showed 18C 850mb T, but has since mellowed out.

 

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Tomorrow will likely be very warm, especially from Philadelphia southward. Wednesday will likely also be warm, though not to the extent of tomorrow. A push of noticeably cooler air is likely late in the week. Such cool shots have often occurred when with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 region (-1.0°C in the latest weekly data).

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was -12.62 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.613 today.

On May 1 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 3.621 (RMM). The April 30-adjusted amplitude was 3.486 (RMM).

The May 1 amplitude of 3.621 is the highest amplitude on record for Phase 1. The prior record was 3.602, which was set on October 18, 2011. The prior May record was 2.822, which occurred on May 18, 1991.

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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plenty of moisture moving in to support a rainy night for most of us, plus a bonus TOR warning in Maryland.

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19 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

plenty of moisture moving in to support a rainy night for most of us, plus a bonus TOR warning in Maryland.

yep warm front right on the M/D line.   lots of rain to the north of it.

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Baseball size hail severe warning for San Antonio. They were just hit last week by similar storms. TX getting slammed this severe season. 

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WHERE HAVE ALL THE 80's GONE?       GONE TO PHASE 1 ----- EVERY ONE.

1620064800-RZLtujtd9Uc.png

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31 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

WHERE HAVE ALL THE 80's GONE?       GONE TO PHASE 1 ----- EVERY ONE.

1620064800-RZLtujtd9Uc.png

The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1.

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The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or -3.0.

No 80's showing till near May 18.      No 850mb T pops.       EXT. ENS. looks boring into first week of June.     Yikes.      Pockets of warmth  in the stratosphere are controlling the show.     Why didn't the models know this sooner?

53*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet-----rain ended by 4am.        58* by 9am.        62* by Noon.         69*  by 3pm.        71* at 3:30pm.      M. Sunny for last    90mins.        Back to 62* by 6pm.         59* by 7pm.        55* by 11pm.

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies are above normal on the rainfall through May 17th. 


May 3-10

DF1BC25D-A6AC-446C-8E80-5D9EE741992D.thumb.png.bbbb1d1c497fd8407effcc0fa2c6191e.png

May 10-17

DDCCB14D-7A42-45B0-8C81-1EAB91862392.thumb.png.b98a038e3cb5b2e51761a2abe355c4ff.png

 

 

About time. Last nights rains were definitely beneficial. Soil moisture has really been dropping as new plantings I have done we’re starting to wilt with irrigation not on yet for the season. 

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Morning thoughts...

It will be variably cloudy and warmer than yesterday. Some showers remain possible, especially in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Temperatures will likely reach the lower 70s in the northern Middle Atlantic region to the lower 80s in southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 72°

Newark: 74°

Philadelphia: 83°

After mid-week, a period of generally cooler than normal temperatures will develop.

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9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The time to look for 80s—probably multiple days—will probably be during the May 20-31 period. The pattern often snaps into a very warm one a few weeks after an exceptionally strong MJO passage through Phase 1.

Interesting how the first 90° date at Newark remains unchanged around May 20th since 1971. But the date of the first 80° has moved up from April 27 to March 31. So a late month warm up would match the MJO progression and the longer term trends.

1184ECE8-A9B1-40F5-BA39-CAA565451478.thumb.jpeg.09d90be07d9521623a2644d76d947331.jpeg
9205455E-7A61-407F-9BCA-EA58383A608C.thumb.jpeg.9661e68ad431757d687651060c699dfa.jpeg

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1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

The next 8 days are averaging 57degs.(49/65), or -3.0.

No 80's showing till near May 18.      No 850mb T pops.       EXT. ENS. looks boring into first week of June.     Yikes.      Pockets of warmth  in the stratosphere are controlling the show.     Why didn't the models know this sooner?

53*(95%RH) here at 6am, overcast, streets wet.

Yeah so weird how late June average temperatures aren't showing up in early May. 

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Interesting how the first 90° date at Newark remains unchanged around May 20th since 1971. But the date of the first 80° has moved up from April 27 to March 31. So a late month warm up would match the MJO progression and the longer term trends.

1184ECE8-A9B1-40F5-BA39-CAA565451478.thumb.jpeg.09d90be07d9521623a2644d76d947331.jpeg
9205455E-7A61-407F-9BCA-EA58383A608C.thumb.jpeg.9661e68ad431757d687651060c699dfa.jpeg

I also imagine that it's just a lot harder to hit 90 vs 80 especially earlier in the year. 

We've seen the averages go up a lot especially mins but the extreme highs are still hard to come by because there's likely a limit to how far we could go at least for now.

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This may as currently modeled could see a similar progression to 2016 where the first 2 weeks plus featured days that  were cooler than normal and generally had highs low low 70s or below.  Then surge of heat by the 22nd or so.  

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Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections.  Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR.  Not sure how much clearing we get though.

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17 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections.  Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR.  Not sure how much clearing we get though.

yeahs warm fronts always have trouble this time of year-seems models underestimate  the still cold Atlantic....

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22 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

wouldn't surprise me if the coastal came back-we're in that range where the models lose it...then it comes back in a day or two...

0 81" two-day total

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