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There is some clearing or breaks in the clouds nosing into EPA and SNJ, so perhaps some pokes of sun by 2PM

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

The minimums are increasing faster than the maximums across the region. So the number of 70° minimums has doubled or tripled from 1981 to 2020. This is the case at urban,rural, and suburban stations. My guess is that this is related to the big increase in humidity and clouds at night as the climate warms. Since the Central Park station has become so overgrown with vegetation, POU to our north now has more 90° days than NYC. But the NYC nighttime minimums are increasing just as fast as other stations. So you can see it’s an artificial shading effect due to poor sensor sitting under the trees and bushes.

Change in 90° highs and 70° lows 

……….1981….90°…..70°…….2020…….90°……70°

EWR…26/35….29/43

LGA….14/32….26/67

NYC….19/29…16/47

JFK…..11/29….11/40

ISP……..6/15……9/30

BDR……6/11……11/35

POU….12/3…..…19/9

BDL……14/6…….24/13

TTN…….18/17…..26/31

 

 

That is wild, maybe we need to use EWR or :LGA more now.  LGA had nearly 50 90 degree days in 2010, I always use that as the benchmark for summer heat.  Thanks so much for this list!  Can you please add Allentown and Mount Pocono too? I want to make a comparison between my two locations.

Wild that NYC is the only one that has gone down in 90 degree days, even JFK has stayed steady.  Wild how NYC and LGA have gone in completely different directions.  Wouldn't it be amazing if in the future JFK exceeds NYC's 90 degree days on average lol?

 

 

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Long time lurker during the winter months and I appreciate all the info from the folks on here. I have my daughter's bat mitzvah this Saturday and I'm wondering if anyone can give me their thoughts on outdoor festivities for Saturday after 1PM. The weather models look pretty iffy 3 days out. 

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1 hour ago, jllevin79 said:

Long time lurker during the winter months and I appreciate all the info from the folks on here. I have my daughter's bat mitzvah this Saturday and I'm wondering if anyone can give me their thoughts on outdoor festivities for Saturday after 1PM. The weather models look pretty iffy 3 days out. 

Tricky call.   There's an offshore storm and then a front to the west.   Will they interact or stay separate? Hopefully the coastal robs the moisture and we stay dry.

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The Euro has convection along the inverted trough with steep mid-level lapse rates on Saturday.


A5755568-FA9B-477E-B25B-62DA9532E7FA.thumb.png.23e59676453edf1df52790c4588f29d6.png

A096D2C5-7EF4-4C96-B8BA-2ED400D2820E.thumb.png.ab58ce92dbd88c9f32caa9c11fa34bdf.png

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The Euro has convection along the inverted trough with steep mid-level lapse rates on Saturday.


A5755568-FA9B-477E-B25B-62DA9532E7FA.thumb.png.23e59676453edf1df52790c4588f29d6.png

A096D2C5-7EF4-4C96-B8BA-2ED400D2820E.thumb.png.ab58ce92dbd88c9f32caa9c11fa34bdf.png

In the immortal words of Michael Scott, why don't you explain this to me like I'm five?

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6 minutes ago, jllevin79 said:

In the immortal words of Michael Scott, why don't you explain this to me like I'm five?

basicially you could see a pop up shower at anytime, but afternoon is favored as sun will destabilize the cold pool of air aloft.   Usually dies down after sunset.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

That is wild, maybe we need to use EWR or :LGA more now.  LGA had nearly 50 90 degree days in 2010, I always use that as the benchmark for summer heat.  Thanks so much for this list!  Can you please add Allentown and Mount Pocono too? I want to make a comparison between my two locations.

Wild that NYC is the only one that has gone down in 90 degree days, even JFK has stayed steady.  Wild how NYC and LGA have gone in completely different directions.  Wouldn't it be amazing if in the future JFK exceeds NYC's 90 degree days on average lol?

 

 

Same story in the Poconos. The summer minimums have been rising more quickly than the maximums. So this is a shared temperature pattern at rural, suburban, and urban stations. 
 

359B5A96-E76E-47CA-B3FC-A94F74D19D55.thumb.jpeg.562de7c86bfa19e7136b28f5e653b55f.jpeg
3B525DC5-8366-4FC1-9FC8-A26170F18731.thumb.jpeg.2833bd1322ef93262765eaccb96d2119.jpeg

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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After a mainly cloudy and sometimes rainy day, the sun will return tomorrow. Tomorrow into the middle of next week will likely feature somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

Out West, Phoenix recorded its first 100° day of the year today. Last year saw Phoenix register a record 145 days on which the temperature rose to 100° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +25.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.227 today.

On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.989 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.394 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

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7 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

After a mainly cloudy and sometimes rainy day, the sun will return tomorrow. Tomorrow into the middle of next week will likely feature somewhat cooler than normal to near normal temperatures with perhaps a day or two of much below normal readings. Such cool shots have often occurred with a cold ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly, as is currently the case.

Out West, Phoenix recorded its first 100° day of the year today. Last year saw Phoenix register a record 145 days on which the temperature rose to 100° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in comination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around April 28. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.45°C. Neutral-cool ENSO conditions are now developing. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely be in place by the end of spring.

The SOI was +25.91 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.227 today.

On May 4 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.989 (RMM). The May 3-adjusted amplitude was 3.394 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

 

Don, interesting that the average of the 3 analogs that had a warm last week of May were warmer at NYC than they were at PHL.  And the only one of the 4 that was cooler still hit 90 in May!  How is it possible for a week that has a 90 degree temp in May to end up below normal?  And do you think we might get our first 90 before May ends?

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The next 8 days are averaging 56degs.(48/64), or about -5.0.

No warm up till mid-month.       Rain events have become more iffy.

50*(70%RH) here at 6am, nicely  m. clear.      54* by 9am.      57* by Noon.        63* by 3pm.       66* at 4pm.        Reached 68* at 4:30pm.

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3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, interesting that the average of the 3 analogs that had a warm last week of May were warmer at NYC than they were at PHL.  And the only one of the 4 that was cooler still hit 90 in May!  How is it possible for a week that has a 90 degree temp in May to end up below normal?  And do you think we might get our first 90 before May ends?

It’s possible. Once the pattern changes, it can become very warm in a hurry. 

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Morning thoughts...

It will be partly cloudy and pleasant today.  Temperatures will likely reach the middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 67°

A sustained period of below normal to near normal temperatures is imminent. Tomorrow will be partly sunny but cool.

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60's on six on replay the next 8 - 12 days.  Temps generally in the 60s with cloudy/rainy days perhaps below 60 (Sat 5/8, Mon 5/10).   Rain chances with nothing too heavy.  2016 progression still being advertised on the longer range guidance where the last week of May looks to turn much warmer and perhaps hot.  Glad Don is also seeing this potential.  

May 18th may mark the start of the transition to a warmer period.

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I did a calculation of how much warmer the new 30 yr and 15yr climate normals  are in NYC than 1981-2010. 

Month….30yr….15yr

Dec.+1.6….+2.2

Jan..+1.1….+1.7

Feb…+0.6…+0.5

Mar..+0.3…+0.7

Apr…+0.7…+1.0

May…+0.8…+1.4

Jun….+0.5…+0.6

Jul….+1.0….+1.9

Aug….+0.9….+1.0

Sep….+1.2….+1.9

Oct….+1.0….+1.9

Nov…+0.3…+0.4

 

 

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9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This morning Al Roker tossed a stat up the Las Vegas minimum is up 7 degrees over the last 30 years or something like that.

The population of metro LV went from 708,000 in 1990 to 2,700,000 in 2020.  Those who say urban heat island contributed greatly to that # would have a decent argument I'd assume.

pop.jpg

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

The population of metro LV went from 708,000 in 1990 to 2,700,000 in 2020.  Those who say urban heat island contributed greatly to that # would have a decent argument I'd assume.

pop.jpg

Sort of but not really. The way they develop out there includes new green areas that were just beige before. These newly landscaped and grassy areas add to the RH and general cooling in the valley bringing the temps down (theoretically).

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GFS says it is all right to be confused.          May 18 at 94* on this run, is back to 66*(12Z), which is higher than the 61* of just four runs back:

1620280800-0lEEb3f1YAo.png

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2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sort of but not really. The way they develop out there includes new green areas that were just beige before. These newly landscaped and grassy areas add to the RH and general cooling in the valley bringing the temps down (theoretically).

2 million people is a lot though even with green areas. I didn't realize how much LV grew in population until I saw that chart and numbers.  I wonder how many area's grew by 2 million in 30 years.  

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16 minutes ago, FPizz said:

2 million people is a lot though even with green areas. I didn't realize how much LV grew in population until I saw that chart and numbers.  I wonder how many area's grew by 2 million in 30 years.  

Parts of TX and FL are likely up there.   Cheaper living, lots of land. less taxes and nice weather will do that!

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3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Parts of TX and FL are likely up there.   Cheaper living, lots of land. less taxes and nice weather will do that!

Yeah probably.  Crazy growth.  

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