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May 2021


bluewave
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The 18z GFS forecasts three consecutive days on which the high temperature will stay below 60° in Central Park in coming days. Its forecast:

May 29: 55°

May 30: 57°

May 31: 55°

Since 1869, there has been only one such 3-day stretch beginning May 29 or later: June 3-5, 1945. The high temperatures were: June 3: 53°; June 4: 52°; June 5: 55°.

The most recent late May case occurred during May 22-24, 2003 when the high temperatures were 56° on all three dates. 

All four prior cases that saw such stretches beginning May 21 or later had rainfall on at least two of the three days. 

In sum, the GFS is suggesting what would be a rare event. It is still too soon to be sure that it will verify given its rarity.

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4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Core weakened.  Just want some rain.  

Don’t expect much, maybe 0.20” at best, radar looked a bit more impressive than reality, although anything is better than nothing at this point.

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9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 18z GFS forecasts three consecutive days on which the high temperature will stay below 60° in Central Park in coming days. Its forecast:

May 29: 55°

May 30: 57°

May 31: 55°

Since 1869, there has been only one such 3-day stretch beginning May 29 or later: June 3-5, 1945. The high temperatures were: June 3: 53°; June 4: 52°; June 5: 55°.

The most recent late May case occurred during May 22-24, 2003 when the high temperatures were 56° on all three dates. 

All four prior cases that saw such stretches beginning May 21 or later had rainfall on at least two of the three days. 

In sum, the GFS is suggesting what would be a rare event. It is still too soon to be sure that it will verify given its rarity.

the first week of June 1945 is the coldest on record...starting June 14th 1945 there was a five day heat wave...June 1945 ended up with a high of 97 on the 30th...

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The early evening storm didn't drop a lot of rain here (only .10), but had some impressive 40 to 50mph wind gusts. We got another storm late tonight that didn't have the wind that the early evening storm had, but it had much heavier rain. A quick very heavy downpour that dropped a quarter inch. So we ended up with a little over a third of an inch of rain for the day. Finally a decent watering for gardens. Looking forward to the much bigger soaking late friday.

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The last 5 days of May are averaging 60degs.(53/67), or -7.0.

Month to date is  63.8[+1.3].        May should end at 63.2[-0.2].

I only reached 73 yesterday, and that was right after the few drops of rain and one rumble of thunder, near 7:05-15pm.       Newark was 94, Islip 72.   Yikes.      Those TS's exploded vertically just as they went by the City/NJ coast---giving that hail.

Holiday Weekend now a 'Cool Out/Wet Out'.

Today could be warmest day of the next 10, low 80's.

67*(90%RH) here at 6am, m. clear.       71* by 9am.        75* by Noon, some cumulus clouds.        Was on the beach this PM,  84* at 5pm----nice west wind did it.         Got as high as 86*.

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The Euro has a first for this weekend. Newark has never  had two days in May with a high in the 50s following a 96° or higher reading. So a continuation of our weather extremes pattern which has become prominent since 2010.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Highest Max Temperature 
Following Lowest Max
1 1996 99 61
2 1992 98 63
- 1987 98 96
- 1962 98 67
3 1965 97 69
4 2021 96 ?
- 2016 96 83
- 1969 96 85
- 1964 96 68


1D03BACF-87E8-4BCD-8EF0-E2A440D07825.thumb.png.4f346166da8dc8d20e86b0d3ac631498.png
C69E4AAC-5FAD-4D8B-B4B5-C75D225711ED.thumb.png.7ab46a9fcb4d2478c1470bb636dc99be.png

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0.30 in the bucket with the storms yesterday after a high of 91. w  Enjoy the sun and warmth today,  we;ll see if the warmer spots can grab 90, it may be close.  Big speed bump for summer weather coming on the first summer weekend Fri (5/28) - Sun 5/30) cool and wet pending on breaks of rain and some breaks in clouds as Don and BW have alluded to, many spots in stuck in the 50s.  Monday does look to transition to warmer once we clear out.  Warmer more humid times ahead, seeing ridging showing up along the coast Jun 2 - 6 (Classic Bermuda high position??) but bias humid vs heat.  We'll see if we can add 90s or get NYC/LGA crew the first of the season in that window id say one  is on the table.  It does look to get warmer again way out there in 6/8 timeframe. Overall warm and wetter, sounds familiar.  June has been the month where outside of 2010, 2012 featured limited heat the last decade or so.

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