May 2021

[Cfa]

85 here

[STORMANLI]

86°

[CIK_62]

On beach here in CI (1st. TIME)and my T read remotely from phone APP is stuck at 80* (3pm)for hours, since I left house.      Slight sea breeze.     81* by 4pm.

[forkyfork]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

ewr 89 so far

a bunch of 89.6 obs but we don't know which way they're being rounded 

[STORMANLI]

88°

[Brian5671]

topped out at 83 here.  Perfect day

[forkyfork]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

a bunch of 89.6 obs but we don't know which way they're being rounded 

90 at 4 pm

[donsutherland1]

As has been a frequent occurrence at Central Park in recent years, the temperature dropped somewhat during mid-afternoon before rising again. That is almost certainly the result of the interaction between the sun's angle and the thick vegetation around the Park's ASOS. Meanwhile, Newark reached 90° for the first time this year.

[LoboLeader1]

Reached 84 here earlier this afternoon, currently at 82.

[tim]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Very weak/practically nonexistent ocean influence today. The barrier beaches are still in the mid 70s to 80s. The last few summers have been humid enough that the sea breeze only makes the heat worse by driving the humidity up and only dropping temps a few degrees. Hopefully it’s a drier heat this year. 

..kicked in big time @ tiana beach in hampton bays..winds predominantly NE..pretty.hot for the middle of may..then bang..SE and busy.. temp dropped at least 10*..pretty good swell coming in too..

[bluewave]

This was the lowest relative humidity 90° day at Newark in May since 2016. Came in with a relative humidity of 19% at 4pm. Matches up with this being the driest spring at Newark since 2016.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   90  43  19 

5-26-16…..91/43/19%

5-25-16…..90/39/17%
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1935	4.54	0
2	2016	6.35	0
3	1941	6.50	0
4	1965	6.64	0
5	1995	6.81	0
6	2021	6.95	13
7	1985	6.99	0
8	1963	7.19	0
9	1959	7.61	0
10	1938	7.68	0
11	1981	8.13	0
12	2006	8.19	0
13	1962	8.25	0
14	1992	8.29	0
-	1971	8.29	0
15	1964	8.35	0

[psv88]

1 hour ago, STORMANLI said:

88°

Just bumped up to 89.4...what you got?

[jm1220]

Up to 85 here. 

[uncle W]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This was the lowest relative humidity 90° day at Newark in May since 2016. Came in with a relative humidity of 19% at 4pm. Matches up with this being the driest spring at Newark since 2016.

Newark Liberty MOSUNNY   90  43  19 

5-26-16…..91/43/19%

5-25-16…..90/39/17%
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Total Precipitation	Missing Count
1	1935	4.54	0
2	2016	6.35	0
3	1941	6.50	0
4	1965	6.64	0
5	1995	6.81	0
6	2021	6.95	13
7	1985	6.99	0
8	1963	7.19	0
9	1959	7.61	0
10	1938	7.68	0
11	1981	8.13	0
12	2006	8.19	0
13	1962	8.25	0
14	1992	8.29	0
-	1971	8.29	0
15	1964	8.35	0

1959-1965 has five of the 16 years posted...all came in within seven years...that was the height of the drought that lasted until Sept. 1966...

[psv88]

Topped out at 89.5...my little area of commack, same with StormanLI, often local hot spot

[MJO812]

87 here in Brooklyn 

[Rtd208]

High for the day was 89 here.

Current temp 86

[doncat]

89/58 temp split today.

[Cfa]

86/59 split here.

[IrishRob17]

85/50 split here

[psv88]

And we’re down to 72

[donsutherland1]

The temperature soared into the middle and upper 80s in most of the region today. Newark was the region's hot spot with a high temperature of 91°. At Chibougamau, QC, the temperature reached 83°. That broke the daily record high temperature of 80°, which was set in 2010. Tomorrow and Friday will be fair and cooler in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas with temperatures holding mainly in the 70s. Lower 80s are possible in central and southern New Jersey southward.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days where the temperature makes a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.662. That was lowest figure since March 31 when the PNA was -1.775. That was also the lowest figure in May since May 31, 2018 when the PNA was -1.767. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

During the 1991-2020 period, 30% of days in New York City and 41% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. During the 1991-2020 period, 15% of days in New York City and 23% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 41% of days in New York City and 50% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 80° or above. When the PNA was -1.000 or below during that period, 24% of days in New York City and 35% of days in Philadelphia had high temperatures of 85° or above.

As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013.

Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around May 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.75°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.38°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer.

The SOI was +6.22 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.840 today.

On May 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.750 (RMM). The May 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.654 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

[SACRUS]

5/19

EWR: 91
ACY: 89
PHL: 89
New Brnswck: 88
TEB: 87
TTN: 87
BLM: 87
NYC: 86
JFK: 86
LGA: 86
ISP: 85

[uncle W]

91/59 today...

[etudiant]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The temperature soared into the middle and upper 80s in most of the region today. Newark was the region's hot spot with a high temperature of 91°. At Chibougamau, QC, the temperature reached 83°. That broke the daily record high temperature of 80°, which was set in 2010. Tomorrow and Friday will be fair and cooler in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas with temperatures holding mainly in the 70s. Lower 80s are possible in central and southern New Jersey southward.

The dominant weather story into at least the closing week of May will be the synoptic impact of a strongly to occasionally severely negative PNA. That development will lead to a warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal second half of May. There will likely be additional days where the temperature makes a run at 90° in parts of the region.

Today, the preliminary value of the PNA was -1.662. That was lowest figure since March 31 when the PNA was -1.775. That was also the lowest figure in May since May 31, 2018 when the PNA was -1.767. The PNA is forecast to remain at or below -1.000 until around May 24. During the May 16-31, 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia.

 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.4° (1.2° above normal).

 

Don, has there been any previous swing of this magnitude in your experience?

We went from the odds for a sub normal May to a well above normal probability in much less than a week.

[STORMANLI]

3 hours ago, psv88 said:

Just bumped up to 89.4...what you got?

88.7°

[donsutherland1]

27 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Don, has there been any previous swing of this magnitude in your experience?

We went from the odds for a sub normal May to a well above normal probability in much less than a week.

Nothing that I can recall anytime recently. Unfortunately, model data isn’t archived—at least publicly—so one can’t look for such dramatic swings.

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, STORMANLI said:

88.7°

Nice, glad to see our numbers so close. Down to 62 now...one hell of a backdoor

[lee59]

After a mid to upper 80 afternoon, the temperature has really dropped here also the last few hours, down to 63 degrees.

[Pequest]

88/44 split here in rural Warren County.