Cfa Posted May 13, 2021 Share Posted May 13, 2021 70/46 split here. 70/45 yesterday. This is what I’ve been waiting for, a stretch of California weather before we’re plunged into the Deep South in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 FWIW Today's version of the T's for the next 15: The ENS. barely makes 80 on one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will - Rutgers Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 such premium weather lately 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(57/78), or about +5 0. Less than 0.50" rain over the next 10 days. Month to date is 57.9[-2.9]. Should be 61.7[0.0]Normal, by the 22nd. 55*(48%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 61* by 9am. 63* by Noon. 65* at 1am. 66* by 3pm. 67* at 4pm-----cool sea breeze the culprit. Reached 71* from 6pm to 7:30pm. 61* by Midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Overnight guidance trended a lot warmer. 80s looking much more likely next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 76° Newark: 78° Philadelphia: 75° Tomorrow will be fair and continued warm. The potential exists for the last week of May to see above to much above normal temperatures. During the 1981-2010 period, New York City averaged 0.9 days on which the temperature reached 90° or above during May. During the 1991-2020 period, that figure rose slightly to 1.0 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 77 here-gorgeous finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Absolute gorgeous spring day to be outdoors. Temp here as of 4PM current temp was 73. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Just to show that the GFS is not the only model shunning its daily Lithium intake, I present the GEM for your delight or fright: The ENS for this does not even reach 80 for all 15 days of its run. Back Door CF's could ruin any 80+++ anyway. The last two days I have been screwed here with the sea breeze, but on Wed. I beat the City. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 An absolutely gorgeous day out there. Current temp 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 14, 2021 Share Posted May 14, 2021 Temperatures will likely top out in the 70s in much of the region through the weekend. A minor push of slightly cooler air is possible early next week before a potentially more impressive warmup unfolds. As had been the case with April, the closing week of May could wind up warmer to much warmer than normal. In the four cases where the MJO reached Phase 1 at an amplitude of 2.000 or above in combination with a cool ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly during the May 1-10 period, as occurred this year, three wound up with warmer to much warmer than normal conditions. At New York City, the mean temperature during the closing 7 days of May was 72.7° during those three cases while it was 72.0° at Philadelphia. The 1991-2020 means were 67.9° and 69.7° respectively. Only May 25-31, 2013 (monthly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -1.38°C) was cooler than normal. However, 90° heat arrived on May 29 in Philadelphia and May 30 in New York City during 2013. The current PNA forecast provides a fresh hint of a noticeably warmer end to the month. The PNA is currently forecast by most ensemble members to fall to -1.000 or below during the second half of May. During the 1991-2020 period, the mean temperature was 65.2° in New York City and 67.0° in Philadelphia. When the PNA was -1.000 or below, the average temperature was 67.7° in New York City and 69.3° in Philadelphia. Neutral ENSO conditions have now developed. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.4°C for the week centered around May 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-summer. The SOI was +17.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.526 today. On May 12 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.886 (RMM). The May 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.011 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 62.5° (0.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: Just to show that the GFS is not the only model shunning its daily Lithium intake, I present the GEM for your delight or fright: The ENS for this does not even reach 80 for all 15 days of its run. Back Door CF's could ruin any 80+++ anyway. The last two days I have been screwed here with the sea breeze, but on Wed. I beat the City. As long as we have the deep trough NE of us over the Maritimes, I'd be suspicious of any real heat making it to NYC, or if it does it would be short lived since the backdoor will always be close by. That trough's been absurdly constant over that area this spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 On 5/12/2021 at 4:27 PM, nycwinter said: no... go big or go home, a hall of fame summer followed by a hall of fame winter is the best possible combo! I hope it hits 111 this summer! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 On 5/12/2021 at 7:44 PM, doncat said: The above Harrison station averages close to 12 more 90° days each season than my SI station based on those seven years listed.... 2019 had 21 more. I didn't even know there was an airport in Harrison lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 On 5/13/2021 at 7:00 AM, bluewave said: You can see how the more onshore flow since 2018 has allowed Harrison to pull ahead of Newark. During the previous years with less sea breeze activity, both stations were nearly equal in 90° days and summer maximum temperature. This reflects the record ridging near and east of New England last 3 summers producing more S to SSE flow. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 + Max Harrison 2020 31 96 39 98 2019 27 99 39 101 2018 36 98 47 101 2017 22 99 23 98 2016 40 99 40 100 2015 35 98 32 99 2014 15 98 16 95 2013 25 101 25 102 2012 33 104 35 103 2011 31 108 31 107 2010 54 103* 50 106 * 2010 thermometer malfunction at Newark during hottest day of year leaving high 3° too cool Newark reached 106 in 2010? I thought they reached 108 in 2011? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 15, 2021 Author Share Posted May 15, 2021 8 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Newark reached 106 in 2010? I thought they reached 108 in 2011? That was the famous sensor calibration error when the temperature at Newark stopped recording. While the temperature was missing at Newark, Harrison reached 106°. But they went with the last reading at 12:38 at Newark of 103° before the outage. Central Park made it to 103° just after 3pm with all the foliage blocking the sensor. So the actual high at Newark was probably around 106°. Data for July 6 - HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2010-07-06 106 80 0.00 0.0 0 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 509 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010 ...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JULY 6TH BROKEN OR TIED AT ALL SIX WFO NEW YORK NY CLIMATE SITES. .....TEMPERATURE.....TIME (LDT).....PREVIOUS RECORD CENTRAL PARK NY........103............311 PM...........101 1999... LA GUARDIA NY..........103............342 PM...........101 1999... JFK ARPT NY............101...........1240 PM............99 1999... ISLIP NY...............101............255 PM............99 1999... BRIDGEPORT CT...........98...........1252 PM............98 1999... NEWARK NJ..............103*..........1234 PM...........102 1999... *NOTE: SENSOR CALIBRATION ERROR OCCURRED AT NEWARK NJ. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE OF 103 WAS MEASURED BY FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 It's Coming. No Rain + Heat Stroke. All models have a 90+ and all have just 0.10" on the next 10 days, not enough for 1 day even. The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(61/82), or +9.0. These 'next 8 days' average went from 57 a week ago, to today's 72. Month to date is 58.4[-2.6]. Should be 63.4[+1.6] by the 23rd. BDCF only salvation. 57*(48%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 61* by 9am. 62* by Noon----There is that sea breeze again...........76* in the City now----I am being cheated. 63* at 1pm.........78* in the City now. 65* by 3pm. 67* by 4pm. 70* at 4:30pm. 71* at 5pm. 65* by 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 The CMC did a good job showing this potential heat for a few days now, with the other models now coming round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Temperatures will likely reach the middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 77° Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and still warm. As the PNA plunges to abnormally low levels for May, an impressive warmup could develop next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Temp on the rise pretty quickly this morning. Current temp 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Already up to 74 here, 5 degrees ahead of yesterday which topped out at 76. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 5 hours ago, CIK62 said: It's Coming. No Rain + Heat Stroke. All models have a 90+ and all have just 0.10" on the next 10 days, not enough for 1 day even. The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(61/82), or +9.0. These 'next 8 days' average went from 57 a week ago, to today's 72. Month to date is 58.4[-2.6]. Should be 63.4[+1.6] by the 23rd. BDCF only salvation. 57*(48%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 61* by 9am. Overnight, one saw about as big a swing in the guidance as one ever sees. The guidance has finally come into line with the strong PNA- that is now developing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 felt warm this morning cant wait for fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Another gorgeous day out there. Current temp 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 79° now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 These appeared in the last hour. Probably will slide by City, just to the west. I am getting the screw on the T 63* versus 78* in City at 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Temp went from 76 to 70 when winds shifted from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 These early in the season heat events always seem to sneak up on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 80 today and now down to 75 with some clouds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted May 15, 2021 Share Posted May 15, 2021 Few rain drops actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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