wdrag

April 2021

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2 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

 

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Yeah, mine, which have been pretty good for a decade+ now, have been worse this year than usual.  

My spring allergies have been terrible since the early 2000s as soon as buds appear and by leaf out I’m on prescribed meds. The last few years it’s seems to been waning a bit I’m on meds for much shorter of a time. This year so far I’ve got nothing.

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I won’t complain if April only has two bad weeks of weather. The first week was awesome and hopefully the last week will be nice. Need some bad weeks in April for the gardens.

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Midday GFS beginning to really show a far more plausible scenario when it comes to snow distribution for a storm this late:

158B8B3A-0C77-4B00-B756-52BD637F7B49.png

Elevation dependent snow is definitely the most likely scenario, but having a cutoff and a highly anomalous cold pool aloft is the main way to get surprises in unexpected places at this time of year.

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10 minutes ago, sferic said:

This 12z Euro has my undivided attention

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash  @snywx  intrigued ?

like wow.JPG

Remember the catch-22s that make snow totals being that high highly unlikely, snow is definitely growing probable for your elevation. EC is otherwise all on its own when it comes to this. 

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40 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow euro 

Someone might get smacked. That's an impressive closed low. 

Not sure how those places are doing leaf out wise, any possibility of damaging wet snows? 

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20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Someone might get smacked. That's an impressive closed low. 

Not sure how those places are doing leaf out wise, any possibility of damaging wet snows? 

Most trees still are only beginning to bud out around here. 

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23 hours ago, wdrag said:

0.63 so far in this part of Wantage NJ. 

 

Made the correction to my intended 330PM message (suburban). now checking further...fwiw.. all very minor, but WPC has spotty 10% chance of 3+" of snow in the Catskills by 12z Friday. 

Total of 0.20 in the bucket since noon Friday thru noon today.

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I will get a thread started by 715pm.  Need to check some guidance.  Big amounts possible northwest quad of the closer low in the deformation zone. Banding of a moist unstable lapse rate.  Am on the road and won’t have checked anything close til 7p.  Want to see the N latch on and then use the positive snow depth change as base amount.  If it indeed is 6+ 33F wet snow power outages would occur. Anyway, something to look at

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11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

I will get a thread started by 715pm.  Need to check some guidance.  Big amounts possible northwest quad of the closer low in the deformation zone. Banding of a moist unstable lapse rate.  Am on the road and won’t have checked anything close til 7p.  Want to see the N latch on and then use the positive snow depth change as base amount.  If it indeed is 6+ 33F wet snow power outages would occur. Anyway, something to look at

Can't wait to read your take and analysis of this

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Cooler and wetter pattern on the new EPS weeklies. Week 1 is -AO +PNA -EPO. Week 2 is -EPO +PNA. 

APR 12-19

E2DDE48B-88AF-42B8-97E3-018126E70332.jpeg.fed1a7b183dd3a0b90dd7f1397204045.jpeg

APR 19-26

616B2AC2-B1E7-4CD4-8EF1-266D1400B5F4.jpeg.60a7f3d29c88728e73d8b80cd54ba0ab.jpeg

 

Just fabulous☹️

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1 hour ago, thunderbolt said:

Just fabulous☹️

Not every day will be awful. Tue & Wednesday of this week look pretty nice.

If those weeklies are correct then it'll be tough to hit 80F+ and top the March maximum. It'll likely depend on the last few days of April. 

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At 7 pm CDT, it was 32° with light snow in Bismarck. An unseasonably cold air mass will continue to push into the Northern Plains tonight and tomorrow. The coldest air will likely stay away from the region, but a small piece of this cold air could eventually move across parts of the region on Friday.

At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region on Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England.

The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -9.23 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.596 today.

On April 10 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.025(RMM). The April 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.889 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

 

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10 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

it is the worst allergy season I have ever had.....and it started extremely early. Pollen counts in NJ are HIGH. I'm on THREE different, no FOUR allergy medicines. 

Yeah its pretty bad this year. Alot of sunny, mild, windy days. Up until now, havent had alot of those extended cool gloomy back door purgatory pattens, which suck but help with tree pollen at least. 

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I guess my allergies are a result of something else then, I always find the rain and high humidity makes my allergies intolerable, so dry and rainless is perfect for me.

Maybe mold spores for you

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The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(46/60), or about -1.0.

Month to date is  52.6[+2.7].       Should be about  52.8[+1.5] by the 21st.

06Z GFS has 5 day heatwave now 4/24-28 with average high at 78.      The attendent GEFS says we will have trouble reaching 60 during this same time frame.      Keep up the good work boys.

2" of rain on all models for the next 10 days.

46*(84%RH) here at 6a, scattered overcast.       50* by 9am.     53* by 10am.        57* by 2pm, mostly sunny.        63* by 4pm.        Reached 66* at 6pm.       60* by 8pm.      55* by 10m.        53* at 11pm.

 

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Morning thoughts...

It will be partly cloudy and milder today. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 65°

Philadelphia: 66°

Clouds will increase tomorrow.

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While the La Niña didn’t have the expected influence on our winter pattern, the tropics are looking more Niño-like. The very strong MJO has resulted in a significant WWB. Today we saw the biggest SOI drop of the year so far. So does this just get us back to ENSO neutral or is another El Niño beginning? It will probably come down to whether a follow up WWB emerges in May. ENSO neutral vs El Niño could have an influence on summer hurricanes and temperatures. The ENSO forecast models are currently in the spring forecast barrier period.

Daily SOI 2021 103 1009.79 1010.95  -25.60

Very strong WWB pattern

44C32E7A-CFDA-4A35-A349-6E5CB7DD0724.thumb.png.82f7ab8088fb0e7e48b2d0589523b6df.png

 

 

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The warm spots could sneak in a 70° tomorrow. Then we cool down for several days. Looks like we could make another run on 70° in about a week. Shows how challenging it is to sustain below normal temperatures for more a than a few days at a time.

 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/13/2021  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      WED 14| THU 15| FRI 16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20|WED CLIMO
 N/X  49  68| 52  55| 42  57| 42  59| 45  64| 47  67| 46  68| 48 43 62
 TMP  55  60| 53  48| 43  51| 45  54| 50  57| 51  59| 51  61| 51      
 DPT  41  46| 46  41| 34  29| 33  31| 36  37| 37  31| 37  40| 38      
 CLD  PC  OV| OV  OV| OV  OV| PC  OV| PC  OV| PC  PC| PC  OV| OV  

 

738901CC-49A3-48D3-A2FA-BA6216E40AF2.thumb.png.886c2f7dc64c2fff36f3d6daf3df9aae.png

 

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Sunshine returned and the temperature rebounded into the 60s today. Tomorrow could be even warmer with highs in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s.

A small piece of the cold air that has moved into the Northern Plains will move across the region late this week. At the same time, a storm will likely impact the region during late Thursday into Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across northeastern Pennsylvania, central New York State, and central New England. The greatest accumulations should be confined to higher elevations in central New York State and central New England.

The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -25.60 today. That is the lowest SOI figure since June 20, 2020 when the SOI was -33.95. Over the last 50 days, the SOI has been negative on 58% of days. During the prior 50-day period, the SOI was negative on just 2% of days.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.445 today.

On April 11 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.030(RMM). The April 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.890 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 61% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(47/61), or -1.0. 

Month to date is  52.7[+2.7].          Should be about 53.2[+1.3] by the 22nd.

Looks dry after Sat. AM.       1.0"-1.5" rain to go.      GFS again with a T of snow sometime---the 22nd this run.

48*(82%RH) here at 6am/7am(hazy blue)      52* by 9am.         59* by Noon. (thin overcast)     61* at 1pm.       Reached 62* at 1:30pm but then sea breeze took over.       Back to 57* by 3pm.          Back up to 61* during 4pm-6pm.          58* by 10pm.

 

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