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April 2021

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Morning thoughts...

A slowly departing storm was bringing snow and rain to parts of New England. Today will start with partly sunny skies, but clouds could increase during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 56°

Temperatures will gradually increase during the weekend.

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5 hours ago, doncat said:

For you hot weather lovers... Today in 2002 marked the first day of an amazing 4 day mid April heat wave..High temps at my station reached 91, 96, 91 and 91 degrees from the 16th thru the 19th.

and with clear blue skies (no haze) amazing!

whats with all these -nao/-ao in mid to late April and May, why is this happening so much more now?

 

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7 hours ago, doncat said:

For you hot weather lovers... Today in 2002 marked the first day of an amazing 4 day mid April heat wave..High temps at my station reached 91, 96, 91 and 91 degrees from the 16th thru the 19th.

I remember that well. I was a freshman in college and there was no AC in the dorms...I ended up sleeping on the beach volleyball court 1 night because it was cooler out there than inside

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Think Boston gets snow out of this?

Also, I think it's extremely unlikely that it will be down in the 30s next Thursday since it didn't even get there this week.

 

It got down to 37 here last night.  Tons of 30s around the area last night outside the typically warmer spots or areas that stayed cloudy.  

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

a large scale pattern change that has caused this Chris?

This is probably another reason why we've had fewer 90 degree highs than what we had in the 90s.

 

The 90° degree day stats seem more like a wind direction issue since the airports are all on the water. Much more humid heat since 2015. The big onshore flow component has resulted in fewer 90° days at EWR and JFK. But since LGA is on the North Shore of Queens, the S to SE flow hasn’t impacted their recent 90° day counts. So they have had some of their highest 90° totals on record since 2015. Same story for Harrison, NJ which is more inland from Newark airport and doesn’t get the bay breeze.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 48 0
2 2018 38 0
3 2002 35 0
4 2020 34 0
- 1991 34 0
5 2016 32 0
6 1983 31 0
7 2005 30 0
- 1953 30 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 50 30
2 2018 47 0
- 2002 47 8
3 2005 41 9
4 2016 40 0
5 2020 39 0
- 2019 39 0
6 2012 35 21
7 2015 32 0
8 2011 31 30
9 2006 30 4


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
- 1949 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
- 1959 16 3
- 1955 16 2
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
- 1952 14 0
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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

a large scale pattern change that has caused this Chris?

This is probably another reason why we've had fewer 90 degree highs than what we had in the 90s.

 

NYC 90 degree days by decades...the 1940's had the most...since 1930 the lowest decade was the 2000's...

1870's...101

1880's.....81

1890's...138

1900's...101

1910's...115

1920's...128

1930's...189

1940's...202

1950's...175

1960's...181

1970's...183

1980's...195

1990's...197

2000's...123

2010's...192

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5 minutes ago, uncle W said:

NYC 90 degree days by decades...the 1940's had the most...since 1930 the lowest decade was the 2000's...

1870's...101

1880's.....81

1890's...138

1900's...101

1910's...115

1920's...128

1930's...189

1940's...202

1950's...175

1960's...181

1970's...183

1980's...195

1990's...197

2000's...123

2010's...192

in my lifetime the 80s and 90s were amazing, the 2010s were front loaded to 2010-13 its been bad springs and summers since then

 

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58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 90° degree day stats seem more like a wind direction issue since the airports are all on the water. Much more humid heat since 2015. The big onshore flow component has resulted in fewer 90° days at EWR and JFK. But since LGA is on the North Shore of Queens, the S to SE flow hasn’t impacted their recent 90° day counts. So they have had some of their highest 90° totals on record since 2015. Same story for Harrison, NJ which is more inland from Newark airport and doesn’t get the bay breeze.

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 48 0
2 2018 38 0
3 2002 35 0
4 2020 34 0
- 1991 34 0
5 2016 32 0
6 1983 31 0
7 2005 30 0
- 1953 30 0


 

Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 50 30
2 2018 47 0
- 2002 47 8
3 2005 41 9
4 2016 40 0
5 2020 39 0
- 2019 39 0
6 2012 35 21
7 2015 32 0
8 2011 31 30
9 2006 30 4


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 54 0
2 1993 49 0
3 1988 43 0
4 2002 41 0
- 1991 41 0
5 2016 40 0
- 1983 40 0
- 1959 40 0
6 1994 39 0
- 1944 39 0
7 2005 37 0
- 1987 37 0
8 2018 36 0
- 1949 36 0
9 2015 35 0


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
Missing Count
1 2010 32 0
2 1983 26 0
3 2002 21 0
4 1971 18 0
- 1949 18 0
5 2005 17 0
- 1991 17 0
6 2012 16 0
- 1959 16 3
- 1955 16 2
7 2016 15 0
- 1995 15 0
- 1961 15 0
8 1999 14 0
- 1988 14 0
- 1966 14 0
- 1952 14 0

is the breeze over the water an issue because of the SE ridge not being as strong?  If it were stronger and built back farther to the west we'd have a land breeze and a ring of fire blocking off precip to our west and north

 

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No heat at all on the gfs
Nothing crazy cold either. I'll gladly take 60s

Sent from my SM-N986U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

is the breeze over the water an issue because of the SE ridge not being as strong?  If it were stronger and built back farther to the west we'd have a land breeze and a ring of fire blocking off precip to our west and north

 

It may be related to the slowing AMOC and warmer waters east of New England. More ridging east of New England since 2015 has resulted in frequent summer SSE to SSW flow. There was a stronger ridge over the Plains from 2010 to 2013 with a dominant SW to W flow. 

ED5F5EB7-3B50-48E8-9BA7-2E1DF1A12A64.png.5695d45cc1d218ed64ac81e34579c614.png

6546C518-8C4A-4B66-97FE-0C2D45B479C4.png.4d58b1a8b322eedd246ab4b20a5da9e8.png

 

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It may be related to the slowing AMOC and warmer waters east of New England. More ridging east of New England since 2015 has resulted in frequent summer SSE to SSW flow. There was a stronger ridge over the Plains from 2010 to 2013 with a dominant SW to W flow. 

ED5F5EB7-3B50-48E8-9BA7-2E1DF1A12A64.png.5695d45cc1d218ed64ac81e34579c614.png

6546C518-8C4A-4B66-97FE-0C2D45B479C4.png.4d58b1a8b322eedd246ab4b20a5da9e8.png

 

Yep. The Bermuda high trended north the last few summers making the overall wind direction southerly instead of westerly. 

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep. The Bermuda high trended north the last few summers making the overall wind direction southerly instead of westerly. 

thats why it's more humid and why we've been having more tropical hits and close calls.

did this happen in the 50s too?

 

the 50s seem to be a good match for our winters too (most snow in March), before this winter that is.  Maybe we're going to have another large scale pattern change now?

 

 

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Newark NJ decade 90 degree days...

1940's...246

1950's...251

1960's...215

1970's...202

1980's...262

1990's...293

2000's...234

2010's...318

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Parts of New Hampshire picked up 13.0" snow. Snow will wind down across New England tonight.

A slow warming trend will commence during the weekend.

The recent model runs have now turned colder for the remaining week of April. That development will bear watching.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +4.11 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.537 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.725 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.861 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 65% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 53.8° (0.8° above normal).

 

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(44/62), or -3.0.

Month to date is  52.8[+2.1].        Should be about   52.9[+0.4] by the 25th.

Quick T transition near 21/22.      Another drop near the 26th.       Best chance for 80 still near the 29th., another quick change point.       Long Range GEFS looks coolish for the first 3 weeks of May!

44*(78%RH) here at 6am, scattered clouds.       47* by 9am.         51* by Noon.     54* at 2pm.       55* by 4pm.

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so far the max April Temp is 73 ...Last April almost set the record for the lowest monthly max with 68 as its highest temp...1940 has the record at 67 for the monthly max...

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Very chilly airmass with 850 temps -5c to -10c on guidance April 21 - 23.   Kind of a roller coaster bias cool the next week to 10 days.  Window for any brief but stronger warmth may come on the 28-29 or 30th?  Interestingly cooler without the big precip totals, cant imagine that lasts to much longer...

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly sunny and a bit milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 55°

Newark: 56°

Philadelphia: 56°

Tomorrow will be sunny and milder. The first half of next week will be noticeably warmer with readings well into the 60s with perhaps a day where they reach or exceed 70°.

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Severe weather with the intensifying tilting negative cold front Wednesday? 

Looks possible depending on timing. Afterwards we could see some rare 30s post 4/20 even into NYC.

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Severe weather with the intensifying tilting negative cold front Wednesday? 

Looks possible depending on timing. Afterwards we could see some rare 30s post 4/20 even into NYC.

We reached 32 in early May last year with snow flurries.

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45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We reached 32 in early May last year with snow flurries.

Yes, May 9th we had daytime snow showers.  My pool was getting opened that day.  Then by May 15th my kids were swimming (with help from the pool heater, but it was a warm day.)

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last April and the first half of  May was one of the coolest six weeks without a warm day I can remember...this year March delivered a warm day but it looks like we have to wait till May for the next one...

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5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Have to wait until May for any 80+ heat it seems with this pattern.

425A588C-8880-48A4-89E6-FD29AA50BF13.thumb.png.f77994dc42d63f79cef6fa2898b7f66c.png04800FA0-EFE5-4E42-BBFB-D9F504C4F662.thumb.png.157a8ce559e2cdfb5bf69b36629dd5d2.png

I’m fine with upper 60s and occasional 70, keep the heat waiting. Only thing I despise is the easterly wind marine layer crap, so far this spring hasn’t been too bad on that front. Of course watch that start happening. 

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Model forecasts indicating a very impressive cold frontal passage on Wednesday. Temperatures quickly rise into the low 70s ahead of the front. The forecast soundings indicate near record surface to 500 mb lapse rates. So severe convection looks possible. This is followed by a quick temperature drop to near freezing just N and W of NYC Thursday morning. Lapse rates remain steep to above 700mb so 50+ mph gusts will be possible behind the cold front. 

FCDAC53D-E5FE-4C6C-87CC-BDCD67C981C7.thumb.png.698375cfcb8c866dad327bc93832c2d3.png

BE8BC06D-CA73-4B36-AF84-AC2C24E47E0C.thumb.gif.b7a43a86ab4d4982758bf5da68ee6104.gif

E782F92C-AD63-45D8-91EE-D60714151A55.thumb.gif.b0efddb9f99b37eb1e2844db5b97f1c4.gif


 

 

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