wdrag

April 2021

Recommended Posts

Morning thoughts...

Clouds will increase today, but it will be warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 67°

A cool rain will develop tomorrow. Across parts of central and upstate New York and central and northern New England, especially the higher elevations, rain will turn to accumulating snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

Clouds will increase today, but it will be warm. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 69°

Newark: 69°

Philadelphia: 67°

A cool rain will develop tomorrow. Across parts of central and upstate New York and central and northern New England, especially the higher elevations, rain will turn to accumulating snow.

Bright and sunny here- looks like we wont get the clouds until after 1 PM?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Bright and sunny here- looks like we wont get the clouds until after 1 PM?

 

The morning should be mainly sunny. Clouds will increase during the afternoon.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While we are still in a blocky pattern, the warm spots will make a run on 70° today. Looks like several cooler days coming up before the next 70° chance early next week. So some warmer days in the mix even with the -AO +PNA -EPO pattern. Beyond the next 10 days, we would need to see more of a SE Ridge for an 80° chance near the end of April. Still outside the effective range of the guidance. 


Euro highs today

153E9C0A-0D57-4849-A836-B8CC66C40317.thumb.png.026dfd9800097979871bb3d2bff121af.png

Next run on 70° possible early next week

 

7E45B379-8B5B-4A5F-946E-EC34F0F14005.thumb.png.a77d8b2b63c801ef4ba45022a77c7b5d.png
 

Blocking pattern in the means next 10 days 

8EB765D8-C5F4-48BF-A1FE-ED40F483745F.thumb.png.5f1a5936328d99edfba639d9819615bf.png
 

8DE78A9F-A47C-49B7-94BF-DF3CB0FE3AB7.thumb.png.242b1d95adb82ba7ccd2513a376f1beb.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some drizzle has began here.  Looks like some drizzle/light rain moving in over the next few hours if it holds.  Topped out at 70 earlier with the sun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

12Z GEFS claims today was the warmest day we will see for the next 15 days.         Mean T goes up 5 degrees during this period so this would be sticker shock.         There is a chance for an outburst about the 27th or so.        Courtesy of WB.

1618401600-D2RRLXON3bk.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Much of the region basked in springlike readings in the upper 60s and lower 70s. However, the next several days will be much colder.

A developing storm will likely impact the region tomorrow into Friday. While a cool rain is likely from Philadelphia to New York City, there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow that will run across central and upstate New York State and central and northern New England. The greatest accumulations should be confined to higher elevations. Temperatures will likely stay in the lower 50s in New York City and Newark tomorrow.

The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -19.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.336 today.

On April 13 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.863(RMM). The April 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.951 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 60% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 54degs., (46/62) or about Normal.

Month to date is  53.3[+3.0].         Should be about 53.6[+1.8] by the 22nd.

City was 72* yesterday, only 62* here.    64* at JFK.

Less than 1" rain by Sat. AM.

55*(92%RH) here at 6am, overcast.      54* at 7am.       53* at 8am.        52* by 10am, drizzle.        51* at Noon.        52* at 2pm.     50* by 6pm.     High during day was 54*----but it was 57* at 1am.       47* by 11pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Morning thoughts...

A developing storm will bring rain to the northern Middle Atlantic region to New England. In parts of upstate New York, central and northern New England, colder air working into the deepening storm’s circulation will result in a changeover to snow. A 6”-12” snowfall with some higher amounts is possible in the Berkshire, Green, and White Mountains. However, even Worcester will likely pick up 2”-4” of wet snow with locally higher amounts of around 6” in the vicinity of Worcester. There is a small chance that the precipitation could even change to a period of snow for a time in the Boston area producing a small slushy accumulation.

High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 57°

Newark: 58°

Philadelphia: 63°

Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. Temperatures will gradually increase during the weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Euro is insane for SNE

Boston doesn't need alot to beat Central Park for snowfall this year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is insane for SNE

Boston doesn't need alot to beat Central Park for snowfall this year.

Snow Map? Just for morbid curiosity since I know those of us in this subforum and its n/w suburbs miss out on this one 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Snow Map? Just for morbid curiosity since I know those of us in this subforum and its n/w suburbs miss out on this one 

I don't have one but I have the 6z Euro courtesy of Orh

 

96AAEBD0-B872-47E5-B7ED-E97126E492F9.thumb.png.33794f704b2d8351b1572e74e6664660.png

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, MJO812 said:

I don't have one but I have the 6z Euro courtesy of Orh

 

96AAEBD0-B872-47E5-B7ED-E97126E492F9.thumb.png.33794f704b2d8351b1572e74e6664660.png

Gonna be a special one for those guys. Rooting for them (until they inevitably lose power from the weight of the snow)

  • Weenie 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is insane for SNE

Boston doesn't need alot to beat Central Park for snowfall this year.

Would be fitting for it to happen on a late developer bomb on 4/16. These often shift east last minute which benefits them. I’m leaning towards it not happening for Boston but who knows. It can if the setup is right, we got heavy accumulating snow here on 4/10/96, 4/7/03 etc. Guess we’ll find out tomorrow.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This was the first time that Newark had 4 days reach 70° April 1-14 but not get above 72°.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Apr 1 to Apr 14
Maximum  Temperature
1 1945-04-14 8 84
2 2010-04-14 7 92
- 1981-04-14 7 80
3 1991-04-14 5 88
4 2021-04-14 4 72
- 2019-04-14 4 80
- 2017-04-14 4 84
- 2014-04-14 4 83
- 2011-04-14 4 87
- 2005-04-14 4 78
- 2002-04-14 4 77
- 1967-04-14 4 83
- 1955-04-14 4 84
- 1954-04-14 4 78
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks like more ridging building in last few days of April. The low to mid 80s March max will be tough to beat but not impossible.

Can't believe we're already seeing a late August sun angle.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, IrishRob17 said:

You're surprised by this...

No but it's always a little jarring given how different mid April is compared to late summer.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

rained nicely for a while but its stopped for now...temperatures in the low and mid 40's this time of year is normal...nothing close to the lows of mid April 2014 when it snowed and sleeted a half inch...back in 1950 NYC got 2" of snow after they hired a rain maker to end a drought...

1950...

http://bklyn.newspap...image/52910802/

http://bklyn.newspap.../image/52911107

1950...city hires rain maker...

http://www.nytimes.com/1999/07/06/nyregion/wallace-e-howell-84-dies-famed-rainmaker-in-drought.html

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A developing storm will bring periods of rain to parts of the region overnight, particularly eastern sections. Meanwhile, a snowstorm will rage in the Berkshire, Green and White Mountains. There, 6"-12" of wet snow with locally higher amounts is likely. Worcester will likely pick up 2"-4" of snow. There is an outside chance that Boston could pick up a small accumulation. The last time Boston saw measurable snowfall in April was just last year on April 18, 2020 when 0.7" snow was measured.

In the wake of the storm, tomorrow will be variably cloudy and blustery. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle 50s. However, a slow warming trend will likely commence during the weekend.

The latest EPS weeklies notwithstanding, the closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around April 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.52°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was -4.26 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.265 today.

On April 14 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 1.725 (RMM). The April 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.862 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.0° (1.0° above normal).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes, watch the 28th.      The Mean and the OP are playing with 10C on the 850mb T, and 200m on the 500mb heights.      At any rate looks like a short outburst.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For you hot weather lovers... Today in 2002 marked the first day of an amazing 4 day mid April heat wave..High temps at my station reached 91, 96, 91 and 91 degrees from the 16th thru the 19th.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The next 8 days are averaging 51degs.(43/59), or -5.0.

Month to date is  53.1[+2.7].       Should be 52.3[near Normal] by the 24th.

43*(81%RH), m. clear.       44*(66%RH).            48* at 1pm.       51* at 2pm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doesn’t take long for above normal temperatures to return again. Next chance of 70° on Tuesday. Then another cool down with lows in the 30s for next Thursday.  
 

KEWR   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   4/16/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 FRI  16| SAT 17| SUN 18| MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23 CLIMO
 X/N  55| 41  58| 42  61| 45  64| 47  68| 51  65| 37  59| 45  66 44 63

 

83303D78-6035-4BA7-A858-25E6FBCE0215.thumb.png.758169156376f5cf551ab43c25b2a210.png
841EE79E-CFB7-45D4-88A8-44403F4E0407.thumb.png.8efce589f621a8f0f058632764047af4.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.