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April 2021

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The big high temperature winners today were the areas away from the marine influence.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   62  51  67 S10   
Central Park   MOSUNNY   67  50  54 E8    
Poughkeepsie   MOSUNNY   72  55  55 S9   
SYRACUSE       PTSUNNY   79  44  28 VRB7   
BUFFALO        CLOUDY    81  40  23 VRB3  
 

 

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29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The big high temperature winners today were the areas away from the marine influence.

 

MacArthur/ISP  PTSUNNY   62  51  67 S10   
Central Park   MOSUNNY   67  50  54 E8    
Poughkeepsie   MOSUNNY   72  55  55 S9   
SYRACUSE       PTSUNNY   79  44  28 VRB7   
BUFFALO        CLOUDY    81  40  23 VRB3  

 

 

Wow 81. 
 

beautiful 69 here

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56 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Wow 81. 
 

beautiful 69 here

The elevated convection will be nice change on Sunday following the 3rd driest start to April on record.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Apr 1 to Apr 10
Missing Count
1 1881-04-10 0.00 0
2 1900-04-10 0.01 0
3 2021-04-10 0.04 1
4 1909-04-10 0.05 0
5 1963-04-10 0.06 0


691C837D-0413-495B-9F19-459D58888807.thumb.png.765e6f912b97b0834fb2cf77bf1a104a.png

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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The elevated convection will be nice change on Sunday following the 3rd driest start to April on record.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Precipitation Apr 1 to Apr 10
Missing Count
1 1881-04-10 0.00 0
2 1900-04-10 0.01 0
3 2021-04-10 0.04 1
4 1909-04-10 0.05 0
5 1963-04-10 0.06 0


691C837D-0413-495B-9F19-459D58888807.thumb.png.765e6f912b97b0834fb2cf77bf1a104a.png

Yea it’s been dry.

but my god today is glorious. No wind either. 

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It became partly sunny and quite warm this afternoon. The temperature topped out at 70° in New York City. Many more trees have exploded into full bloom in the New York Botanical Garden.

NYBG04102021-6.jpg

NYBG04102021-8.jpg

NYBG04102021-13.jpg

NYBG04102021-15.jpg

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Clouds broke for sunshine today and temperatures soared into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Tomorrow will be more unsettled.

A period of rain is likely tomorrow. There could also be some thunder. Tomorrow could be quite warm south of the warm front with temperatures rising well into the 70s in Philadelphia. North of the front, temperatures could remain locked in the 50s.

An unseasonably cold air mass will move into the Plains States next week and then into the Southeast toward or by the following weekend. The position of the block will keep the coldest air away from the region. As a result, temperatures will likely continue to top out mainly in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

The closing week of April could turn noticeably warmer. Since 1974, there were 7 cases where the MJO reached Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.500 or above during April 5-15, as was the case this year. Only 1981 had an April 20-30 maximum temperature below 80° (75°). The average highest figure for such cases was 81.3°. Therefore, it is more likely than not that April 2021 will have a maximum monthly temperature of 80° or above.

Up north, excessive warmth will continue in northeastern Canada where some record high temperatures will be possible through tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.25°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.80 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.038 today.

On April 9 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 2.076 (RMM). The April 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.983 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal April. April will likely finish with a mean temperature near 54.5° (1.5° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 53degs.(47/58), or about -1.0.

Month to date is  53.1[+3.6].      Should be about  52.8[+1.5] by the 19th.

GFS/CMC have about 2" over the next 10 days and the EURO is headed toward 5" during this period.

55*(93%RH) here at 6am, FOG <0.2m.          59* by 1pm.

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Morning thoughts...

It will be mostly cloudy with a period of rain this morning. Clouds will linger during the afternoon and a shower or thundershower is possible. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania could see temperatures top out in the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 61°

Newark: 61°

Philadelphia: 69°

Tomorrow will be much cooler with readings only in the lower and middle 50s.

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We trade in warmer and drier blocking for cooler and wetter. Better chances for rain starting today. The pattern usually ends up with closed lows this time of year with strong blocking. So one closed low moves through the next several days followed by another on Thursday.  The ensembles are hinting at the Eastern Trough lingering into late April. 


06D5FEBD-296D-4C3B-93DC-8F648D0BD973.thumb.png.ffa7b2845f769eb64f5668f22a9cbba2.png

CC7BA485-A27B-4086-988D-2250BBAA6D4C.thumb.png.50adc7021644536caafd92519fe4c3bc.png

30732F26-B489-46C9-80BF-27F03604F070.thumb.png.7af87b7484a70485caf49f856e8d39f2.png

 

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Second half of April?      eke        The rest of the week is in and out of clouds and showers, with snow Thurs. night for some nearby locations apparently.

gfs_asnow_neus_65.png

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These ensembles are making it depressing looking at next couple weeks.  Bunch of sh*t weather possibly coming.   Feels like November getting the last nice fall day and looking at a long miserable cold stretch to wait for spring

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they don't call them clown maps for nothing...we saw our first 80 degree day on March 26th...when will the next 80 degree day come?...

1921 was 80 + on 3/21 and 3/28...next 80 was 5/9...

1945 was 80+ on 3/20/28/29...next  80 was 4/13...

1977 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was 4/12...(90)...

1985 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was 4/19...(88)...

1989 was 80+ on 3/29...next 80 was  5/18...

1990 was 80+ on 3/13 and 3/16...next 80 was 4/23...

1998 was 80+ from 3/27-31...next 80 was 5/15...

2021 was 80+ on 3/26...next 80 ???

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52 minutes ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash

 

I'd give up a month's pay for this to verify

month.JPG

GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations 

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48 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations 

Matter of fact, midday GFS is already showing signs of slowly coming to a realistic scenario

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

GFS has lost its mind apparently. Definitely not going to verify at even 50% of this. A much more realistic scenario should become apparent with each successive run; which probably confines most of any snow to >1500 foot elevations 

I'm at 1,500 feet so hopefully I'll see some mood flakes

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really don't understand what NWS was thinking rolling out the new radar, it shows you as little information as possible as slowly as possible.

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1 hour ago, crossbowftw3 said:

way more realistic snow:elevation distribution for what you'd expect for a late seaon storm.

What am seeing is increasing EC op wintry look, tho EPS I thought was a little ahead of GEFS on snow acc. If it’s still on the models tomorrow with 4 inches suburban elevations, would thread. Nothing today from myself on this.   For auburn to suburban at 452, after returning to better vision at home.  aging... glad I got here.  don't rush it. 

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