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wdrag

April 2021

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It's quite possible for some kind of snow to happen here on April Fool's and the following day. Widespread event as the models today have them? Probably not 

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EC tucked in west fringe of our area,  GFS so far,  further east but inconsistent.  GGEM mostly won our area. EPS is heavier into the subforum but that could be because of the aberrant 12z/26 EC which has 2ft+ up in the Adirondacks.  We are going into a strong-NAO. Late season. Can it develop far enough south to be a factor in the NYC subforum?

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NYC's coldest snowiest first ten days of April since 1950...

1950 had more cold with two inches of snow after the 10th...other years with one cold day or one light snowfall I left out...1982 has the greatest April wintry period...

1950.............................................

dates...max min precip snow depth

01........48....32......0.......0.......0

02........57....46....0.01....0.......0

03........63....48......T.......0.......0

04........76....46....0.02....0.......0

05........63....44....0.06....0.......0

06........48....31....0.13....0.......0

07........50....27.......0......0.......0

08........55....32.......0......0.......0

09........46....27....0.05....T.......0

10........57....29.......0......0.......0

1954.............................................

01........47....31....0.03...0.3......T

02........55....36.......0......0.......0

03........49....24.......0......0.......0

04........43....23.......0......0.......0

05........43....33.......T......T.......0

06........64....43....0.01....0.......0

07........74....53.......T......0.......0

08........77....43....0.17....0.......0

09........56....35.......0......0.......0

10........53....39.......0......0.......0

1956....................................................

01........52....33.......0......0.......0

02........48....37.......0......0.......0

03........50....40.......T......0.......0

04........51....43....0.01....0.......0

05........66....46.......0......0.......0

06........65....46....0.13....0.......0

07........46....37....0.75....0.......0

08........37....33....0.72...4.2.....3

09........52....34.......0......0.......1

10........57....36.......0......0.......0

1957........................................................

01........59....39....0.02....0.......0

02........62....41....0.78....0.......0

03........50....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....33....0.85...2.5.....2

05........58....34....0.77....0.......0

06........58....44....0.25....0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........50....37....0.31....0.......0

09........45....34....0.15....T.......0

10........51....35.......0......0.......0

1972.....................................................

01........58....41.......0......0.......0

02........54....39....0.13....T.......0

03........48....36.......0......0.......0

04........42....38....0.31....0.......0

05........54....32.......0......0.......0

06........62....42.......0......0.......0

07........42....28....0.03....T.......T

08........43....26.......T......T.......0

09........51....29.......0......0.......0

10........54....37.......0......0.......0

1975.......................................................

01........67....40.......0......0.......0

02........54....37.......0......0.......0

03........55....33....1.02....0.......0

04........37....27.......0......0.......0

05........41....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....30.......0......0.......0

07........47....29.......0......0.......0

08........47....31.......T......T.......0

09........52....33.......0......0.......0

10........58....32.......0......0.......0

1982................................................

01........65....46.......0......0.......0

02........58....36.......0......0.......0

03........56....43....1.86....0.......0

04........52....32.......T......T.......0

05........48....27.......0......0.......0

06........41....21....1.11...9.6.....3

07........30....21.......0......0.......9

08........43....25.......0......0.......6

09........39....34.......T......T.......3

10........53....34.......0......0.......2

1995.......................................................

01........55....37.......0......0.......0

02........49....35.......0......0.......0

03........56....34.......0......0.......0

04........68....28....0.04....0.......0

05........39....23.......0......0.......0

06........49....28.......0......0.......0

07........61....43.......0......0.......0

08........44....39....0.14....T.......0

09........68....41....0.56....0.......0

10........56....34.......T......0.......0

2003........................................................

01........43....30....0.11....T.......0

02........57....39.......T......0.......0

03........54....40.......0......0.......0

04........44....35.......0......0.......0

05........43....35.......0......0.......0

06........47....33.......0......0.......0

07........38....30....0.56...4.0.....1

08........37....31.......0......0.......3

09........39....35....0.30....0.......1

10........52....36.......0......0.......0

2007................................................

01........50....42....0.06....0.......0

02........56....42....0.06....0.......0

03........63....42.......0......0.......0

04........42....40....0.85....0.......0

05........44....34.......T......T.......0

06........42....31.......T......T.......0

07........43....31.......0......0.......0

08........41....30.......0......0.......0

09........49....32.......0......0.......0

10........51....33.......0......0.......0

2012..................................................

01........41....37....0.13.....0.......0

02........42....33....0.16.....0,,,,,,,0

03........56....42....0.12.....0.......0

04........45....36........0......0.......0

05........44....28........0......0.......0

06........44....25........0......0.......0

07........62....37........0......0.......0

08........71....53........0......0.......0

09........64....37....0.02.....0.......0

10........43....29........0......0.......0

2016................................................

01........79....61....0.02.....0.......0

02........61....49....0.16.....0.......0

03........50....34....0.09.....T.......0

04........45....29....0.47.....T.......0

05........43....26........0......0.......0

06........48....30........0......0.......0

07........58....48....0.09.....0.......0

08........50....40....0.01.....0.......0

09........43....36....0.11.....T.......0

10........50....31........0......0.......0

.........................................................

2018....

01...….60....43...….0......0...….0

02...….43....33....0.59...5.5......3

03...….43....39....0.26.....0...….0

04...….56....40....0.04.....0...….0

05...….45....34...….0......0...….0

06...….62....37....0.11.....0...….0

07...….49....37...….0......0...….0

08...….46....32...….0......0...….0

09...….49....32...,...T......0...….0

10...….51....38....0.01....0...…..0

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This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week.


First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First  80°
Value
Next Freeze
Value
 
2021 03-26 (2021) 84 -   -
2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32  
2019 04-08 (2019) 80      
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29  
2017 04-10 (2017) 82      
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26  


 

901C2F14-2E00-4DD8-8C16-6B9C44E52389.thumb.png.1951a5d330481940e94ee0fd26ba063b.png

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11 hours ago, bluewave said:

This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week.


First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First  80°
Value
Next Freeze
Value
 
2021 03-26 (2021) 84 -   -
2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32  
2019 04-08 (2019) 80      
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29  
2017 04-10 (2017) 82      
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26  


 

901C2F14-2E00-4DD8-8C16-6B9C44E52389.thumb.png.1951a5d330481940e94ee0fd26ba063b.png

Whats the highest temp we've had prior to a measurable snow?  Would that be in 1990?

 

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18 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Thanks for all!

 

Added the LSR's for SVR- see axis Mid-Atlantic to w LI,  and the wind advisory LSR reports vicinity I90 northward (NYS-MA) and then the OKX graphic of max wind gusts today.  That should be the wrap on this short fused topic.  Not doing anything on snow for 4/1-2, unless there is a marked change eastward toward NYC (beyond the NAM). Probably good to continue snow conversation in the April topic. 

Screen_Shot_2021-03-29_at_4_38.54_PM.png

Screen Shot 2021-03-29 at 4.40.10 PM.png

only UKMet has much of anything and even that doesn't get snow close to NYC

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22 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

only UKMet has much of anything and even that doesn't get snow close to NYC

Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on 

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12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on 

Time for weenie posts like "this hurricane will hit NYC" or "this line of T-storms will hold together and crush us" 

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Just now, crossbowftw3 said:

Still possible but CNY is all but locked in for a more significant snow. If we get lucky we can see 2-5” here 

YUP, WBGM TV 12 CBS from Binghamton had ALL of Sullivan in 2-5. Do you get Channel 12 ?

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1 minute ago, sferic said:

If they low is more south and east would more sig snows follow suit ?

If the low was further SE that’s how we get into the 2-5” range for snows here

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12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'd really wanna be NW of liberty. Delhi even

Preferably even closer to Syracuse. They’ll get smacked up there. Pretty high ratios for them too at up to 14:1 (after the initial transition being closer to 4-5:1) so snow growth should be very favorable.

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10 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Not one model shows any accumulating snow in the NYC metro area. The last accumulating snowfall was on 2/22 and that was all she wrote, nothing at all since then. It’s over, been over, the fat lady has sung. Time to move on 

not that different from 2009-10

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10 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Time for weenie posts like "this hurricane will hit NYC" or "this line of T-storms will hold together and crush us" 

only problem is the former seem to be happening more and more frequently.

Based on the SST patterns, we could get hit by the tropics again this year.

Depends on how strong the SE Ridge is, if it's really strong than the SST wont matter because it still steer TC to our SW.

Looking at 11 yr patterns 1944, 1955, and 1999 all had east coast major hits.

Based on a really strong SE Ridge this summer, I'd look for late season hits September and maybe even later, rather than the early season ones we saw last summer.  The above 11 yr patterns were like that.

 

 

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

only problem is the former seem to be happening more and more frequently.

Based on the SST patterns, we could get hit by the tropics again this year.

Depends on how strong the SE Ridge is, if it's really strong than the SST wont matter because it still steer TC to our SW.

Looking at 11 yr patterns 1944, 1955, and 1999 all had east coast major hits.

Based on a really strong SE Ridge this summer, I'd look for late season hits September and maybe even later, rather than the early season ones we saw last summer.  The above 11 yr patterns were like that.

 

 

I've noticed past several summers, maybe even a decade, that forecasted summer squall lines do not hold up that well here, exception for the May 2019 line that spun a tornado a few miles away and knocked out my power for days.   Other than that, I get my worst thunderstorms in the "popcorn" scenario.

 

 

The previous years of cyclone tracks is worrisome.  Unless something major changes in Atlantic, kind of hard to bet against the same tracks as past couple years

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7 hours ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash @snywx   00z GFS wow if it verifies, big if

 

Comments?

wow.JPG

6z came back west

 

also I doubt you get 6” of snow when considering this is happening in the morning. Gotta account for sun angle killing ratios.

Even if you get moderate snow for 4 hours or so. You need some impressive rates for this time of year to make it stick 

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