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Severe Event March 25th 2021


Bob's Burgers
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
530 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
  
ALC007-252245-  
/O.CON.KBMX.TO.W.0062.000000T0000Z-210325T2245Z/  
BIBB AL-  
530 PM CDT THU MAR 25 2021  
   
..TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ASHBY AND BRIERFIELD  
  
...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR EAST  
CENTRAL BIBB COUNTY...  
      
AT 529 PM CDT, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO WAS LOCATED  
OVER ASHBY, OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTEVALLO, MOVING NORTHEAST AT  
40 MPH.  
  
TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR ASHBY AND BRIERFIELD. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY   
DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!  
  
HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.  

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I must admit I am a bit baffled.  We have had many tornadoes, some long tracked.  The current surface low is 1002 mb in southern IL, currently deepening but not as fast as expected.  I always thought a number of svr parameters were tied to the strength of the surface low, yet we have had extreme values with a low pressure not 990 or lower and many svr reports.

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2 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

That's a *big* tornado 

I know it's not recommended to talk about ratings on this site, but I would be absolutely stunned if that was less than an absolutely maxed out EF4, or worse.

I didn't have radarscope in 2011 for my phone, but I've been seeing colors/signatures I've never seen on that app before.

Feels like a historic tornado on the ground at the moment.

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Just now, Indystorm said:

I must admit I am a bit baffled.  We have had many tornadoes, some long tracked.  The current surface low is 1002 mb in southern IL, currently deepening but not as fast as expected.  I always thought a number of svr parameters were tied to the strength of the surface low, yet we have had extreme values with a low pressure not 990 or lower and many svr reports.

The environment that's been in place across Alabama has been high-end for much of the day despite models completely missing with their handling of surface evolution further west. Certainly worth discussing why it seems like models continue to miss on key details after this is over.

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Just now, CryHavoc said:

I know it's not recommended to talk about ratings on this site, but I would be absolutely stunned if that was less than an absolutely maxed out EF4, or worse.

I didn't have radarscope in 2011 for my phone, but I've been seeing colors/signatures I've never seen on that app before.

Feels like a historic tornado on the ground at the moment.

The tornado, at some point in its life cycle, was capable of producing EF5 damage. I have absolutely no doubt about that. However, did the tornado hit anything capable of being rated EF-5 while the tornado was at its most violent? Who knows. 

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7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

..2220Z UPDATE     A LONG-TRACK, STRONG TO POTENTIALLY VIOLENT TORNADO IS ONGOING   ACROSS CENTRAL AL AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST TOWARDS THE GA BORDER   GIVEN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HAVE EXPANDED THE CATEGORICAL RISKS   SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXTREMELY INTENSE SUPERCELL.  

Was curious how far this thing can persist.  Hard to imagine it could get to the south of Atlanta, but it’s an exceptional system.

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There's no specific requirement not to discuss ratings--I think it's reasonable to expect somewhere along path you'll see EF4+ reports...but remember that radars, unless they're DOWs are not measuring the wind AT THE GROUND. That's super critical and why you can't take "wow look at this gate to gate shear" stuff verbatim--that's what's happening a few k feet up. Friction is real, yo. El Reno was an EF5 according to DOW...it's rated EF3. Why? No structures were hit that verified EF5. Same for the Bassfield tornado. Had an EF5 signature at times and would be super easy to believe a monster that big, on the ground that long, produced EF5 winds in a sub vortex somewhere...but clearly didn't do so over a place for which EF5 criteria could be applied. This long track, fatality producing tornado...seems rather clearly destined for EF4+ status with a special wikipedia subsection dedicated to it within the discussion about the overall event. EF5 could have verified if the tornado had gone straight through Brent...looked particularly nasty around then. It may still verify...that's what damage surveys are for. In general though..remember that velocities do not tell you what's happening at the ground unless you're right next to the radar site like now, or using a DOW. It's useful to know what the G2G is, but really the better measure is how high up debris gets lofted. There's a somewhat direct correlation btwn debris height and strength of the tornado. 

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