CoastalWx

March 2021 Weather Discussion

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I mean we really can’t get any more detailed that far out. But next week is a tease.

Going with Scott's hint, friend just came down to my shop, saw the plow equipment and said you putting that crap away? lol, I said stays on all the equipment till at least April 1 or so, he said I bet you $10.00 you wont plow a storm for the rest of the season.........I took the bet, I said 2" or more I have to go out per contracts, he stated "50s most of next week' i said perhaps, but what about the rest of the month....? He said he will be back April 1st to get his $10.00 ( lol I'm a cheap Greek he ain't getting crap!)

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 1-2 is pretty obvious on that map. Look just west of BOS where the positive departures are. 

Also, the fact that they are still below climo snow despite those other storms like 2/7 and 2/19 means their “climo” is actually the opposite of hostile...it’s because it’s a 12 year mean on that map....2009-2020. Those were very kind years to SE MA. They prob averaged over 20” for February during that stretch. 

If that map was based on like 1981-2010, they prob wouldn’t have negative departures. 

Yep, the 128 belt back to ORH had 30”+ for the month of February. 

 

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39 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

My map has BOX right about 40” for average. Granted, I made the map like over a decade ago. You could probably add a couple inches to the long term average there given how ridiculous the 2010s were there. I’d probably drag that 40” contour a solid 10-15 miles southeast if I included the 2010s  

 

SNE_snowfall.thumb.PNG.47db214da799b5ae6b2d2116df573cf0.PNG

Lol....what’s with the weenie blip over Haddam?  

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53 minutes ago, 512high said:

Going with Scott's hint, friend just came down to my shop, saw the plow equipment and said you putting that crap away? lol, I said stays on all the equipment till at least April 1 or so, he said I bet you $10.00 you wont plow a storm for the rest of the season.........I took the bet, I said 2" or more I have to go out per contracts, he stated "50s most of next week' i said perhaps, but what about the rest of the month....? He said he will be back April 1st to get his $10.00 ( lol I'm a cheap Greek he ain't getting crap!)

Don't you guys settle bets with Windex?

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

I wonder if some NNE sites can make a run at record low snowfall for March? Looks like at least half of the month will go by with basically zilch.

Farmington co-op recorded only traces in March 1905 and again in 1946 - be hard to beat that, especially as they probably recorded some frozen on the 1st this year.  My lowest here, and since moving to Maine in Jan. 1973, is 0.6" in 2010, also my mildest March here.  I'd say 1 in 10 chance we get less than that.

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Last night Fisher had a graphic showing March snowfall in Boston by date. He only showed the last 10 years so I think it may have been skewed high but we have done well in the first 20 days of the month but it drops quickly once past that. He also mentioned that Boston had no accumulating snow last year and we have never recorded a back to back snowless March. Accumulating and plowable are to very different things however.

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Just now, tamarack said:

Farmington co-op recorded only traces in March 1905 and again in 1946 - be hard to beat that, especially as they probably recorded some frozen on the 1st this year.  My lowest here, and since moving to Maine in Jan. 1973, is 0.6" in 2010, also my mildest March here.  I'd say 1 in 10 chance we get less than that.

Records in Randolph for March only go back 11 years so I don’t know what happened here in some of those truly putrid years. 

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5 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

How deep is your pack now?

About 2 feet on the sheltered north side. I haven't walked down into the exposed southern field and checked recently. Still total coverage down there, guessing 15" or so there, but the sun is slowly melting it despite the temps and next week will bust it up pretty good, I think.

It hasn't snowed over 2 inches here in a 24 hr period since Feb 2. Gotta be some kind of record for this site.

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I can see it in the 12z operational GFS's 'attitude' - for lack of better word.

The arguments I've put forth regarding either La Nina ... HC  ( or somehow someway they work together ) is also muddled causality melded in with spring heights inching higher ( coherently in this run..)

Its difficult to separate the which is which in proportion

But this run is speeding the flow up again.. shearing and Lakes cutting as the S heights become ( perhaps ) seasonally impenetrable.  

On top of all.. the CPC telecon spread is even inched warmer by curve interpretation...  I'll tell ya, this run appears to offer two trace of snow chances at Logan through 360 hours. If those fail, heh...  we put March in the Blutowski running...

There has never been a 0     point     0       0        March at Logan.  One's gotta figure we get nothing out of March but a ruined futility trophy at some point.  

 

 

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53 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Last night Fisher had a graphic showing March snowfall in Boston by date. He only showed the last 10 years so I think it may have been skewed high but we have done well in the first 20 days of the month but it drops quickly once past that. He also mentioned that Boston had no accumulating snow last year and we have never recorded a back to back snowless March. Accumulating and plowable are to very different things however.

 

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I can see it in the 12z operational GFS's 'attitude' - for lack of better word.

The arguments I've put forth regarding either La Nina ... HC  ( or somehow someway they work together ) is also muddled causality melded in with spring heights inching higher ( coherently in this run..)

Its difficult to separate the which is which in proportion

But this run is speeding the flow up again.. shearing and Lakes cutting as the S heights become ( perhaps ) seasonally impenetrable.  

On top of all.. the CPC telecon spread is even inched warmer by curve interpretation...  I'll tell ya, this run appears to offer two trace of snow chances at Logan through 360 hours. If those fail, heh...  we put March in the Blutowski running...

There has never been a 0     point     0       0        March at Logan.  One's gotta figure we get nothing out of March but a ruined futility trophy at some point.  

 

 

Last year was. Just some T’s. 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Cold day with full pack.  A week from now it will be but a memory and some piles

Funny. We haven’t had a “pack” or anything at all for about 2 solid weeks now. 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

My map has BOX right about 40” for average. Granted, I made the map like over a decade ago. You could probably add a couple inches to the long term average there given how ridiculous the 2010s were there. I’d probably drag that 40” contour a solid 10-15 miles southeast if I included the 2010s  

 

SNE_snowfall.thumb.PNG.47db214da799b5ae6b2d2116df573cf0.PNG

Yeah... my specific location close to Easton probably averages somewhere in the mid 40s I’d say. 

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3 hours ago, 512high said:

Going with Scott's hint, friend just came down to my shop, saw the plow equipment and said you putting that crap away? lol, I said stays on all the equipment till at least April 1 or so, he said I bet you $10.00 you wont plow a storm for the rest of the season.........I took the bet, I said 2" or more I have to go out per contracts, he stated "50s most of next week' i said perhaps, but what about the rest of the month....? He said he will be back April 1st to get his $10.00 ( lol I'm a cheap Greek he ain't getting crap!)

I'm going to go with the notion that there is 100% chance of snow in New England this month.

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55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boston's February record snowfall trumps ORH's by a good 11"...wow. Holy 2015.

I had 53. Epic

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That's better...

12z Tuesday in the Euro with 0 to + 2 C moderating throughout the day, under low RH ceiling heights and west drift - that is nape on roids.. Wednesday may be a real legit top 10 day -

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Indeed

604407160c8b1.png

I hope not.....today was 30 for the high and windy, little sun, felt like January. I am ready for Spring and will definitely be ready after a few days next week

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's better...

12z Tuesday in the Euro with 0 to + 2 C moderating throughout the day, under low RH ceiling heights and west drift - that is nape on roids.. Wednesday may be a real legit top 10 day -

Thinking widespread 70s maybe for 2 days. It'll be a recipe for overperforming temps. 

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23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Indeed

604407160c8b1.png

Good god that looks horrible.

Not happening but it’s even crazy to think about.  Its like 5 full days of -20C or lower 850 temps up here.  I can’t imagine a worst way to run the 3rd week of March than dry, frigid polar vortex over head.

5-day anomalies just for shits and giggles.

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And a 5-day average of -20 departures at the surface in the mtns.  GFS your drunk.

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