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March 2021

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 70° at Newark is close to the record.

Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY   70  36  28 SW12   

 

Data for March 11 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Date
Max Temperature 
Min Temperature 
Precipitation 
Snowfall 
Snow Depth 
1977-03-11 71 45 0.00 0.0 0
1967-03-11 70 44 0.01 0.0 0
2016-03-11 69 48 0.03 0.0 0
1990-03-11 68 44 0.04 0.0 0
2014-03-11 67 38 0.00 0.0 0
1955-03-11 67 48 T 0.0 0
797 
SXUS71 KOKX 111835
REREWR

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
133 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 73 DEGREES WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977.

$$
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5 hours ago, Cfa said:

NWS saying 64, TWC saying 55. :wacko2:

High of 61 so far. Slight edge to the NWS.

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Newark could be around 50° colder behind the Arctic front Monday morning.

 

063884B7-E770-46B7-A262-5B25F6683B16.thumb.png.0f831d5e013d872f0b67200f6c7b8937.png

 

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All three models have Traces of Snow during the next 10 days.    12Z's.

The GFS says we do not reach 50* between March 20-27.

About to reach 60* here apparently ---- by 3pm.       Still cool breezes here like yesterday however.        I got to 64* on Tues. [just 51* yesterday]     So  unlikely to pass that today.

Got 60* by 3pm.      NJ ranging  65* to 75* at this time.         Back to 59* at 4pm.      The  nutty CI Station atop PS 288, I think, is 66*.      Don't you believe it------they have a solar problem----T  too high on sunny PM's.

The high T's today were varied      Newark  75*,   NYC  71*,   LGA   67*,      JFK     56* all  by 4pm

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Such a wonderful, beautiful day today.....can’t wait until Sunday when DST starts....sunsets after 7pm again! I’m literally dancing 

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19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Such a wonderful, beautiful day today.....can’t wait until Sunday when DST starts....sunsets after 7pm again! I’m literally dancing 

Good afternoon S19. I couldn’t agree more with your assessment of today. However it may be prudent to keep, at this time of year, a wary eye on your back door. As always ...

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No plans for 3/18-19 thread (after reviewing ensembles). 12z/11 GFS ops don't have much support from other ensembles and the member that produced the big snowstorm was an outlier (today). 

I think we need to focus on 3/15-16,  more qpf and sooner than some of modeling. GEPS 2m temps at 18z/15 and 16 look quite cold and certainly colder than any previous GEPS modeling.  This also fits the colder NAO phase.  GEFS has moved confluence north, at least temporarily,  so to me, there is no doubt about an event, just how much front end is wintry and how soon it arrives Tuesday. My last impressions on this til tomorrow morning, at the earliest.  Hopefully subsequent modeling comes together = snow/ice to rain for the forum on Tuesday the 16th, ending early 17th. 

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Think it hit 70 here.  Just went on a walk with wife and dog.   Everyone else had the same idea.   Felt great to be out and everyone else seemed so happy.  Get rid of the winter sadness

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Today was very nice but too early for mid 70s. 60s would've been fine. 

Temps could be nearly 50F lower by Saturday morning and there will be a chance for wintry weather next week. 

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9th earliest first 75° day of the year at Newark.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
536 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977.

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1949 02-15 (1949) 76 11-11 (1949) 75 268
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231
1972 03-01 (1972) 75 09-27 (1972) 85 209
1964 03-05 (1964) 75 10-28 (1964) 76 236
1976 03-05 (1976) 75 10-09 (1976) 76 217
1946 03-07 (1946) 75 10-31 (1946) 82 237
1987 03-08 (1987) 77 11-04 (1987) 78 240
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-30 (2016) 78 234
2006 03-10 (2006) 76 10-18 (2006) 75 221
2020 03-11(2020) 75      

 

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Parts of Long Island and the Connecticut shore were locked in temperatures that rose no higher than the upper 50s. Elsewhere in the region, sunshine boosted temperatures to near record and record highs from Philadelphia to New York City. High temperatures included:

Allentown: 73° (old record: 71°, 1977)
Baltimore 79° (old record: 75°, 1967)
New York City: 71°
Newark: 75° (old record: 71°, 1977)
Philadelphia: 74° (old record: 72°, 1977)
Poughkeepsie: 71°
Reading: 77° (old record: 74°, 1986)
Sterling: 79° (old record: 77°, 1990)
Trenton: 73° (old record: 72°, 1977)
Washington, DC: 79° (old record: 78°, 1967)
Wilmington, DE: 74° (old record: 73°, 1967)

Tomorrow will be another very warm day. Temperatures in the region will likely rise well into the 60s. Some areas could again see the temperature reach or exceed 70°.

Afterward, temperatures will cool. Since 1990, 73% of cases that saw a high temperature of 70° or above during March 1-15 were followed by a low temperature of 32° or below during the following two weeks. 54% of such cases saw a low temperature below 30° during the following two weeks. The mean lowest temperature during the following two weeks was 29°. In sum, historic experience is consistent with the guidance that shows a fairly strong cold shot for early next week.

However, just as was the case during the historic February arctic outbreak, the core of the cold will likely remain west of the region on account of a fairly expansive western Atlantic ridge. Nevertheless, the March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snowfall in parts of the region. The ensembles generally favor the first half of that period.

Since 1950, nearly 60% of days two weeks after the AO reached +3.000 or above in the March 1-15 period were warmer than when the AO reached +3.000 or above. The mean increase was 2.8°. This suggests that it is more likely than not that the closing week of March could see a return to warmer conditions.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around March 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.87°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March. Afterward, neutral-cool ENSO conditions will likely develop as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +7.71 today. The SOI had been negative for 10 consecutive days. That development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +5.135 today. This is a rare event. Since 1950, only March 7-8, 2015 saw the AO at or above +5.000 during March. The March record is +5.588, which was set on March 8, 2015.

On March 10 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.090 (RMM). The March 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.087 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 48% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 42.8° (0.3° above normal).

 

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Near the peak T's today, the distribution of warm air looked like this:            I never got passed 60* and JFK got stuck in the 50's.

1615493700-sbPFsDo5G5c.png

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Topped out at 62 here, low was 37.

It’s no 75 but coming out of winter anything above 60 feels pleasant.

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On 3/10/2021 at 9:53 PM, donsutherland1 said:

That’s good to see that Colin was recognized. He has always been enthusiastic about the weather.

Quite frankly, hobbyists like him have filled the space left by what are often superficial and almost mechanical TV forecasts in some markets. 15-30 second sound bites are little more than time-fillers.

It’s no surprise that the Lehigh Valley Facebook page cited in the article has gained a following. The Lehigh Valley has both widely varying weather and a rich weather record. The Capital Weather Gang has filled a similar need in the Washington, DC area.

people like that know way more about the weather than many of the so-called TV "mets"

 

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

9th earliest first 75° day of the year at Newark.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY
536 PM EST THU MAR 11 2021

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 75 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 71 SET IN 1977.

 

First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
First
Value
Last
Value
Difference
1949 02-15 (1949) 76 11-11 (1949) 75 268
2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231
1972 03-01 (1972) 75 09-27 (1972) 85 209
1964 03-05 (1964) 75 10-28 (1964) 76 236
1976 03-05 (1976) 75 10-09 (1976) 76 217
1946 03-07 (1946) 75 10-31 (1946) 82 237
1987 03-08 (1987) 77 11-04 (1987) 78 240
2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-30 (2016) 78 234
2006 03-10 (2006) 76 10-18 (2006) 75 221
2020 03-11(2020) 75      

 

those 1949 and 2018 numbers are otherworldly- especially since we got so much snow in 2018 after it happened.

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 43degs.(36/49), or about Even.

GFS is back with 6" of Snow total, say  the 16th and 19th.         Other models are a Trace.       EURO/GFS T's are both lower---taking the cue from the CMC which was colder looking for days already.       But 70*+ by the 24th and still variable.

60*(56%RH) here at 6am.      59* at 7am.  (basically 60* since midnight)       62*/63* by Noon.       64* by 2pm.       65* by 2:15pm.      66* at 2:30pm.      67* at 2:45pm.      68* at 3pm.         65* by 6pm.       60* by 8pm.       56* by 10:30pm.

 

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Newark could see only its 6th March 50° or greater March temperature drop within 4 days.

3-11-21....75°.....3-15-21.....?

3-1-17......73°......3-5-17......14°........-59°

3-14-07....79°......3-16-07....25°........-54°

3-8-87......77°......3-10-87....16°........-61°

3-19-86....72°......3-21-86....16°........-56°

3-2-72......78°......3-4-72.......20°.......-58°
 

3C74C583-09C4-4292-9768-298B984B585E.thumb.png.0dc6ff8e4c0bfc5f598f537ef91b78b9.png

 

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Morning thoughts...

On this date in 1888, a ferocious blizzard was raging across much of the northern Mid-Atlantic region into central and western New England. The temperature had fallen into the single digits. Blinding snow was being blown by near hurricane-force wind gusts into towering drifts, blocking streets and making outdoor activity all but impossible.

Today will be a far more tranquil day. Under partly sunny skies, another day of unseasonable warmth will prevail. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 65°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 70°

Cooler weather will return for the weekend. The March 16-19 period could offer a period of opportunity for at least some snow in parts of the region.

Out west, a major to perhaps historic snowstorm is likely in parts of the Rockies, including Casper, Cheyenne, and possibly Denver from late Friday into Monday. Cheyenne will likely challenge some of its March snowfall records. There is a chance that Cheyenne’s all-time snowfall record could be challenged. At present, Cheyenne looks to be on track to pick up 20”-30” of snow.

March Snowfall Records:

Daily: 15.9”, March 18, 2003; 2-Day: 17.2”, March 17-18, 2003; 3-Day: 18.9”, March 5-7, 1990

All-Time Snowfall Records:

Daily: 19.8”, November 20, 1979; 2-Day: 25.2”, November 20-21, 1979; 3-Day: 25.6”, November 19-21, 1979

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100 Days to the summer solstice.

Some larger breaks in the clouds working from the north to the south.  61 here.   

Arctic blast peaking Monday with 850MB temps -15c to -18c.  Brief warmup Mar 18/19 ahead of the next cooldown.  Cooler overall the next 10 days or through march 23.

 

 

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