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Feb 18/19 Disco/Obs


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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, those are always rules to live by in the MA.  But the last minute drying trend, the major mixing for every storm, marginal cold air, etc., etc., etc.  Could have a LOT more snow this winter with minimal changes.  

This may elicit a dissertation style reply from psu, but NINAs typically find every way possible screw the MA. The northern tier will always manage to get theirs, even if the delivery doesn't quite meet their high standards.

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
920 AM EST Thu Feb 18 2021
9:15 AM UPDATE: Significant changes to the snowfall forecast
since the previous update. Warm air aloft has moved into the
region very quickly, albeit a very small layer that can be seen
in the 12z IAD RAOB. The warm layer is between 850-775mb, with a
max temp of around 1.5 C. Unfortunately for snow lovers, that
is all it really takes to change snow to sleet. This has
drastically reduced snow totals, as the heavier rates have yet
to overcome that small warm layer, which is somewhat surprising.
Very sharp gradient, with highest snow totals along/north of
I-70 and along/west of I-81. Have even seen some freezing rain
creep into the forecast area much earlier than anticipated,
which is rather concerning.

The general synoptic setup is no different than previously
described, with high pressure to our northeast, and low pressure
sliding by to our south. The warm advection aloft just won out
today, resulting in the lower totals thus far, as sleet just
doesn`t accumulate at the same rate as snow. That being said,
the impacts are the same, with sleet/freezing rain leading to
hazardous travel conditions across the region. So, just because
snow totals haven`t panned out in some places this morning,
still exercise caution when going out and about today.
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