Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,895
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Pszemo
    Newest Member
    Pszemo
    Joined

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, hickory said:

If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. 

This has every bit the potential of being as bad as 2002, maybe worse because you won’t lose QPF to snow and sleet.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nam is warming Athens, Georgia  from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I mean if the RGEM or ICON is right, this is a generational ice event. 

1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Nam is warming Athens, Georgia  from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch 

This for sure! Remember this is what all the models, I mean every single one, missed on for our snow event. They all underestimated the dry air at the surface by a significant margin leading to a stronger in-situ wedge and a busted forecast for most of them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, hickory said:

If we were to compare this to past events what are we looking at? I know each event is different, but I’m curious. For example if you live in the Piedmont Triad could this be as bad as 2002? I consider 2002 to be the benchmark for ice storms. 

was this a December 2002 storm?

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

1”+ totals, if realized, would destroy the energy grid. That’s enough to down wires without any trees being involved. Generational would be an understatement. Look what <0.50” just did 

Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism.  Nothing has worked out this year as modeled.  Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable.  If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend.  If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement.  I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one.  The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet.  Time will tell.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism.  Nothing has worked out this year as modeled.  Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable.  If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend.  If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement.  I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one.  The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet.  Time will tell.

Your comments about the NAM should be bolded.  Ignore the NAM from here on out at your own peril.  I've been burned too many times trusting other models when the NAM is the king of warm nose forecasting.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Totally agree, but I think you would also agree to approach this forecast with some skepticism.  Nothing has worked out this year as modeled.  Both temps and QPF forecasts have proven to be quite unreliable.  If our winter trends hold we will end up with an event like we had over the weekend.  If the models bust in the wrong direction this time, then yes, generational will be an understatement.  I'm going to be leaning heavily on the HRRR and ICON again on this one.  The NAM isn't screaming warm nose as much as it was previously, so I'm crossing my fingers that 75% of what falls in the Triad will be sleet.  Time will tell.

This. Freezing rain maps are BY FAR the most unreliable maps produced by forecast models. Freezing rain is self limiting and highly dependent on both mid levels and BL temp. There is no algorithm that could possibly predict the variables that need to be accounted for in actual ice accrual that could be applied to every situation. CAD events are even more difficult because of the localized nature and remarkable number of variables that any location has for ice to accumulate. However, seeing these extreme totals on many different models suites and cutting them in half still gets us over 0.5” for many areas. IMO, this storm has a real threat to be one where some areas to see high end amounts we normally regurgitate as garbage from the models. Surface cold between 28-30, light precip for a large portion of the storm, and thermal profile that is not conducive for sleet make the Triad in an extremely high risk area for a high-end ice event. This storm, unlike the last one, has an incredibly high ceiling for ice impacts. I think anyone in the Triad should be prepared for extended outages and making preparations accordingly at this juncture. The trends across all modeling have not stopped and it is becoming clear that a significant ice storm is on the way. Do we cross into the generational category? That’s tbd but this has a real threat to do so 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Alchemist said:

Sitting in Pardee in H’ville NC waiting on my gallbladder surgery to start at 5.... really worried about this one, Saluda NC hasn’t seen a bad ice storm since late January 2010 and I think we are due... wife is out stocking up on food, and had a friend prep my generator... I.m ready but post surgery limitation will prevent any heavy work for three weeks...


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

I hope everything goes well!!!

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Hopefully some of that comes as sleet but sheesh, an entire forecast area in the dark if that panned out 

Another negative aspect this time is with the record cold and storms over much of the country the usual caravans of power trucks coming into the affected area to help restore power will probably not be available.  If a large part of the grid does go down it could be a long time before power is fully restored.

  • Like 5
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, olafminesaw said:

If you don't have generator, I would recommend going out and buying a camping stove. I think the ones that run on gasses other than propane can be used indoors if in a well ventilated area, but don't quote me on that. 

I would be very careful with that.  I’m lucky to have ventless gas logs hooked to a just filled 500 gallon propane tank. It gives off more than enough heat to keep much of the house comfortable and the rest livable.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

world Famous 18z GFS comes south/Lines up with the Canadian Suite now

 

zr_acc.us_ma.png

Boy if this comes to fruition even half of it I feel for people to my south. This again will be one hell of a sleet storm up this way if it pans out. Blacksburg had a good forecast discussion where it talks about fzra being able to accrue radially. So in theory if you got 1” you could only accrue 40% of that on the limbs etc.. would still be lights out but def concerning reading something like that. When I was younger we had a storm deliver .75” of fzra to our house in CT and were without power for over a week. Post storm was 50-60 mph winds. Thank god my father had a generator and a wood stove. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...