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Feb 18-19 long duration manageable snow and ice event

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8 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

Whether it’s wishcasting or not the radar is exploding down south. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

Whether it’s wishcasting or not the radar is exploding down south. I would not be surprised to see a northward shift tomorrow.

 

 

 

 

Radar might be exploding but models say a lot of it gets shunted east more than north.  Let's see if the models are underestimating or overestimating other factors 

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The location of that 1033 High to our North is key also ,no ? Is that High really more west  ? If so wouldn't it force the low to move East ? To get a better storm where would the ideal location for that High be ?

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15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I remember in Feb '87 living in Worcester MA, we got under a blizzard warning for the following day for 18-24.  Woke up next morning with a blizzard warning for only 4-6 (winds were supposed to be fierce with low snow).  Ended up with a dusting.  Models were different back then, but I am waiting for a reverse scenario and have yet to experience it. 

There is huge bust potential with this.  I could see a scenario where the metro gets 1-2 inches and I could see them getting 7-9...and I'm talking just in the 13-22Z period tomorrow 

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21 minutes ago, EpicHECS said:

They're now calling for 6" expected and 10" high end for my area. Would be nice to see some late magic pump this up just a few inches. 10"+ would be nice here in the HV, although there's less than a 10% chance of that. 

We keep hoping until the fat lady sings. 

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1 minute ago, EpicHECS said:

They're now calling for 6" expected and 10" high end for my area. Would be nice to see some late magic pump this up just a few inches. 10"+ would be nice here in the HV, although there's less than a 10% chance of that. 

Hope there is snow love one county north in Sullivan

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I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

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26 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

Well I give you credit for your gutsy call when no model or met is coming even close to your prediction.  

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32 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

If you are right, I wlll call you King George for a little while. 

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11 minutes ago, George001 said:

I am the New England weenie who is forecasting 12-15 with isolated 16-20 totals for all of Mass and up into central NH/VT/Southeast Maine. With what the models are showing today I don’t blame you for calling me a wishcaster but just saying it’s too early to say that 16-20 isn’t happening. Based on the low being farther west and stronger than modeled 16-20 isn’t out of the question in Central Mass to the Berkshires, and into the Hudson Valley. I was actually going to change my forecast and take em down but when I looked at the radar I decided not to do so. At least wait until the storm is over before clowning on my forecast, if it does bust and the jackpot is 6-8 then my forecast deserves to be clowned, but it’s too early to call it a bust. Hell I’ll even join you guys in clowning my own forecast if it busts that bad.

Glad you found a new forum to spam.  

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2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Well I give you credit for your gutsy call when no model or met is coming even close to your prediction.  

He usual calls for 3-4' on most storms.  He must not feeling this one.

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46 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Some guy in the NE forum says we are all going to be shocked Friday when all of us get over a foot of snow. Says NAM initialized wrong and low is further west than modeled.  Sounds like a wishcast.  This is not from a met! 

It's too bad WPC ended that model diagnostic discussion product.

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7 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

If you are right, I wlll call you King George for a little while. 

There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct.  I'll never forget that.

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There also used to be a poster that would write novel long posts about epic snowstorms. I think one of the lines was how wind swept snow would reach the peaks of telephone lines. Wonder what happened to him. He was great for a laugh.

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27 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There was a guy on this forum several years back who posted 3-4 days out from a storm that looked like a 1-2 incher at best it would be 8-12 inches and ended up correct.  I'll never forget that.

Wish he was still with us 

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The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us :(

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6 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us :(

Hence why I was concerned about the strung out mess possibility ruining the whole system. Lousy WAA shunted east event and coastal system getting going too late. Honestly I have no clue what to expect tomorrow or Fri. Good luck to the meteorologists paid to make these calls. “Straightforward” I guess not with these 0z models so far. 

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The upcoming complex system will provide a good test for the GFSv16. Over the last 5 cycles (2/17 0z through 2/18 0z), the GFSv16 has had much better run-to-run continuity than the GFS. 

The standard deviation for three select cities follows:

ABE: GFS: 0.87”; GFSv16: 0.67”

NYC: GFS: 1.46”; GFSv16: 0.54”

PHL: GFS: 1.60”; GFSv16: 0.68”

Snowfall Amounts:

ABE: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 6.3” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 6.3”; GFSv16: 5.2”

NYC: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.6”; GFSv16: 4.8” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.4”; GFSv16: 5.5”

PHL: 2/17 0z: GFS: 7.1”; GFSv16: 7.4” and 2/18 0z: GFS: 4.9”; GFSv16: 7.3”

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1 hour ago, eduggs said:

The GFS has less than 0.25" QPF for much of the area (excluding southern parts of the region) through Fri morning. Tomorrow is looking like a relatively minor snowfall on most guidance now. Hopefully a few rounds of steady snow on Fri make up for it. But if the follow up wave fails to deliver I can see how this almost becomes a sub-advisory event for some areas. In my mind I got greedy yesterday and imagined getting the heavy overrunning and the follow up wave. And now it's seems possible that we fail on both. Even the finger of initial light overrunning that most models pointed at us for days also went north of us :(

It'll be fine. A general 4-6" is likely with higher amounts possible. 

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