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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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Man cutoff will definitely be insanely close to me along I74. Models are wavering on whether I cash in or not. Obviously impossible to nail exact location and timing of the rain snow line when it's highly dependent on dynamic cooling. Temps were 35-36 here but have now dropped to 33 with light rain. If it weren't for that warm nose aloft would probably get wet snow soon. But hoping maybe we're running cooler and can changeover quicker but not holding my breath. 

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

You offend our Detroit, Peoria and St. Louis friends.

Why can't Jan 99 storms grow on trees?

This is definitely not spread the wealth from Detroit to Toronto corridor lol.  Of course when that usually happens Chicago misses out. Indiana and Ohio are definitely more due for a 6"+ storm than anywhere north of I 80, but a true spread the wealth storm that would envelop all or most of this sub is extremely rare.

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7 minutes ago, vortex said:

Just started snowing here.  It’s been all snow with some nice flake size.  
 

I’m downtown today, and it’s been lightly snowing for an hour or so. Mostly rimed flakes. But as you said, flake size is real nice right now. If we can hold onto to that for the meat and potatoes of this event, then...:mapsnow::D

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2 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I’m downtown today, and it’s been lightly snowing for an hour or so. Mostly rimed flakes. But as you said, flake size is real nice right now. If we can hold onto to that for the meat and potatoes of this event, then...:mapsnow::D

Definitely.  
 Looks like some better returns about to swing through shortly.  
 

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5 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Anyone think NWS bumps snow totals.

MKE already has, albeit not by much. Went from 5-9 for the far SE counties to 7-10. 
 

LOT also working in this so wording on the latest AFD: 

For an additional tweak from the previous forecast, based off very
consistent ensemble probabilities and ingredients lining up for
high QPF and heavy snow into portions of northern Illinois and
northwest Indiana this evening, confidence has increased in a
swath of 8"+ amounts, including interior portions of the city of
Chicago.

Don’t think they will change amounts (at least not much) but confidence does seem to be growing that we could see some local amounts approaching or maybe exceeding double digits. Wait and see now.

8F6A2E46-982D-4EB6-8FEE-670C6B4FEBFE.jpeg

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