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BooneWX

Jan 31st CAD event

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4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

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5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.

Ehhh.

This setup is not like a typical Miller B fashion.

Imo the h5 ULL & energy kind of at a high latitude. Considering too the parent High(high latitude) and it's ridge axis entending south. Not much of a meso high into PA,MD,VA.

If you have noticed too the parent high doesn't really move. That indicates blocking up stream.

But considering all in all I'd said that's a reasonable call.

 

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16 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.

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Brad P isn’t feeling it especially for the foothills. I’m not feeling this setup either and think the models are way overdone. 431dc799e88c3c02bda964438df4d76d.jpg&key=c8fb456a685e69c30b079335ebbb4201d122ffee65ceb15ce68acbbe0ff1bba8

It will be fun to watch levels and heights. But I expect nothing here in Rutherford county IMBY. Just not cold rain.


.

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.

I found some slides on FRAM which were mostly what I was looking for. One interesting thing is there wasn't much evidence of temps below -2C helping with ice accrual. At that point it seemed like rates and even wind were bigger factors. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9

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1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:


It will be fun to watch levels and heights. But I expect nothing here in Rutherford county IMBY. Just not cold rain.


.

I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW 

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW 

It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade.

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1 hour ago, frazdaddy said:

Glad I had a new generator installed last week.

1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Me too

I had the propane guy come out today and top of my tank.  Decent chance the generator might be kicking on for all of us.  :yikes:

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12 minutes ago, Disc said:

It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade.

It will be interesting to see how it's delineated. I figure McDowell mountains will be warning and eastern McDowell will be advisory. 

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59 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

One would think they could program models to account for that, but what do I know?  :D

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I had the propane guy come out today and top of my tank.  Decent chance the generator might be kicking on for all of us.  :yikes:

Underground utilities all the way to the substation FTW!


.
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Happy with cold rain with this one. Expecting a snowstorm in about 7-10days. Thunder so deep the other night, had a few small picture frames fall off wall 

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FWIW the 18z Euro, seen below, was 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z run.  Kinda out of it’s range at this point, but worth noting. 

A7F91A02-7BC8-4A98-8AE4-3868CEAEED1B.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

I just saw @Bob Chill post in the mid Atlantic forum. Great seeing him post again. One of my favorite all time contributors. Welcome back, sir.  You’ve been missed!

second this

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My NWS forecast for Sunday. With the amount of liquid forecasted I hope they have the temp correct.  Any colder and it is lights out.

Sunday
Rain. High near 34. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
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1 hour ago, jjwxman said:

FWIW the 18z Euro, seen below, was 2-3 degrees colder than the 12z run.  Kinda out of it’s range at this point, but worth noting. 

A7F91A02-7BC8-4A98-8AE4-3868CEAEED1B.jpeg

aint nothin finer than a good ol fashioned sleet storm here in danville by the looks of this.....

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3 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Looks slightly warmer Saturday afternoon at the surface.

It is warmer, but mostly a product of less moisture so the dew point is lower 

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