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BooneWX

Jan 31st CAD event

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Just now, burrel2 said:

18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice.  

Is it coming in colder also for the 85 corridor?

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In-situ cads seem to always underperform but I also can’t recall the last time I saw an ice storm signal like this.

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice.  

Only one that came in warmer was the RDPS

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Is this another storm that ends up trending better within 48 hours like the last one?  Local news was even mentioning that MONDAY may be the best chance for some light snow around central NC.  

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^I think that's conservative but a decent place to start a forecast with still a lot of uncertainty.

Sent from my motorola edge plus using Tapatalk

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Freezing Rain QPF and Accumulated Ice (FRAM Estimate) on 18z RGEM

Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) - a rough estimate of accretion thickness on elevated horizontal surfaces. This product predicts the ice-to-liquid ratio (ILR) empirically from a large climatology and is rather analogous to Kuchera for snowfall, except that wind speed and precipitation rate are also considered in addition to (wet bulb) temperature. Bear in mind ice accretion is even trickier than snowfall accumulation and varies widely by surface type, shape, exposure, and orientation, so we urge responsibility and context in using even FRAM for public-facing forecasts.

 

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NWS GSP Winter Storm Watch:

Quote

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...

.A strong storm system will push into the Appalachians Saturday
night into Sunday. This combined with cold temperatures will
bring the possibility of a wintry mix of accumulating snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to western North Carolina.

NCZ033-035-036-049-050-053-056-064-065-501>510-300400-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0003.210131T0300Z-210131T1800Z/
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-
Transylvania-Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-
Eastern Polk-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Bethlehem,
Ellendale, Millersville, Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point,
Statesville, Mooresville, Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville,
Ramseytown, Busick, Spruce Pine, Poplar, Asheville, Hickory,
Newton, St. Stephens, Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River,
Hendersonville, Fletcher, Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah,
Patterson, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls,
Jonas Ridge, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Ashford,
Sugar Hill, Woodlawn, Old Fort, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero,
Glenwood, Chimney Rock State Park, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Saluda, Tryon, Columbus, and Mill Spring
257 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
  accumulations of up to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of western North Carolina, including the
  northern mountains, Blue Ridge, foothills and northwest
  Piedmont.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Windy conditions will be possible across
  the higher elevations of the Tennessee border counties Sunday
  morning.

 

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Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep?  Did I miss it?  I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still.  There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day.

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17 minutes ago, Disc said:

StormTotalSnowWeb (3).png

5” in Mt Airy is bullish. I’d think more sleet would cut that down but then again, maybe it stays on the colder trend.

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8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep?  Did I miss it?  I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still.  There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day.

I suspect they do not trust the QPF forecasts on the models.  I have to say I am little suspect myself.  Sometimes these Miller B transfers do not bring the goods like they are supposed to here in the middle.

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Just now, strongwxnc said:


Going for less here.


.

I have seen many storms similar to this where Marion had 3 to 4 inches of snow and by the time you got down to Bostic there was little to nothing. Sometimes even by the time you get to the Rutherford/McDowell border

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

The HRRR has a lot of....sleet here? 

9C185F65-5CE8-4614-B519-1DF02D8F0532.png

I do think places from Marion to Taylorsville up to Mt Airy see a lot of sleet, probably an inch or 2. 

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