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stormtracker

Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD

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Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

StormTotalSnow.png

SnowAmt90Prcntl.png

Pretty uniform maps. Nice to have almost everyone in the same spot for an event. 

Your top map is outdated 

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3 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Wes just said on the CWG stream that he doesn't believe the GFS thermals - thinks Euro is right. Just to ease concerns.

Can I get GFS precip with euro thermals? TIA! 
 

 

Yes, precip and thermal profiles go hand in hand often...

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38 minutes ago, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

Why are the ensembles so much snowier down here in the Richmond area? Is this skewed by an outlier or too?

Euro/eps has been the coldest global leading in. I havent looked at nearly as many maps as others around here with this storm but I do know the euro suite is the most optimistic with cold. You're def getting plenty of precip. Just need CAD to flex. You know your climo better than me tho. That always matters in the midatlantic regardless of what models say

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LWX AFD Update at 9:00 PM

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
9:00 PM UPDATE: No change to the previous forecast at this time,
but some increase in expected snow totals may be necessary in
the next shift. Model guidance continue to increase in
confidence of 4-7" for most areas along and west of I-95, with
the higher end of that starting to look a little more likely.
Would like to see another round of guidance before bumping
things up just yet. For now, see the previous update and
discusison for more detailed thoughts. 
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Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

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Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

HRRR is trash that far out


.
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1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

I think you should avoid paying too much attention to the HRRR at 48h

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

Most people around here only use the HRRR right before the onset.  Late tomorrow night and Sunday morning it will get discussed more.  It’s not generally thought to be too useful past like 12 hours or so. 

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12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system. 

I never looks HRRR or CAMS beyond 24 hours before an event.

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10 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:


HRRR is trash that far out


.

The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z.

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Just now, MN Transplant said:

The caveat is that after a few runs of the 3km NAM being dry, I’m not sad to see 0.6” qpf on the other mesoscale model prior to 00z.

And on queue, the NAM 3km is very dry on the front side again.  0.2” QPF by 00z Monday.

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

I know it’s the SREF but it’s still better for them to look good then bad. And they look VERY good. 

Are you looking at QPF on there FWIW?

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Just now, poolz1 said:

Hour 69 NAM....I dont know if the thermals are real but the tuck is real.

 

At 69 hours out in the future nothing is real

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2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

NAM isn’t having the back end for us.

what?  it's only at 69 hours.  Prob should wait until we get to the time period where the back end starts.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

what?  it's only at 69 hours.  Prob should wait until we get to the time period where the back end starts.

It doesn't on PW... but it does have a dual low structure set up it appears

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Our worst-case scenario seems to be the 00z NAM Nest dry front side and the 00z 12km NAM dry backside.  That’s about a 3” storm for many of us along 95.

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