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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


stormtracker
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Just now, stormtracker said:

It really isn't THAT bad stand alone.  People are comparing it to the Euro...so of course relative to that, it's awful.  

It's just a convoluted setup and progression...So there's really no way the GFS is going to get it right especially when we're talking about any sort of micro details.  The Euro, with it's resolution, is probably more likely to get the features right.  But really, ensembles are pretty valuable right now.

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

GFS still decides to stall a band of light-mod snow over the DC area from the costal/ULL. Weak for sure, but it's an improvement in that department

gfs-deterministic-md-precip_24hr_inch-2267200.thumb.png.39d557d99aac97f3584e863598d4e232.png

gfs-deterministic-md-snow_96hr_inch-2321200.thumb.png.9540cff0f4ed1568390f1893021fbd6b.png

10:1 because Kuchera is contaminated by pervious event in some regions. 

Ninja'd

 

That's an odd trajectory for that band...not that I'm complaining

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Para took a step toward the Euro idea IMO. Despite a similar H5 look to the op GFS early on, the CAD is better represented (which should be the case with the para's finer vertical resolution). This feeds back to a stronger, earlier coastal development. Need that H5 to come across a bit further south to really be in business.

eta: The low still escapes east - I was just comparing the H96-108 evolution. Also, seems to be setting up a repeat scenario D7-8.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

As bad as the dryslot is on the GFS it is still a 6-10 event for basically the entire subforum. Cant really complain if it ends up being right. 

First, it's more like 4-8. Second, the warmer air and rain would make the ground reality much lower. 

I think you'll find we can absoLUTEly complain about that if it ends up being right ;-)

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

That's some serious stuff to have them as the top two analogs, but I see lots of Miller Bs in there, including...

Boxing Day :yikes:

Boxing Day was a miller A it simply screwed us. You could make a (weak) argument it was hybrid because of the phase interaction with a NS wave but the real issue Imo was a weak wave that came across right in front that originally shunted the gulf wave to the south then the flow relaxed and it bombed due north but too late for us. 

WRT miller Bs you will always see some screw jobs in any analog list because frankly the difference between a big hit and a close miss is really minor on a pattern scale. If you go through some of the near misses and just look at h5 you can’t tell the difference from some of our HECS storms. I played that game once to prove a point. It’s hard to tell apart the screw jobs from the hecs at h5. That’s what makes them screw jobs. They had huge potential but didn’t perform. We will always be at risk of that from range.  Especially given our southwest most locations of the northeast hecs zone.  We need everything to come together the fastest. A late phase.  A suppressed STJ so the storm has to develop a precip shield late. A messy transfer.  A west primary that holds too long.  They all can get their act together in time the further northeast you go but any of those factors kills us.  We are always playing with fire here in ANY big coastal setup no matter how good it looks at range. Jan 2005 looked like a 2 foot DC hecs from 5 days then the stj got shunted southeast and it became all NS. Just this December every global was saying 12”+ for a while then the mid level issues appeared. The only totally safe setup here is a WAA wave with a cold high in front.  And we kinda have that here except the wave is actually shearing out again as it moves east so we become dependent on the coastal for a lot of the snow. That’s a boom but also bust scenario. Right now I favor boom but bust is always lurking to set @Ji off! 

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Still running, but GEFS is certainly better. Weaker primary cluster/slightly south (Compared to 12z), earlier transfer on some members. QPF panels for costal aspect look improved. Not a full on cave but its getting closer. This would've been the GEFS progression in the Thursday threat where we knew what was gonna cave to what, that's for sure.

 

Ninja'd!

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39 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Some decent snow/snowshowers on Monday as the 850 mb low goes to our north and east and gets squeezed.

Lol at ppl tossing this

CA3CCFB1-71E8-40E4-846A-1ED78FB51B96.thumb.png.46afc2b3b2f17e53678d867855793bb6.png

like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. 

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at ppl tossing this

CA3CCFB1-71E8-40E4-846A-1ED78FB51B96.thumb.png.46afc2b3b2f17e53678d867855793bb6.png

like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. 

Fredericksburg falls in the “screw zone” on the 18z GFS and still gets ~6” so yeah it’s nice and it’s moving a certain way....I’ll take that!

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at ppl tossing this

CA3CCFB1-71E8-40E4-846A-1ED78FB51B96.thumb.png.46afc2b3b2f17e53678d867855793bb6.png

like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. 

Let’s be honest, per TT’s snow depth change it is a 2” storm on the front side with some wackiness on the back to pump it up.  

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Just now, Deck Pic said:

Not sure it is worth much but 18z ENS mean is basically a 4-8" storm for DC metro and 6-10" for the usual favored locations.  But given the storm progression, you really wouldn't forecast those amounts....you'd break it up and probably end up with less than the sum of its parts.

Snow maps really cloud people’s vision.

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lol at ppl tossing this

CA3CCFB1-71E8-40E4-846A-1ED78FB51B96.thumb.png.46afc2b3b2f17e53678d867855793bb6.png

like it’s garbage. Yea it’s not the euro hecs but a 5-10” area wide snowstorm is not something you label a fail unless you have no concept of our climo. 

A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away.

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

A clean 5-10 is a nice storm. This isn't that. I've seen storms like this before and they are garbage. You end up with hardly anything on the ground when it's over. Long duration with a front end followed by warming and rain to wash the first half away.

Exactly this.

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