• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malcolm M
    Newest Member
    Malcolm M
    Joined
Hoosier

January 30-February 1 Winter Storm

Recommended Posts

Since we can always take the medium range guidance to the bank...

Anyway, looks like the next trackable storm for the sub.  Besides the snow, the progged strength/position of the surface high could offer up an icy transition zone.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The players on the field here are mostly the same as for the last system. Big block over hudson bay and some confluent flow out east. If I had to stab, I would say that this is rather unlikely to be a big rainer for the sub, especially east of the Mississippi and that even if it does rain, a front end thump looks likely.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The players on the field here are mostly the same as for the last system. Big block over hudson bay and some confluent flow out east. If I had to stab, I would say that this is rather unlikely to be a big rainer for the sub, especially east of the Mississippi and that even if it does rain, a front end thump looks likely.

Maybe, just MAYBE the confluence will back off just a tad and this system can be what we all thought tonight's was going to be.

Hey, at least we've gone from complaining about a zzzzz pattern with no systems to complaining about how the systems always downtrend from the medium range. That's progress...right?

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I figure with this system that while it could certainly be something decent, since we're skipping the 20" totals phase of modeling that our expectations will be more easy to meet this time around. 

That's not to say that I wouldn't want the models to go bonkers, but...

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Spartman said:

The 06z GFS says "Mighty juicy!" during the first round. ^_^

sn10_024h.us_mw.png
2nd round:
sn10_024h.us_mw.png

We’re so lucky to have you here

  • Like 1
  • Haha 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Definitely another system to track but considering Sunday is 5 days away, I'd snooze it til Saturday night. 

 

Jokes aside it has that look like it starts as a wave of WAA snow then gets squashed a bit by the block? Those WAA snows often produce good thumps then dryslot or turn to rain. Or am I totally seeing the modeled evolution wrong lol. Maybe the block will help? Stormfanaticind?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ride the GEM.

In all honesty I think this is going to be a slop fest and not amount to much, but would love to be pleasantly surprised. Temperatures aloft look like they will be an issue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

yeah I always imagine these strong waa driven events as full of aggregates and huge clumpers but they always end up as white rain

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Honestly, this one just feels better.  I'd be willing to bet that the current area of modeled snow will only shift 100 miles either way and gets a good portion of the sub!

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

As long as the block doesn't pull a stormfanaticind and repel all the precip, id definitely imagine we are good for all or mostly snow here. What kills me is I can't believe how model consensus is meaning nothing this year. I mean it's not like this event is on one or two models. There's lots of consensus on some sort of storm this weekend. What will happen? Who the hell knows.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 3
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

ggem really want to give me snow, been forever since i've tracked an event with an actual snowpack

Let it happen my guy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
ggem really want to give me snow, been forever since i've tracked an event with an actual snowpack
Toss the GFS thermals for sure

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS has a perfect low track for Iowa, but it's so warm it has rain up here.  It looks wrong.  All other models are colder with all snow for Iowa. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

ggem really want to give me snow, been forever since i've tracked an event with an actual snowpack

Ive seen this one before. Models at 144 hrs give me a foot, get my hopes up, gradually let down to 3-4 inches 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.