michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: It always weirds me out a little bit to see Canadians posting about storms that affect southern WI/northern IL (especially in the context of them being at risk for a rainer) because I think of Canada as this frigid place waaaaay far away to the north. I need to remember places like Windsor, London, Kitchener and Toronto are roughly on my latitude. I live a few blocks away from the Detroit river. On clear days if walking along the riverfront (and depending where you are) you can see Canada to not only the East but also the South. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 26 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: This is looking good for Iowa. The one thing keeping this good storm from being an epic storm is the quick decay of the snow intensity north/northwest of the low following the initial heavy WAA burst. Hard to believe a storm this winter looks good for Iowa! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 hours ago, Chicago WX said: Yeah, I'm not going to waste much time on this one. Can already see where this one is going to go. This morning's LOT AFD says all snow I-80 and north. So...south of I-80... It's gonna be alright. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFSv16 - Also a bit farther north like the op GFS. Considering the Euro has all snow north of the IA/MO border, I don't see Cedar Rapids/Iowa City getting rain out of this. I've lost count of the number of times the GFS had my area getting rain this winter and we ended up with all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 When you go through the list of what can go wrong, one thing we don't have with this one is much in the way of convection down near the Gulf to rob northward moisture transport. So that is a plus. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 40 minutes ago, mimillman said: lock the 12z GFS NO. Time for I80 south to score. Share the love 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: NO. Time for I80 south to score. Share the love It's all relative to seasonal, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, mimillman said: It's all relative to seasonal, right? I mean if you're following persistence fits the overall trend this winter. But holding hope. Team euro/gem. Ride or die 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2021 Author Share Posted January 27, 2021 If Cedar Rapids/Iowa City don't rain, then given system orientation/track/evolution, it bodes well for areas downstream in LOT that have been snow starved. Sometimes you gotta ride the coattails. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 UK 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ^ too dry. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: UK Similar jump north around the same time out as this past storm. For a few runs It also had the last storm maintaining its strength longer out this way which ended up being wrong in the end. We'll have to see if this one can keep its sh$t together long enough to give dtw a decent snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Interesting Iowa twist for the winter...can't happen 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 What does the GFS ensemble avg show for total liquid precip? That would be good to know over here if the GFS is simply too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: What does the GFS ensemble avg show for total liquid precip? That would be good to know over here if the GFS is off with its thermals. only .35 for you or so has some real clunkers for total precip also note that 5 out of the 20 on COD show no or very little snow over IA and N IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The GFS is certainly focusing the moisture/energy east/southeast of Iowa... different than the UK and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Nice shift north from the UKIE. Again, not expecting the brunt of this but even a 2-4" deal would be welcomed. Weak LES signals showing up but would like less dry air, higher inversion heights and colder air at 850 before I really got excited about that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 UKMET trying to crush my hopes and dreams. I want to believe I have a shot with this but definitely have the I80 north special vibes as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Seems my area is in the screw zone this season. I'm ready for spring/tornado season. Should be active 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 44 minutes ago, mimillman said: Interesting Iowa twist for the winter...can't happen obviously trash. throw it out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 hour ago, Baum said: ^ too dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro is farther north with the rain initially over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 The Euro is very close to the UK over here, but the UK takes the snow band east while the Euro east-southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'm okay with that euro run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Baum said: I'm okay with that euro run. Lock it in! (I think this is my first real chance at a 6"+ storm in a very long time.) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormfanaticInd Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The Euro is very close to the UK over here, but the UK takes the snow band east while the Euro east-southeast. Fingers crossed here in Indy but highly doubt this verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Well, it's an improvement from 00z for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Feeling Cyclone jackpot with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, mimillman said: Well, it's an improvement from 00z for sure. we're golden 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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