Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[SyracuseStorm]

35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It'll correct as we get closer, it always does.

Yep- typically corrects NW

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, snowman19 said:

If anyone is really expecting the biggest NYC snowstorm ever in history (over 27 inches - January, 2016) this week, they’re probably going to be very sorely disappointed 

Agree but I don’t think 15-20 inches im some spots of the metro is out of the question 

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Maybe a dumb question,  but what is this Kuchera ratio? It always seems higher than other guidance. 

I believe it takes in account for ratios and such.

[Northof78]

Tough to see how anyone in C NJ/N NJ/NYC gets less than about 10” with this storm, despite very different detailed solutions. Despite the GFS, NAM, and EURO being worlds apart in details, all are at least 10” for most of the region....

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree but I don’t think 15-20 inches im some spots of the metro is out of the question 

I think most here are keeping it real and that includes up to 20 inches. 

[White Gorilla]

22 minutes ago, 72bundy said:

Blasphemy

Why?  It is a possibility. Again, we need to stop throwing out solutions we don't like.  There are solutions giving me less than 6 inches but I accept them in the range of possibilities.  I can understand saying a solution maybe less likely given trends, model convergence, but all is on the table at this point. 

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Tough to see how anyone in C NJ/N NJ/NYC gets less than about 10” with this storm, despite very different detailed solutions. Despite the GFS, NAM, and EURO being worlds apart in details, all are at least 10” for most of the region....

This is why I was always more worried about suppression than north with this storm. Even the cmc which is likely way too warm is easily 10+ for the city 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Why?  It is a possibility. Again, we need to stop throwing out solutions we don't like.  There are solutions giving me less than 6 inches but I accept them in the range of possibilities.  I can understand saying a solution maybe less likely given trends, model convergence, but all is on the table at this point. 

Yes but it’s a weaker model with an outlier solution so toss for now unless it gets support from other models 

[SleetStormNJ]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The sensitivity seems to be how fast the trough goes neutral tilt. The NAM is more positive tilt than the CMC, so it has had a colder track further east. The NAM seems to be closer to consensus so far today than the GEM.

The Euro made significant shifts in that direction too after holding steady days earlier contesting the GFS solution a bit.

[White Gorilla]

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Yes but it’s a weaker model with an outlier solution so toss for now unless it gets support from other models 

Even outliers can't be discounted completely imo.  As Eduggs mentioned it is closer to the RGEM. 

[RoughSurf]

I'm new here and thank everyone for their knowledge and insight. Glad to be a member of this board.

Question,  and I'm not sure this is the thread to ask, but why is it that Sussex's County NJ and points N&W have not been issued a WSW or at least a WWA yet? I understand the early consensus was for heavier amounts South, less North, along with different watch/warning criteria, but I would think the NWS Offices within their CWA would want to bring a headline for the possibility of this event?  Only asking and by no means criticizing.  Thank you in advance for any reply and feedback.

Mark

[jm1220]

The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own. 

[NJwx85]

My thinking today is that the heaviest totals will end up just N&W of 95. The ULL is forecasted to be much further North than yesterday.

[sussexcountyobs]

4 minutes ago, RoughSurf said:

I'm new here and thank everyone for their knowledge and insight. Glad to be a member of this board.

Question,  and I'm not sure this is the thread to ask, but why is it that Sussex's County NJ and points N&W have not been issued a WSW or at least a WWA yet? I understand the early consensus was for heavier amounts South, less North, along with different watch/warning criteria, but I would think the NWS Offices within their CWA would want to bring a headline for the possibility of this event?  Only asking and by no means criticizing.  Thank you in advance for any reply and feedback.

Mark

I am thinking they will issue a Watch here at their 4pm update. I assume because we were teetering on the edge of warning level snows and they wanted to wait to see what models did today.

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own. 

I said this on another board. 

An interior and North hit has made the most sense to me from day one. I know I waivered with confluence... However, I don't believe this is a Coastal plain hit. The pattern hasn't supported it all winter and the Pacific is again flexing its muscles. Combined with LA Nina, I really don't see the Coastal plain taking a hard hit.

That withstanding, the big cities - and more specifically - N and W, I expect these areas to take a pretty hard hit. DC and BWI are in the game as well as they will stay west of the LP.

Just my opinion. I've eaten plenty of crow before, so I wouldn't mind eating more (sustained me through covid)

Lastly, the waters are warm. This will favor a quicker intensification and negative tilt. Likewise, if the storm stalls and the coast takes a prolonged period of easterly winds, this bodes ominously as well. 

[Rjay]

Fun forecast for the coast as usual lol 

I'm going with the warmer, more amped models.  

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

Even if there is a changeover west of ERN LI there will be Jan 87/Feb 2014 type amounts before the change.  I would still not be worried 5 boroughs and west at this stage

[SleetStormNJ]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will want to see what the 12z Euro does. 

Agreed.  One commonality that is significant in all the models now is the stronger frontogenesis and moisture transport and thus QPF on the models.  Another thing to watch.   Getting a feeling some locations in PA are going to get the 30” marker.

[dmillz25]

8 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I said this on another board. 

An interior and North hit has made the most sense to me from day one. I know I waivered with confluence... However, I don't believe this is a Coastal plain hit. The pattern hasn't supported it all winter and the Pacific is again flexing its muscles. Combined with LA Nina, I really don't see the Coastal plain taking a hard hit.

That withstanding, the big cities - and more specifically - N and W, I expect these areas to take a pretty hard hit. DC and BWI are in the game as well as they will stay west of the LP.

Just my opinion. I've eaten plenty of crow before, so I wouldn't mind eating more (sustained me through covid)

Lastly, the waters are warm. This will favor a quicker intensification and negative tilt. Likewise, if the storm stalls and the coast takes a prolonged period of easterly winds, this bodes ominously as well. 

Huh? The pna gets getting better and better. But I do agree that NW could do the best but the big cities will do just as well as them. I think SE of 95 could mix for a while but they too will do good

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The new UKMET looks a lot like the GGEM to me, so it's not on its own. 

Ukie hasn't been steady at all with this storm. Even so , alot of snow will fall before hand.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, this will be one of the most anticipated 12z Euro runs in a while. I have to share the concern of others how tucked in near the coast the storms have been last 3 seasons. Those CMC and UKMET runs highlight the risks. 

8-12 inches is a good call

[USCG RS]

3 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Huh? The pna gets getting better and better. But I do agree that NW could do the best but the big cities will do just as well as them. I think SE of 95 could mix for a while but they too will do good

The pna continues to forecast going neutral, however, it keeps getting pushed back, and is now looking to potentially do so just after the storm. That withstanding, the negative tilt looks to hurt rather than help the Coastal plain and the amping looks to flood the Coastal plain. 

Again, I could be - and would gladly be - wrong. But just my two cents. 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Ukie hasn't been steady at all with this storm. Even so , alot of snow will fall before hand.

There will be a shaft zone if indeed the changeover gets as far west as NYC because the dynamics don't get going for awhile.  I said before the snow could be pretty light and unimpressive through 12Z Monday before it goes crazy.  There is sort of a zone in SE PA and SW NJ that might do well all night but up here I think it could be pretty meh and then go nuts after 10-12Z..if the changeover makes it far west I think there will be a relative snow min area 

[MJO812]

Its hilarious how the emotions have been. First  everyone was afraid how this might be suppressed and then now the worry is too amped.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its hilarious how the emotions have been. First  everyone was afraid how this might be suppressed and then now the worry is too amped.

Can you blame people? It's deja vu all over again.

[SleetStormNJ]

One thing I have learned with setups like these more so than Miller As is expect to be on edge of seat either way and surprised. Some develop too slowly or have sloppy transfer/development and others just explode.  

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its hilarious how the emotions have been. First  everyone was afraid how this might be suppressed and then now the worry is too amped.

If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it. 

[jm1220]

Just now, SleetStormNJ said:

One thing I have learned with setups like these more so than Miller As is expect to be on edge of seat either way and surprised. Some develop too slowly or have sloppy transfer/development and others just explode.  

This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm. 

[SleetStormNJ]

Just now, jm1220 said:

This isn't a miller A. It's a miller B transferring storm. 

That’s inferred in my post.  I assume most of us are caught up on the Miller classifications.  If not, I’ve seen some good Miller Bs for my area in NJ.  Dec 2003, Jan 2005, couple last decade of variety in scale, and even fringed on a few that slammed LI late the last decade.  

[SleetStormNJ]

I’m too lazy maybe to look officially but wasn’t the Feb 2013 monster that dumped LI and CT a Miller B?