Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, Snowfreak09 said:

Staten Island 

Estimate midnight Sunday in terms of real snow arriving 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Likely 7pm-1am Sunday night but the first few hours of this event will probably be pretty meaningless light snow 

LOL we basically used the same terminology in reverse. Meaningless vs real 

[NEG NAO]

Jan 2016 an analog ? Seems like on every clown map I am in the Bullseye in north central NJ

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Jan 2016 an analog ? Seems like on every clown map I am in the Bullseye in north central NJ

This is the GFS version that nailed that December event correct?

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is the GFS version that nailed that December event correct?

Think this will be better north of the city than that event but yes for the city and south may be similar (probably not quite as high totals) 

[justinj]

Is anyone really that concerned with mixing for Li?

[MJO812]

24 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Jan 2016 an analog ? Seems like on every clown map I am in the Bullseye in north central NJ

It is an analog on CIPS

[MJO812]

Wow Nam looks great

 

Very amped and cold

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is an analog on CIPS

There is a good snowstorm coming for NYC, no doubt. Twitter is ridiculous though, I’m seeing people comparing this storm to February, 2006, January, 2016, December, 2010, February, 2010, January, 1996. Ludicrous comparisons, completely different setups, totally. Some people go with the most historic snowstorms ever in NYC every time a storm is coming and say they are great analogs and identical setups and run with it for hype and clickbait. It’s like everytime there’s a storm off the east coast, those historic storms become “great analogs” and “identical setups” to some, every winter.....

[HVSnowLover]

NAM coming in SE of its last run as expected 

[mattinpa]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Wow Nam looks great

 

Very amped and cold

Yes it is better for a lot - DC gets a better thump and there is less mixing in my region. But NYC really makes out on this run.

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

22 minutes ago, justinj said:

Is anyone really that concerned with mixing for Li?

Not really in any kind of meaningful way at this point except maybe the twin forks/montaulk

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

This is why the NAM is not a good model beyond 48 hours night and day compared to its last run 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

NAM coming in SE of its last run as expected 

F57 frame 

[HVSnowLover]

The interesting part about NAM is it sticking with the overrunning reaching the city way earlier than other models and that’s now under 48 hours. 

[Northof78]

EPIC NAM run...top 5/10 storm verbatim

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, Northof78 said:

EPIC NAM run...top 5/10 storm verbatim

Absolutely pounds northern NJ and LHV

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Absolutely pounds northern NJ and LHV

Highly favorable ratios as well....looks like over 12:1

 

edit: maybe even well over 

[crossbowftw3]

The end result. Would be a tease to go from 7-8” to over 20 in the span of a 30-45 minute drive 

[Northof78]

Wow, longest duration storm I can remember, 48 hours plus of snow

[friedmators]

.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The end result. Would be a tease to go from 7-8” to over 20 in the span of a 30-45 minute drive 

Still too far north I think with the big totals but we’ll see about the next run 

[snowman19]

12 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is why the NAM is not a good model beyond 48 hours night and day compared to its last run 

This is why the NAM is going bye bye in March. The NWS is retiring it and for good reason

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This is why the NAM is going bye bye in March. The NWS is retiring it and for good reason

I'm not sure it'll happen given the HRRR is probably worse at 48-60 than the NAM is

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, snowman19 said:

This is why the NAM is going bye bye in March. The NWS is retiring it and for good reason

Really? I actually think it’s a very strong model under 48 hours but not sure what the statistics show. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Still too far north I think with the big totals but we’ll see about the next run 

Agree. The consensus with the biggest totals is further south.

Good to see Nam move away from a hugger. This is looking like a solid MECS with 12-18" totals. 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Agree. The consensus with the biggest totals is further south.

Good to see Nam move away from a hugger. 

How much closer do we see these goalposts narrow today do you think? I’m still discounting bigger totals this far north in Sullivan but as I’ve said all morning marginal warning level snows seems to be growing ever plausible here. 

[jm1220]

Maybe this storm can really do it-the 12” totals at Central Park and State College. Looks like this is an I-80 bullseye at this point. And in a moderate Nina no less. 

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

How much closer do we see these goalposts narrow today do you think? I’m still discounting bigger totals this far north in Sullivan but as I’ve said all morning marginal warning level snows seems to be growing ever plausible here. 

It may not be so bad up there. It’ll be a slower event than here but it may pile up in the end to not too dissimilar amounts.