Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Can you blame people? It's deja vu all over again.

Meh a foot of snow is great 

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

If you follow what the pattern supports people shouldn't be flipping out. I was always more worried about yet another situation here where we worry about mixing/dryslot vs suppressed. Not saying the mixing will really happen but too suppressed is off the table at this point. This'll be a big test for the new GFS, it's been the most bullish by far for NYC. But even these amped models seem to end up delivering a good amount for places away from the twin forks so I'll take it. 

I agree with you. I was worried about this from the get go and then doubted myself with the confluence. 

But - like I stated - I originally thought that the Coastal plain would have a hard time taking a strong hit from this. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

I agree with you. I was worried about this from the get go and then doubted myself with the confluence. 

But - like I stated - I originally thought that the Coastal plain would have a hard time taking a strong hit from this. 

This isnt going to be tucked in like the December storm. Models might be overdoing the warmth.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, SleetStormNJ said:

I’m too lazy maybe to look officially but wasn’t the Feb 2013 monster that dumped LI and CT a Miller B? 

Yeah, it had some similarities to April 82 in the general pattern but it was a more dirty/late phase and really favored eastern area.  NYC lucked out a bit with a mega band that developed late as the 700 low closed off.  The forecast looked to be on its way to severely busting for awhile that evening

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

55 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If anyone is really expecting the biggest NYC snowstorm ever in history (over 27 inches - January, 2016) this week, they’re probably going to be very sorely disappointed 

You're really going out on a limb with that one.

[Dan76]

Whats the wind situation with this.

[weatherpruf]

15 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

That’s inferred in my post.

Indeed. I always tend to go lower. A typical storm for our area is 4-8. I see nothing here to convince me we would be much beyond 6-10. Not yet. These models waffle so much, it's almost TMI. 

[weatherpruf]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This isnt going to be tucked in like the December storm. Models might be overdoing the warmth.

Models IMO tend to under estimate the warmth, at leas that's what I seem to recall.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You're really going out on a limb with that one.

Who the hell is expecting that lol

[Jt17]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Models IMO tend to under estimate the warmth, at leas that's what I seem to recall.

He was referring to the short term models like the NAM that haven't come into range yet and usually have a warm and amped bias. The globals aren't showing the same thing. 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Who the hell is expecting that lol

SOme of those maps printed that, but most didn't take it seriously. I like a 6-10 event based on what I'm reading here, probably some period of mixing. Better than the last two winters, eh?

[weatherpruf]

Just now, Jt17 said:

He was referring to the short term models like the NAM that haven't come into range yet and usually have a warm and amped bias. The globals aren't showing the same thing. 

Got it.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's because any 12"+ storm is historic for us and this one looks to nail everyone from DC to Boston, which is even rarer...from a Miller B no less. 

Given the amount of moisture fed into this and the lengthy period of snow I could see why Jan 2016 could be mentioned. 

Don't see why we can't see 20"+ amounts honestly.

I'm not quite sure how you define historic but NYC, which is usually on the low end of the storm totals, has had 38 storms of 12 inches or more, 66 storm of 10 inches or more, including about a month ago, and 10 storms of a foot or more in the last 20 years. Historic might be a little strong, 20 inches or more in NYC, there's only been 7 of those so that might be a good classification of historic for NYC, but I doubt that happens for them this storm.

[NJwx85]

I like 12-15” for NYC. 6-12” for LI and Central Jersey. 12-18” for LHV and 18-24” for Eastern PA and NW NJ.

[HVSnowLover]

47 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if there is a changeover west of ERN LI there will be Jan 87/Feb 2014 type amounts before the change.  I would still not be worried 5 boroughs and west at this stage

Agree

[larrye]

3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

Really? I actually think it’s a very strong model under 48 hours but not sure what the statistics show. 

Usually overdoes QPF pretty consistently even within 48 hours from what I remember.

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I like 12-15” for NYC. 6-12” for LI and Central Jersey. 12-18” for LHV and 18-24” for Eastern PA and NW NJ.

Agree.  I think cnj will be 12+ though. 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Euro looks a tick se thru hr 33

[dave0176]

What’s everyone’s call for the Jersey shore like brick and point pleasant??

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, dave0176 said:

What’s everyone’s call for the Jersey shore like brick and point pleasant??

3-6”

[Snowlover11]

end result euro ticked nw.

[Snowlover11]

euro 60 is sexy, has heavy precip over us.

[Ericjcrash]

What a band at 54 city and LI getting rocked.

[MJO812]

Wow Euro is 12+ for NYC

[HVSnowLover]

Welp Euro agrees with cmc/ukie  this better not trend anymore or it’s going to be problems for many of us. 

[weathermedic]

Not sure if I am reading this correctly but the Euro looks like the storm actually retrogrades westward off the Jersey coast between the 48 and 72 hour panels.

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Welp Euro agrees with cmc/ukie  this better not trend anymore or it’s going to be problems for many of us. 

Trend anymore what way?

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Wow Euro is 12+ for NYC

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

Trend anymore what way?

North, would be fine for you but bad for the coast 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Welp Euro agrees with cmc/ukie  this better not trend anymore or it’s going to be problems for many of us. 

Uhh? No it didnt