Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Snowlover11]

upton will be late like always.

[Greg g]

Weird everything around Orange County is under a watch besides them 

[Northof78]

PHL zones pretty much 11-15” with 35mph across the board south of Sussex....

[Blizzardo]

4 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Winter Storm Warning just issued here for 11-15" of snow. 

My nws local is 11-19 total...

[kat5hurricane]

Amazing for NYC and L.I. but is an outlier in regards to shafting western Jersey and Eastern PA but yeah, sign me up for this to say the least.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Greg g said:

Weird everything around Orange County is under a watch besides them 

New London too

[Greg g]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

New London too

Think. That is just a mistake??

[crossbowftw3]

BGM's WSW-acknowledges the longer duration to get to these totals+after this still going into how much uncertainty remains.

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 12
  inches possible.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Bradford, Susquehanna, Northern
  Wayne, Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New
  York, Chemung, Tioga, Broome, Delaware and Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through early Tuesday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...This will be a long duration event. A few
  to several inches of lighter snow are possible Sunday evening
  through Monday. Then for Monday night into Tuesday morning,
  additional snow is expected which may be heavy at times, along
  with areas of blowing snow.

[TriPol]

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

[snywx]

11 minutes ago, sferic said:

Horrible run for Liberty NY, virtually nothing. I'll wait for the full 00z suite so see if that beautiful green color moves 100 miles NW or come back to Lynbrook

 

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash@snywx comments?

That CCB is gonna sit and rot over someone in the interior. It’s anyone’s guess if it ends up over the HV or further west into CNY.

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Greg g said:

Think. That is just a mistake??

it was fixed

[IrishRob17]

4 minutes ago, Greg g said:

Weird everything around Orange County is under a watch besides them 

Orange County had a Watch issued within the last 30 minutes 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

they will eat crow by 11pm tonight.  they are always conservative

[HVSnowLover]

I think the reason western areas get more shafted on NAM is the low tracks further east (also why LI stays all snow). So continue to monitor the track. 

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Too far out still to an extent though at 48-60 the NAM is not as bad as it is from 60-84.  If the NAM is showing virtually the same idea run to run with only minor changes its more likely to be onto something than if you see big changes.  This is the 3rd consecutive run now where it has not moved much.

It looks like it came pretty far south from 6z and 12z runs to me? 

[dave0176]

If the NAM tics any further east NJ is going to get some low amounts.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

I would definitely say 8-12 or 9-12 right now to be safe

[nycwinter]

5 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

ir is a accuweather forecast on channel 7 same on the radio they are always conservative in their snow predictions

[Rjay]

26 minutes ago, sferic said:

Horrible run for Liberty NY, virtually nothing. I'll wait for the full 00z suite so see if that beautiful green color moves 100 miles NW or come back to Lynbrook

 

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash@snywx comments?

Don't worry about the 18z nam.  It was LI weenie porn.  

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, Rjay said:

Don't worry about the 18z nam.  It was LI weenie porn.  

Probably  BGM's first guess of 6-12 makes sense, we can still cash in on this but probably not nearly as much as closer to NYC

[kat5hurricane]

9 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

They are always late to the game, always. With that said, nothing is set in stone yet so best to start conservative and adjust accordingly.

[David-LI]

16 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

They play it safe. They could end up being right. 

[Heisy]

11 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Don't worry about the 18z nam.  It was LI weenie porn.  

It’ll be completely different in 6 hours

[Cerinthe Major]

20 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

I worry that power companies won’t be prepared

[mannynyc]

21 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

For reference Channel 2 is saying 6-12" and Channel 4 is saying 8-12" for the city

[Snowlover11]

for weather eye sights look at what the rgem does southwest of us, good lord!

 

[lee59]

1 minute ago, David-LI said:

They play it safe. They could end up being right. 

I suppose you play it safe until crunch time. You can't say 18 inches then 7 inches with every model run. It looks like a general 6-12 from Virginia to New England with some area getting the jackpot of some 18-24 or so. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

for weather eye sites look at what the rgem does southwest of us, good lord!

 

It was an improvement over 12z, all that really matters to me. I don’t see 35” of snow happening in Baltimore but who knows. 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, jm1220 said:

It was an improvement over 12z, all that really matters to me. I don’t see 35” of snow happening in Baltimore but who knows. 

oh of course not but just to see that is crazy lol

[justinj]

The weather channel forecast has Islip airport turning to complete rain lol