Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HVSnowLover]

NAM is epic and what will happen if the low stays far enough south to avoid the dry slot 

[qwerty710710]

I need new glasses. I get smoked on this run.

[Nibor]

I will say it’s good to have the NAM juiced and printing out big solutions, even if they’re a bit unrealistic. 

[Blizzardo]

Post the maps...post the damn maps....lol 

[Snowlover11]

WOW.  nam is a crusher!

[Rjay]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Absolutely annihilated by that death WAA band. Holy smokes. 

Holy crap.   

[jm1220]

Sign me up ASAP 

[HVSnowLover]

You honestly could not ask for a better run for NYC/LI.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Sign me up ASAP 

Will be higher than 10:1 ratios I think of nam temps verified 

[Rjay]

1 minute ago, Blizzardo said:

Post the maps...post the damn maps....lol 

 

[wxman]

Very volatile and unstable situation.  Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.

[Violentweatherfan]

9 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

In the ocean...

And Philadelphia 

[jm1220]

This would be 2-4"/hr under this band. 

 

[Northof78]

Nam is 1.5” to 2.0” QPF all snow....impressive run, more troublesome west of the Delaware, semi Boxing Day like

[Nibor]

That CCB on the NAM is a thing of beauty. 

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

Oh boy oh boy!!

[David-LI]

24+ hours of constant snow on the 18z NAM , a foot plus for most on this sub

[sferic]

Horrible run for Liberty NY, virtually nothing. I'll wait for the full 00z suite so see if that beautiful green color moves 100 miles NW or come back to Lynbrook

 

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash@snywx comments?

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, wxman said:

Very volatile and unstable situation.  Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.

That's why you're not supposed to live and die on each model run. 

Nam looks like an eastern outlier. Possible but consensus is further west. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, wxman said:

Very volatile and unstable situation.  Places in eastern Pa that got 2 feet plus on the RGEM get 7" on the NAM.

Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome 

[jm1220]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome 

Right, it's one possible outcome. The ugly GGEM/UK for many are another. 

[crossbowftw3]

Just now, sferic said:

Horrible run for Liberty NY, virtually nothing. I'll wait for the full 00z suite so see if that beautiful green color moves 100 miles NW or come back to Lynbrook

 

@crossbowftw3 @Ericjcrash@snywx comments?

Very unusual situation here. WSWatch hoisted but this isn’t guaranteed in the slightest. We have to keep watching this and won’t hone in on one common solution until tomorrow.

[wxman]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Yep this is a tri state area special this run but doesn’t mean it’s the final outcome 

It's a pretty wide spread of solutions relatively close in to game time.  Does Doylestown get 30" or 7"?  This is the kind of spread that one expects last Thursday at 12Z.

[MJO812]

Hi res Nam is intense

Ccb over the area

20 inches for NYC

[SnowGoose69]

13 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

Is the NAM considered reliable at this point? Or should we focus more on the Euro? 

Too far out still to an extent though at 48-60 the NAM is not as bad as it is from 60-84.  If the NAM is showing virtually the same idea run to run with only minor changes its more likely to be onto something than if you see big changes.  This is the 3rd consecutive run now where it has not moved much.

[SnoSki14]

Everything up to 36hrs looks good. We'll pick up a few inches with the overrunning. 

Then they'll likely be a lull as the coastal takes over and finally precip will explode over our area as the low may loop around just offshore. 

After that we'll have to see where the heaviest bands set up and if we get dry slotted. That will determine who gets the 12-20" amounts.

Should be fun to watch unfold.

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Very unusual situation here. WSWatch hoisted but this isn’t guaranteed in the slightest. We have to keep watching this and won’t hone in on one common solution until tomorrow.

Yup just noticed the WSW Let's wait for the full run of 00z tonight. We're good for between 1 and 18 inches

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, wxman said:

It's a pretty wide spread of solutions relatively close in to game time.  Does Doylestown get 30" or 7"?  This is the kind of spread that one expects last Thursday at 12Z.

Sort of but it all comes down to banding so it can be sometimes hard to differentiate who gets 10 and who gets 25. I don’t believe anyone is quite getting 30. 

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Torch said:

They nailed it this far out in December...

They did but this situation feels so much more volatile for us North of 84. We were always guaranteed a good event then, but this time much less so. Effectively speaking the margin of error between 1" and over a foot is very thin. I've forgotten how it feels to be in this situation 

[Rtd208]

Winter Storm Warning just issued here for 11-15" of snow.