Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[CIK62]

Latest Summary for NYC:

NAM     20"

CMC     18"

EURO   15"           17" on 18Z

GFS      12"

SREF    10"     a lot of wasted LE however.

[HVSnowLover]

20 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I agree it sure looks like that. But 1' snowstorms are rare outside the mountains. A lot has to go right - almost perfectly.  Even in the short term, ensemble averages are rarely over that threshold. There's always a lot of uncertainty that can spoil a setup. So I think it's usually prudent to stay relatively conservative until it's basically nowcast time. The impact usually isn't so different between 12" and 20" unless we're talking about a heavy wet snow. So holding something back I think is fine from a forecasting perspective.

Fair enough but there’s not too much that can truly go wrong with this. And outside of that wobble SE the models took on Thursday this has been modeled well for a week plus out 

[wdrag]

This is the NWS Blend of Models---differs from the local NWS interoffice collaborated forecast (posted earlier in this thread around 627P) and basically a statistical use of the guidance output. This from the 18z cycle.  This may be the way the NWS is going in the future.  Right now it serves as a baseline for some of the NWS product grids, whereby forecasters modify this guidance per additional model input and forecaster collaboration. 

Early next week I hope to have more info on the timing of the departure of the NAM/HRRR etc in lieu of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). Some suggestion not for two more years. 

[eduggs]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Fair enough but there’s not too much that can truly go wrong with this. And outside of that wobble SE the models took on Thursday this has been modeled well for a week plus out 

It definitely is looking good right now. But I can still think of lots of things that could go wrong.

I'll feel better if we can start to accumulate tomorrow night. Get a minimum of 4" down by midday Mon, another 4" during the transition to the coastal, and another 4" from the deformation/commahead. That gets us to 1'. It all starts hopefully tomorrow night with covering the ground in white.  First we have to saturate the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could be a slow drawn out process.

[weatherpruf]

37 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's funny how most of us think on here.  When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand.  The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."

I have two pals right now who are utterly depressed that it will snow.....one won't even get out of bed til its over. He lives alone...

[Gravity Wave]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

This is the NWS Blend of Models---differs from the local NWS interoffice collaborated forecast (posted earlier in this thread around 627P) and basically a statistical use of the guidance output. This from the 18z cycle.  This may be the way the NWS is going in the future.  Right now it serves as a baseline for some of the NWS product grids, whereby forecasters modify this guidance per additional model input and forecaster collaboration. 

Early next week I hope to have more info on the timing of the departure of the NAM/HRRR etc in lieu of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). Some suggestion not for two more years. 

 

Love how the "blend of models" has a lower amount for NYC than any individual model. 

[wdrag]

Check this: Probably some on here look at all the parts that make up this forecast but the SREF has allays been forecasting max near and n of I80.  We shall see. This is just another way to look at potential and it's far from perfect and seems to slowly 12 hour acscums.   But from what I've seen, 3 successive cycles its not too keen on >6" I95 sewd. I like the idea of 6 inch NYC CP, possibly a foot but am conservative because of dry slot and the shape of the 500 low... and NWS probs for 8" -- very good but not a lock statistically. Still,  enjoy every bit of snow we get.

 

[MANDA]

18Z Euro is locked and loaded !

 

Snow map through 02Z Tuesday

[Wannabehippie]

What kind of ratios will NYC/LI see for this storm? 10:1? lower? 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

18Z Euro is locked and loaded !

 

Snow map through 02Z Tuesday

Seems to love that initial front end thump but it seemed more amped to me. Low looked to get close to Cape May. That's enough usually to change the city on east over. But it would be after most of the precip fell already.

[Gravity Wave]

I think the deform band will set up along a MDT-ABE-NYC-ISP axis, much as the Euro shows. RGEM is too far south and west with the heaviest snows.

[MANDA]

snowfall and QPF entire event

[MANDA]

just for S***s and Giggles

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

snowfall and QPF entire event

Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.

[mikem81]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.

Its basically 3-6 hours of drizzle during a dry slot. Its really not steady rain at all verbatim....

[wdrag]

5 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

 

Love how the "blend of models" has a lower amount for NYC than any individual model. 

Stats: I think they run much better algorithms including snow ratios and thermal processes.  Thats why the prob >8" NYC is only about 70% . Not surprised. This is not the best set up.  The best setup is a more circular upper low and parked s of LI...not drifting north across New England. A very good snowfall and nothing to complain about unless you want 20" for LI. Could happen but i don't think so... which means I'm going against the soon to be implemented heavier GFSv16, for which i've no experience.  Someone will probably remind me of this statement if on Wednesday LI had 20", after which I'll be a champion of the V16. 

I could be wrong but when the max qpf axis is 1.5" or greater, it usually isn't all snow unless you can guarantee the cold THROUGHOUT.  Not easy.  We'll have a better snowstorm situation for LI within the next few years,  I would think. 

[HVSnowLover]

15 minutes ago, eduggs said:

It definitely is looking good right now. But I can still think of lots of things that could go wrong.

I'll feel better if we can start to accumulate tomorrow night. Get a minimum of 4" down by midday Mon, another 4" during the transition to the coastal, and another 4" from the deformation/commahead. That gets us to 1'. It all starts hopefully tomorrow night with covering the ground in white.  First we have to saturate the atmosphere tomorrow afternoon/evening, which could be a slow drawn out process.

Yea I can already predict all the this is a bust posts when the snow is barely crawling and running into a dry wall tomorrow afternoon and evening but this is expected to happen 

[KeithB]

23 hours ago, KeithB said:

With this Euro run....another 20-40 mile shift north and it's a pretty much an area wide jackpot. It's that close of a call....and with 72 hours from the event, that margin of error is easily in play!

From my post yesterday.....we got the shift!...now let's just let it hold!!!

[wdrag]

42 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Walt,

Any idea on ratios for inland folks? I'd think similar in stature to 12/17--guessing 10-13/14:1 again with temps not getting much above 27-29 during daytime Monday and falling back between 23-26

Haven't delved into the ratios.  You're probably right.  I saw there nam banding signal and I like the persistence for se NYS/ne PA/nw NJ  Subtle but good. 

[Gravity Wave]

Just now, wdrag said:

Stats: I think they run much better algorithms including snow ratios and thermal processes.  Thats why the prob >8" NYC is only about 70% . Not surprised. This is not the best set up.  The best setup is a more circular upper low and parked s of LI...not drifting north across New England. A very good snowfall and nothing to complain about unless you want 20" for LI. Could happen but i don't think so... which means I'm going against the soon to be implemented heavier GFSv16, for which i've no experience.  Someone will probably remind me of this statement if on Wednesday LI had 20", after which I'll be a champion of the V16. 

I could be wrong but when the max qpf axis is 1.5" or greater, it usually isn't all snow unless you can guarantee the cold THROUGHOUT.  Not easy.  We'll have a better snowstorm situation for LI within the next few years,  I would think. 

That makes sense for LI but it seems like the city proper should be able to stay snow under the CCB with any change over occurring as precip lightens and the dry slot approaches.

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

I think the deform band will set up along a MDT-ABE-NYC-ISP axis, much as the Euro shows. RGEM is too far south and west with the heaviest snows.

Yep, I-81 corridor in PA looking to get demolished. 

[ForestHillWx]

MMU looking comfy on latest models. Shoveling 18” come Tuesday morning; ugh. But it’s snow, so we rejoice! 

[jm1220]

8 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Its basically 3-6 hours of drizzle during a dry slot. Its really not steady rain at all verbatim....

At this point you're right, the outcome's fine here and the mix happens when the precip lightens up but if we keep this trend we'll start seeing rain eat into the front end burst too. Luckily we have such a cold airmass to start which should at least make for a very nice event for everyone. 

[sussexcountyobs]

I always love a slow or stalled low just east or southeast of AC close to the coast for my area. Perfect.

[jm1220]

My call for now:

Central Park: 11"

White Plains: 14"

Danbury: 15"

JFK: 9"

Newark: 12"

Middletown, NY: 17"

Morristown, NJ: 16"

Bridgeport: 12"

Long Beach: 8"

Islip: 9"

Montauk: 4"

Asbury Park: 4"

Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"

 

 

[Nibor]

8 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

MMU looking comfy on latest models. Shoveling 18” come Tuesday morning; ugh. But it’s snow, so we rejoice! 

Northern NJ looks like a great spot for this storm.

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, jm1220 said:

My call for now:

Central Park: 11"

White Plains: 14"

Danbury: 15"

JFK: 9"

Newark: 12"

Middletown, NY: 17"

Morristown, NJ: 16"

Bridgeport: 12"

Long Beach: 8"

Islip: 9"

Montauk: 4"

Asbury Park: 4"

Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"

 

 

Sussex, NJ?

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My call for now:

Central Park: 11"

White Plains: 14"

Danbury: 15"

JFK: 9"

Newark: 12"

Middletown, NY: 17"

Morristown, NJ: 16"

Bridgeport: 12"

Long Beach: 8"

Islip: 9"

Montauk: 4"

Asbury Park: 4"

Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"

 

 

Going low

Para and Euro disagrees =)

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Sussex, NJ?

You'd probably get what Middletown would, so 17-18". You look to be in an awesome spot. 

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Sussex, NJ?

16-24"