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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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31 minutes ago, George BM said:

Not an expert opinion but that line of convection across Kentucky looks more organized than most CAMs have it which may signify stronger WAA just ahead of it which may help us get a stronger thump.

 

1252021winterevent.thumb.PNG.a2680c87703dbafcb73bb44a4052c922.PNG

better not rob our moisture

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latest HRRR is a little mixy in DC and points south and east.....precip could oscillate...the warm nose at 825-850 is pretty shallow and insignificant if it's heavy enough

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38 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Ah, looks like you cooled down.

It’s actually 38/26. Cloud angle helping. 

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temp down to 35, after a brief high of 36. 

hope you guys down south jackpot! yall deserve it :D 

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I know it’s a bit shamed on here but the HRRR is not too enthused with snow accumulation. Basically has the entire area under 1”. Just not any mod to heavy precip. Will be interesting to see if it’s right or if the NAMs are closer to reality 

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2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I know it’s a bit shamed on here but the HRRR is not too enthused with snow accumulation. Basically has the entire area under 1”. Just not any mod to heavy precip. Will be interesting to see if it’s right or if the NAMs are closer to reality 

It's awful..I disregarded it because it didn't give me what I wanted

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2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

1pm obs

38/24. 1 degree increase in last  hour, I think evap  will be 50% so that gets me to 31 with steady light-moderate. Aloft seems helpful so might be better than 50% but it’s a safe way of predicting 

 

3:30pm

down to 36.9 with 24dp

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Just now, SnowGolfBro said:

Something resembling rain drops falling in Montclair. 

PWC not under the WWA so that’s to be expected.  This will go up and over us.  Actually nothing would surprise me 

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1 hour ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm still 39 at 12th and K....most readings around here are 38-40...dont know about low 40s...seems an outlier...

Are you thinking about moving?

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42 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s just his birth year (43) and the last year he had sex (68)

Thanks. I look younger than my actual age and the number you posted knocks 6 years off it. And for the second one it’s in hours. 

35 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol this makes me laugh a lot. thank you.

Hush. Ageism is a terrible thing. And his post was so far off it was laughable. So that’s what I did. I laughed. 
 

Baro is 30.05 to make this post non banter. Hip hurts so it’s gonna rain

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Just now, H2O said:

Thanks. I look younger than my actual age and the number you posted knocks 6 years off it. And for the second one it’s in hours. 

Hush. Ageism is a terrible thing. And his post was so far off it was laughable. So that’s what I did. I laughed. 
 

Baro is 30.05 to make this post non banter. Hip hurts so it’s gonna rain

like i will let you live it down. 1943 was a good year, no? :lol:

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32 minutes ago, high risk said:

Very glad to see the dearth of 10:1 maps!      Kuchera is a step up, but those will still be a bit generous in an event with such a sizable depth of the lower atmosphere with temps close to 0.    It's also worth noting that the 18z NAM and NAM nest both cut down their QPF a bit, relative to 12z...

I'm still going with the NAM nest as my model of choice here, and the Ferrier maps will best account for some accumulation being lost to riming with temps so close to 0 at several levels.   DC people will be happy that it wants to whiten things there.   For the rest of us north of DC, I think it's best to plan on 1-2 and hope that a few places overperform.     Anyone expecting widespread 2-4 will likely be disappointed.

2031794830_ScreenShot2021-01-25at3_07_28PM.thumb.png.01d0467c1b4b60ef485fa7966c39099c.png

 

Dont think DC people will be happy about a whitening. All day this has evolved toward  a 2-3” event for most of City and to north and west  

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Dont think DC people will be happy about a whitening. All day this has evolved toward  a 2-3” event for most of City and to north and west  

why do you post here

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Just now, Paleocene said:

why do you post here

Because I like making observations as the event approaches and during it. If I reject model worship or negative nellies then you will have to deal with it.

Now back to observations and let moderators deal with those who interject emotional chastisements 

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6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Because I like making observations as the event approaches and during it. If I reject model worship or negative nellies then you will have to deal with it.

Now back to observations and let moderators deal with those who interject emotional chastisements 

But also, why do you post here.

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