stormtracker Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS not honking for the weekend. I have some breaking news. Might want to sit down for this one, but 1 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS not honking for the weekend. The same map that gave me an 80% chance of > 6 inches last weekend. Besides teaching kids their colors I don’t see any value to these. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I have some breaking news. Might want to sit down for this one, but But we needed to see that WB snow probability map to confirm. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Crazy difference here . Remember the goofy control, which I personally hate, showing feet of snow. We need to get through the initial cold and other issues first. I am still bitter about the bust from this last storm. I will not be suckered in by means, ensembles, CIPS, etc. , unless the snow is uncomplicated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, frd said: Crazy difference here . Remember the goofy control, which I personally hate, showing feet of snow. We need to get through the initial cold and other issues first. I am still bitter about the bust from this last storm. I will not be suckered in by means, ensembles, CIPS, etc. , unless the snow is uncomplicated. Glad I'm not the only one who became jaded with this last one. Need a Miller A simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Still time ofc, but trends are not good. Reminds me of the old Atari game breakout 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Local man doesn't understand percentages, meteorology, or weather - News at 11. He understands what everyone should. Those maps are useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfpackwxDC Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 44 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS not honking for the weekend. Looks good for Snowshoe! ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Most people got three inches. Percentage Maps help to show me if it is worth looking further or just go back to work... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albedoman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I am a physical geographer. Meteorology snow maps mean exactly shite if you do not understand the concept of the data and how it is placed on the map in the first place. I love when these idiots draw up a snow map and have no fricking clue on the basics of how a storm forms and operates in the eastern US. Clown snow maps are estimates anyways and should only be used to as a reference to meteorologists where the heaviest snowfall may occur. This reference is directly related to the last storm event where the Lehigh Valley continually was placed in the jackpot zone on almost every model while everyone was wishcasting these same amounts over their house in all the forums. Go to where the heaviest snowfall is predicted continually over several models runs and the forecast can be fine tuned from there for storm totals. Clown maps also usually do not take the mean but the extreme-- that should be the motto when reading these maps. What did I get? 32 inches of snow- several models spit out insane amounts between 40 - 55 inches but I did not run with them-. The point was that the Lehigh Valley was the target area and most models were spot on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Very interesting. As others have mentioned we may indeed see a repeating / recycling of the - NAO in Feb and possibly into March as well. Of course 09-10 had a Nino versus this year's Nina. So far that may be the reason for less snowfall in our region versus locations much further NE. Here in the Mid Atlantic do great with a STJ/ overrunning from Ninos into 1040 High placed to our North. You know the deal. Tougher in a Nina. more play with the Northern jet/ spacing issues, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 ENSO update on TT. It looks like the La Nina has been weakening some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Here we have the updated 35 day 10 hPa 60 N GEFS, notice after this brief reversal, we approach and even exceed the ERA5 mean moving forward near the middle of the month. Looking at the PV on animation moving forward it seems to get itself better organized late in the period. Not sure if this is this is correct because the GOES-5 does not go past 240 hours with the animation, while the GFS goes to 384 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just curious, but is there any correlation from winter to winter regarding the nao? Specifically, does a negative nao this winter diminish our chances of one next year? If the Pacific had been in a better state this year, we probably would have done better, especially earlier in the winter, right? What I’m getting at in a roundabout way is that I think the Pacific will look better next year. What are our chances of a -nao to go with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Here we have the GFS animation frames 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Too bad the ICON is trash . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Cool animation, focus on the 12 th As others have mentioned, will need for the block to turn and retro before we really have a true threat to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 52 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I am a physical geographer. Meteorology snow maps mean exactly shite if you do not understand the concept of the data and how it is placed on the map in the first place. I love when these idiots draw up a snow map and have no fricking clue on the basics of how a storm forms and operates in the eastern US. Clown snow maps are estimates anyways and should only be used to as a reference to meteorologists where the heaviest snowfall may occur. This reference is directly related to the last storm event where the Lehigh Valley continually was placed in the jackpot zone on almost every model while everyone was wishcasting these same amounts over their house in all the forums. Go to where the heaviest snowfall is predicted continually over several models runs and the forecast can be fine tuned from there for storm totals. Clown maps also usually do not take the mean but the extreme-- that should be the motto when reading these maps. What did I get? 32 inches of snow- several models spit out insane amounts between 40 - 55 inches but I did not run with them-. The point was that the Lehigh Valley was the target area and most models were spot on. A worse and more dangerous atrocity is something I routinely see on social media - for hurricanes "Spaghetti Model" maps that have UNLABLED tracks and show every "model" (to include the extrapolated track, and ancient, obsolete models not actually used like LBAR, etc). It of course shows a wide spray and is typically accompanied by "LOL nobody knows where it is going could hit anywhere" comments. Of course the 6-7 models that actually matter are now routinely on top of each other, even out to 5 days, and TC track forecasting has gotten incredibly accurate. but these maps show 50 unlabeled "model" lines all the same color. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Please let the ICON be right just once lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Please let the GFS be wrong as usual. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I think the GFS trended slightly closer to phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Does Thursday night remind anyone else of Dec 8, 2009. That was supposed to be rain with a chance of sleet in the beginning but turned into about a two hour period of heavy wet snow that accumulated about two inches before turning over to some light drizzle with temps about 33 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Please let the ICON be right just once lol Did you see there were some "subtle " positive changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I am more worried about the trend in the system next week then the weekend. The weekend thing was always a tougher get. But there has been a trend across guidance towards pulling the trough more west next week which could complicate the setup for the waves after the weekend. Still a lot of time though for that to adjust either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 The GFS has never really been "enthused" about Sunday. At most it seems to indicate possibly a squall or snow showers on the leading edge of the strong cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 It appears the GFS will end up schooling the Euro for the Sunday event. But it you like tracking snow chances the 6Z run of the GFS is about as weenie as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am more worried about the trend in the system next week then the weekend. The weekend thing was always a tougher get. But there has been a trend across guidance towards pulling the trough more west next week which could complicate the setup for the waves after the weekend. Still a lot of time though for that to adjust either way. That is a pretty crazy change in the 12z GFS, as so much troughing gets into the northern plains that it actually pumps up an east coast ridge for part of next week. There wasn't much support for that in earlier GEFS runs - curious to see if the 12z GEFS supports it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, high risk said: That is a pretty crazy change in the 12z GFS, as so much troughing gets into the northern plains that it actually pumps up an east coast ridge for part of next week. There wasn't much support for that in earlier GEFS runs - curious to see if the 12z GEFS supports it. 6z Eps went to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am more worried about the trend in the system next week then the weekend. The weekend thing was always a tougher get. But there has been a trend across guidance towards pulling the trough more west next week which could complicate the setup for the waves after the weekend. Still a lot of time though for that to adjust either way. I am not an expert on using GFS 100HPA eddy heat flux but when I do look at the animation moving forward there seems to have made a rather big change . I don't see the trough digging on the East coast any longer. Everything seems to be West to East . basically flatter until at least the 17 th of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: I am not an expert on using GFS 100HPA eddy heat flux but when I do look at the animation moving forward there seems to have made a rather big change . I don't see the trough digging on the East coast any longer. Everything seems to be West to East The NAO retrogrades a little too far west for my liking also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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