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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Finally took a look at 12z runs. Lol. Busy af. So glad it's a 3 day weekend. 

I havent changed my mind from what I was thinking yesterday. Mixy messy for sure. Definitely surprised that tues could be straight rain. Didnt think we'd be that warm... Nothing available to push the boundary eastward. Bummer. Not sold on straight rain. Wouldnt take much to flip to some sort of frozen. No thoughts on the thurs potential. A lot of stuff has to happen first. Hopefully the general idea doesnt fizzle before we get there. 

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11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thursday, with the spacing after Tuesday, ends up the setup we thought we had for Tuesday. But Tuesday would have been even better with a fresher Arctic airmass and a TPV pressing over the top. That’s why I was so optimistic. But the waves Saturday to Tuesday all strung out into one continuous wave train that doesn’t allow the boundary to press east.  Thursday could work but it’s a shame, Tuesday would have been an even better setup had the Sunday/Monday wave not popped up. 

Yep, originally it seemed this weekend wave was going to help shift the ULL into a good spot to hold the cold air in. It does suck to lose our pack, but on a silver lining the cmc has lead the way with Tuesday so maybe we hang out hats on it....until of course it shows 50 degree rain storm at 00z

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Too bad!!!!! Take one for the team :lol:

I don’t control anything so it doesn’t matter...but the only way I’m rooting to lose my snow is if the storm we get after replaces it with MORE snow. If I lose a 8” snowpack to get a 6” storm that’s a bad deal lol.  Funny is the GEFS likes Tuesday more but hated Thursday and EPS is opposite. Watch them compromise and miss us with both lol. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Finally took a look at 12z runs. Lol. Busy af. So glad it's a 3 day weekend. 

I havent changed my mind from what I was thinking yesterday. Mixy messy for sure. Definitely surprised that tues could be straight rain. Didnt think we'd be that warm... Nothing available to push the boundary eastward. Bummer. Not sold on straight rain. Wouldnt take much to flip to some sort of frozen. No thoughts on the thurs potential. A lot of stuff has to happen first. Hopefully the general idea doesnt fizzle before we get there. 

I could see the last of these waves being the one that pushes the boundary east. Whether or not the cold will be cold enough when that happens is another question, but seems like it’s worth tracking.

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

I could see the last of these waves being the one that pushes the boundary east. Whether or not the cold will be cold enough when that happens is another question, but seems like it’s worth tracking.

Cold air sure isnt far away. Certainly reasonable to believe things can easily shift enough for better outcomes. Hit and run confluence or sneaky high at the right time could make a huge difference. I mean its not like we've seen sig shifts in 24 hours recently... just the wrong direction.

Maybe since models are showing crap and doo doo right now things can break the opposite direction and be good..... nah. That's crazy talk

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9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Cold air sure isnt far away. Certainly reasonable to believe things can easily shift enough for better outcomes. Hit and run confluence or sneaky high at the right time could make a huge difference. I mean its not like we've seen sig shifts in 24 hours recently... just the wrong direction.

Maybe since models are showing crap and doo doo right now things can break the opposite direction and be good..... nah. That's crazy talk

Gefs shifted south quite a bit 18z for Tuesday but north Thursday. Ironically the EPS did the opposite. Lol 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs shifted south quite a bit 18z for Tuesday but north Thursday. Ironically the EPS did the opposite. Lol 

Which supports the warm Tuesday—cold Thursday idea. There’s also more west coast ridging on GEFS vs eps. I wonder if that’s why the GEFS digs the wave deeper

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The NAM sure shows that progressive move toward suppressing these waves. It pushes the Monday system a bit further southeast than its previous run. If all of these end up more suppressed I don’t think anybody would be surprised.

The heck with getting just one better. Let’s get them all.

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS is pretty darn cold for Thursday. Mid to upper teens before the precip comes in. 

Yea but the flow is all wrong and there is nothing to stop it with the TPV long gone. Probably would start as ice no matter what but if we’re chasing snow it’s got a lot of work to do. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea but the flow is all wrong and there is nothing to stop it with the TPV long gone. Probably would start as ice no matter what but if we’re chasing snow it’s got a lot of work to do. 

Yeah. I think the snow option is gone. When your 850's are streaming in from the Yucatan you can kiss that goodbye. I would prefer sleet if at all possible. Regardless it looks like a pretty severe ice event. Temps here never get into the upper 20's until Friday at 0Z.

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8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I think the snow option is gone. When your 850's are streaming in from the Yucatan you can kiss that goodbye. I would prefer sleet if at all possible. Regardless it looks like a pretty severe ice event. Temps here never get into the upper 20's until Friday at 0Z.

If snow isn't in the cards , then ice or sleet is fine.....anything to continue building the glacier we have going from the past 2 weeks. 

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Unreal. Oklahoma City forecast calls for 8-12” and temps don’t get above 10 degrees the following few days. Seattle is also cold and very snowy. One things for sure... if those two cities are cold with heavy snow, we sure as hell aren’t.. Goddamn TPV. Crazy how quickly our cold and snow went away. Could have been an epic week. Appears the Midwest will get that now. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Unreal. Oklahoma City forecast calls for 8-12” and temps don’t get above 10 degrees the following few days. Seattle is also cold and very snowy. One things for sure... if those two cities are cold with heavy snow, we sure as hell aren’t. Unreal. Goddamn TPV

You can mostly thank the EPAC for the cold dump out west. Nina says hiii.

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31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

SPV looks like it may be getting up off the mat, and the -AO period may be nearing an end.

Bring it. I bet we see more cold air intrusions than we have had all winter. Wouldn't take much lol.

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AO going straight up from -5 to plus 1. What a winter. 

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8 minutes ago, frd said:

AO going straight up from -5 to plus 1. What a winter. 

There will be some volatility in the transition, and I would guess we see the coldest air of the winter in the next 10-14 days. With a little luck/timing we might get a good storm.

The coldest low temp here so far is 21. Have had low 20s a few times, on perfect radiational cooling nights. No teens. All the events that produced snow here featured rain or sleet at the beginning, middle, or end. Temps were 29-33 when snow was falling. So while it has been chilly overall, definitely not cold. Just ask the DC folks.

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