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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS says don’t give up on snow the end of next week yet, honestly I am hoping for a big one to pad the 23-25 inches I’ve had.   Not interested in these freezing rain storms...

6D5A1CC8-171A-4DEF-B84A-13A555AD8423.png

didnt it say that yesterday for the storm this tuesday?

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8 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I get it, but we have less than a month to go so we have to grasp at whatever straws we can find!!!!   Maybe something will trend in the right way for once this winter.  Anyway I will watch it for whatever it is worth.

After the current (very badly timed) relax we have a -NAO with 50/50 signature again late February. That time of year going into March that puts us in the game regardless of the pac. 

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45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS says don’t give up on snow the end of next week yet, honestly I am hoping for a big one to pad the 23-25 inches I’ve had.   Not interested in these freezing rain storms...

6D5A1CC8-171A-4DEF-B84A-13A555AD8423.png

I give up on those maps, the EPS has been beyond bad in verification snowfall.  The means,  when they were robust,  for the period around this time and going into the middle of next week are now meh.  Horrible is all I can say. Blocking is going away, and as HM stated the effects/influence  of the SSWE are beginning to fade. 

 

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2 minutes ago, frd said:

I give up on those maps, the EPS has been beyond bad in verification snowfall.  The means,  when they were robust,  for the period around this time and going into the middle of next week are now meh.  Horrible is all I can say. Blocking is going away, and as HM stated the effects/influence  of the SSWE are beginning to fade. 

 

That doesn't mean we don't see another decent blocking episode. The propensity for -AO/NAO began well ahead of any SPV perturbation.

The NAO simply effed us for this period by retrograding practically to western Canada at exactly the wrong time.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That doesn't mean we don't see another decent blocking episode. The propensity for -AO/NAO began well ahead of any SPV perturbation.

The NAO simply effed us for this period by retrograding practically to western Canada at exactly the wrong time.

So that wasn't climo...just a bad roll of the atmospheric dice, smh

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That doesn't mean we don't see another decent blocking episode. The propensity for -AO/NAO began well ahead of any SPV perturbation.

The NAO simply effed us for this period by retrograding practically to western Canada at exactly the wrong time.

More focused on the snow mean, and agree on what you mention, those predominant - AO states in the winter and espcially when associated with the SSWE , although we had blocking in December before the official reversal, is that we will see the NAM state oscillate negative again, like those dripping paint referecnes and we should get another blocking period in the AO during March. HM did mention the end of this month as having some potential based on a Scandi /East based developments .  

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So that wasn't climo...just a bad roll of the atmospheric dice, smh

Nothing happens in isolation. Who knows. My wag is it was ultimately somehow Nina related. There seems to be a tendency for subtle shifts to go the wrong way for the MA at the wrong times in a Nina.

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Just now, frd said:

Looks like before this period you posted, there may be a snow event that focuses more towards our NE. But, way out there. 

ACF8E76C-8F96-42FF-A4BA-88803E849E73.png

 

 

 

That one has been discussed. As things look now, it probably wont work out for our area, but still plenty of time. It does appear it will deal a major blow to the SER though, and possibly be the impetus for a 50-50 low to reestablish, as you can see in the panel I posted.

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3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nothing happens in isolation. Who knows. My wag is it was ultimately somehow Nina related. There seems to be a tendency for subtle shifts to go the wrong way for the MA at the wrong times in a Nina.

Except imo given the base state the pac was as friendly as we could have possibly hoped. It wasn’t good. Mediocre at best. But it wasn’t the central pac 3-5 std dv flat ridge we had all last winter (in a nino no less). We had some variance, some pna at times, some epo and some Aleutian low periods and very few shut the lights looks.  The whole time we had a perfect AO/NAO.  Dunno. But the reason I resist the simple view of “the Nina” is if you pull out the Nina’s with a +AO and a flat pac ridge (this was NOT that type) the others aren’t as hostile a snow climo. Only 1996 was a true blockbuster but most of the others in that type ended up near normal or even a little above. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except imo given the base state the pac was as friendly as we could have possibly hoped. It wasn’t good. Mediocre at best. But it wasn’t the central pac 3-5 std dv flat ridge we had all last winter (in a nino no less). We had some variance, some pna at times, some epo and some Aleutian low periods and very few shut the lights looks.  The whole time we had a perfect AO/NAO.  Dunno. But the reason I resist the simple view of “the Nina” is if you pull out the Nina’s with a +AO and a flat pac ridge (this was NOT that type) the others aren’t as hostile a snow climo. Only 1996 was a true blockbuster but most of the others in that type ended up near normal or even a little above. 

I think we both know it is not simply the Enso state, but just going strictly with historical data, even with blocking, there are more issues with getting above avg snow here during a Nina. The obvious difference is the jet configuration, specifically the absence of a stj.

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On 10/21/2020 at 12:08 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

It seems that the gfs modeling is right in line with what can be typical in Ninas. At range models will send cold fronts south and east bringing shots of cold but as you get closer the cold tends to hit a wall and gets shunted east and has a difficult time making southeastward progress. The gfs had already done this once, this week, and not sure that it won’t next week too.

Look at the date of that post. I only post it here because I am frustrated when I see that effing wall sitting off the southeast coast. There’s tons of cold air and we are just walled off from it and next week we will probably get to watch three storms surf that wall and be west enough, by just enough so that we get rain while we can smell snow.

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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

After the current (very badly timed) relax we have a -NAO with 50/50 signature again late February. That time of year going into March that puts us in the game regardless of the pac. 

We’ve been in the game. But we are the good kid the coach keeps but the closest he ever gets to any real game action is passing the water bottles down to the kids who are playing while he cheers from the end of the bench.

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I think we both know it is not simply the Enso state, but just going strictly with historical data, even with blocking, there are more issues with getting above avg snow here during a Nina. The obvious difference is the jet configuration, specifically the absence of a stj.

And yet we've got an stj next week...but...the temps...

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

I think we both know it is not simply the Enso state, but just going strictly with historical data, even with blocking, there are more issues with getting above avg snow here during a Nina. The obvious difference is the jet configuration, specifically the absence of a stj.

I resisted saying this but I guess what I’m hinting at is given the current N Hem pac and atl warm SST base states (people can blame it on whatever makes you sleep better at night but the current warm SSTs aren’t up for debate) I’m wondering if a pattern that would have produced a 20” snow year in DC won’t struggle like this one. I don’t think we are on opposite sides of this discussion but we’re focused on different things. Your points why the potential of the NAO was muted is valid. What what I’m saying is historically it should still have yielded better results than it did. Not 2010 or 2003 but not everything has to be blockbuster level.  Remember the chart that showed even in a Nina -NAO months still averaged above normal snowfall.  So your focused on why the Nina prevented a big 2010 type response but I’m focused more on why we didn’t even get a more typical historical Nina -NAO result! 

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Look at the date of that post. I only post it here because I am frustrated when I see that effing wall sitting off the southeast coast. There’s tons of cold air and we are just walled off from it and next week we will probably get to watch three storms surf that wall and be west enough, by just enough so that we get rain while we can smell snow.

The primary issue now/this coming week is the PAC ridge, which is a common Nina feature. That tends to favor cold dumping west and the SER rearing up. That has not been the 'problem' for the most part up until now though. I guess you could argue the robust -AO/NAO suppressed it, and now we have a relaxation up top..

Shit just has a way of being more out of sync and screwing things up here for snow chances a Nina. Very anecdotal I know, but hard to argue if you live in the MA lol.

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