Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

No doubt.  Under forecast is always the safe bet. But some people were convinced it would be under a foot which was too far under. 

East of I-95 would've busted low had the CCB not been so beefy. I remember the justified gnashing of teeth for the Annapolis and St. Mary's crew on Saturday when the sun was poking out while the usual crew was jackpotting.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

That 2016 storm was too stressful. It locked in way too soon which meant 8 days of model runs worrying was the rug getting pulled. I’d rather something we’re keeping an eye on trend better closer in. But guidance has become really good inside day 5 now. Not saying things don’t shift and details don’t change but if something doesn’t at least look promising at day 5 it’s harder for it to become a hecs then in the past.   

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" 

If the storm is amplifying and gaining latitude the northern extent of heavy snow will always be under represented. This doesn’t work if a storm is shearing out or sinking south/not gaining latitude. But with an amplified wave gaining latitude always adjust the northern edge north at the end.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

I'm actually going to your neck of the woods early (this saturday) to be there for this storm.  I'm going with climo.  I think we'll be in a sweet spot.  There is always secondary banding on the periphery.  EZF isn't jacking lol

Come on out for a pregame stout- fest around my firepit.  Bring Clskinsfan and Winterwxluvr with you.  Lol.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I remember 2016 Harrisburg was forecast to get like 6 inches up to maybe 30 hours or 24 hours out and broke there alltime record with like 30" 

If I remember correctly, which I may not be, the Nam had the handle on this one in showing a more Northern extent to the extreme snow.  But for some of those PA areas this was on the level of the Jan 2000 surprise.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Just looked at the Euro completely ( I know late to the party) but it literally starts Sunday evening and doesn't taper off till Tuesday evening :D

We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard.

  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Amped said:

We wake up two mornings in a row with the same weather. Think that's fitting for a groundhog day blizzard.

1996. Started on a Saturday evening.  I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow.  Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

This irritates me. This is not a low-tier potential impact storm. If the point of this matrix is to actually show potential impact, it's at LEAST mid-tier. Euro not withstanding 

Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

How much snow is a BECS?  Have we established that?  

I think in Washington DC proper, it's this...  Maybe a tad different in Baltimore and suburbs north and west

SECS -- 4 to 12

MECS -- 12 to 18

HECS 18 to 30

BECS 30 Plus

  • Thanks 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Interstate said:

Just because one model shows an historical storm doesn’t mean they should elevate it risk any higher. What happens tonight if it disappears. The general population uses these graphics and you cannot have wild swings on them based on one model run.  

I totally agree that you can't have wild model swings in a forecast based on 1 run, but the graphic clearly states *potential* impact. The GEM, GFS, PARA all show ~6" for D.C. and the EURO is back-to-back 12"+. I personally wouldn't classify that potential as low, and I don't think I'm alone in that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

1996. Started on a Saturday evening.  I remember watching the weather channel radar with the snow creeping north so slowly. Woke up on Sunday morning to Heavy snow.  Snowed all day. Woke up Monday morning and still snowing thanks to a perfect upper level pass. What a perfect storm. Ended up with over 30" in Northern Fredrick county MD.

Yep.  Started around 8 pm.  Waited until there was 2 or 3 inches on the ground and a group of us, including my 6 year old son, hit the sledding slopes around midnight and sled til 2 am in the increasing snow.  Watched the snow pile up all day Sunday while the Cowboys clobbered the eagles to advance to the NFC title game.  Sunday night we headed out in my roommates truck and we pulled sleds down an empty 522 south of front royal.  The plowed snow banks were  nearly head height already and it was like being on a luge.  I was told we hit 50 mph on the sleds at one point.   It was one of the funnest times of my life.  It snowed the next day into lunchtime.  Measured 37" in town. Feels like a dream now.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

And w the 96 storm, many of us had a follow up snowfall later that week before the big flooding. 

Yeah.   I recall that Fairfax had around 24" with the 1st round and about 12" a few days later.   Having close to 3 feet was definitely memorable, and I remember the flooding as well.  Couldn't even get anywhere around the beltway.

 Jan 2016 was the biggest snowfall I've seen from one storm.  I had 30" at my house.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...