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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

Who's starting the thread? :ph34r:

No one. Until Thursday at least. 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

My baseline is 6" - 10" for this event. If we get somewhere in there, cool. Anything more is gravy. The past 4 years have been poo and having it fall on a weekend would be great.

If we're taking the Icon's snowfall duration into consideration.. are you talking about this weekend or the weekend after that?

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2 minutes ago, Interstate said:

The one thing I did not like was at hour 96 on the H5, the pesky TPV showed up again... that is what pushed everything south... We have played this game before.

but the run ended up fine... so...

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So 12z Recap and please correct me if I'm wrong about any of these

GFS/GEFS: light/decent 

Para: good

CMC/GEPS: decent

UK: decent

Euro/EPS: ridiculous

Icon: very good

JMA: good

Navgem: good

 

Am I missing anything?  I'll tell you what, I'm glad it's not the GEFS/EPS reversed.  The GEFS was holding on to the Thursday storm long after the EPS said it was going to the Carolinas.  

 

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Just missing your old avatar...I miss the weather weenie superhero.

 

My mistake, that might be DD Weatherman or something of that ilk.  

 

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9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

So 12z Recap and please correct me if I'm wrong about any of these

GFS/GEFS: light/decent 

Para: good

CMC/GEPS: decent

UK: decent

Euro/EPS: ridiculous

Icon: very good

JMA: good

Navgem: good

 

Am I missing anything?  I'll tell you what, I'm glad it's not the GEFS/EPS reversed.  The GEFS was holding on to the Thursday storm long after the EPS said it was going to the Carolinas.  

 

The UK would have been very good IMO. Only out to 144. There was a lot of meat left on that bone. 

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

The UK would have been very good IMO. Only out to 144. There was a lot of meat left on that bone. 

8767e2dad3d991f939f4bba0ea05799f.png

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I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. 

So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight. 

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1 minute ago, Steve25 said:

I've noticed a bit of a trend this winter, that there have been some insane model results from 6-7 days away, people have gotten really hyped up, and then around day 5 the models tend to get a much more realistic grasp on things, then within 5 days the more fine details are worked out. It's taught me not to buy in to any solutions at all until the height of the storm is within 120 hours on the models. 

So, if the models are still on board for a decent snowstorm of any variety come tomorrow's 12z suite, I'll jump on the train. Until then, I wish you all the best. Hoping there's no crumble overnight. 

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

You just noticed this trend this winter only? In all seriousness that is how the models generally work every year. Outlandish solutions possible at long leads, slowly figuring out the details as we get closer and then fine tuning closer in. That's not a unique thing to this year. 

Also remember all of the bitching and moaning about no model showing blue over us...that didn't really change until about the 19th or 20th of this month :ph34r:

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3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Bastardi is all-in.  He invoked 1996 and 1978.  

Is there a time where hes NOT all-in? lol...Looks good so long as the block pushes this thing just underneath of us and then off the VA capes...but we've been Charlie Browned too much already

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1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Don’t leave the area, have pushed my chips in, am flying in from K.C. 

You're flying out for high cirus clouds? That is some dedication! 

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Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said:

You're flying out for high cirus clouds? That is some dedication! 

This one will work, my bad knee tells me so. If it doesn’t happen at least I can smoke some cigars and drink good scotch with my brother

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