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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch.

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Big change for Mooresville , NC (Lake Norman)! Now calling for 3-6 inches with the latest GSP forecast. Earlier it was an inch or so at most.

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm
Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory
will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.***

Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern
Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep
South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered
over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to
wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our
forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly
across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from
surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through
the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually
advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having
said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of
the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as
precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent
valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA
as wintry precip).

Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic,
and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the
lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more
than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air
should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in
fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer
to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally
agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border.
However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high
precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature"
indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a
mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able
to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the
potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but
a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been
consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly
strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does
a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance
does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/
southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is
minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum
forecast.

Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the
Piedmont and  I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale
banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone
matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast.
Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and
even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high
precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the
afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even
in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly
this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a
cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance.
Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall
rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont.

In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9
inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across
the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA.
Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills,
where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip
rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the
northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the
Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those
zones may see little to no accum.

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56 minutes ago, jburns said:

 Raleigh is conservative because that results in the highest number of correct forecasts in our area. Can’t blame them. It is the occasional big snow that finds them scrambling to catch up. In the several heavy snow events in my almost fifty years of living here the conversation goes like this.

Forecast: A trace to an inch of snow.

Me: We have 3“ so far.

Wife: Raleigh just upped the storm totals to 1-2”.

2 hours a later

Me: I just measured 4”

Wife” Raleigh has upped the storm total to 1-3”

4 hours later

Me: I just measured 8”.

Wife: Raleigh has upped the storm totals tp 2-4” with isolated areas up to 6”.

Rinse and repeat depending on just how big the storm is. Got 20” in 2004. 

The one big snow that i've been through was i think 2000 in Roxboro...i remember the forecasts going into the evening were calling for maybe an inch or two.  Then it started snowing...and it didn't stop snowing for 11 hours.  We ended up with over a foot and a half IIRC

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RAL hoists winter weather advisory now

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
336 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...Accumulating Wet Snow Likely Across the NC Piedmont Late
Tonight Through Early Friday night...

.An area of low pressure will strengthen while tracking up the
Southeast coast through Friday night. The low pressure and
associated moisture will interact with marginally cold high
pressure over the middle Atlantic states. Wet snow accumulations,
with surface temperatures near and just above freezing, will
result. Hazardous travel conditions may result.

NCZ007>010-023>026-040-041-073>076-081200-
/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0001.210108T0600Z-210109T0600Z/
Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Alamance-Orange-Durham-Franklin-
Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery-Moore-Lee-
Including the cities of Roxboro, Oxford, Creedmoor, Henderson,
Kittrell, Warrenton, Norlina, Burlington, Graham, Mebane,
Hillsborough, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Durham, Rougemont,
Louisburg, Franklinton, Siler City, Pittsboro, Raleigh, Cary,
Apex, Wake Forest, Knightdale, Albemarle, Troy, Southern Pines,
Pinehurst, Aberdeen, Carthage, and Sanford
336 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and rain will overspread the
  Advisory area late tonight through Friday morning, with a few
  hour period of all snow possible Friday morning. The
  precipitation will likely turn to a cold rain during the midday
  and afternoon hours, before changing back to snow Friday evening
  and early Friday night. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 2
  inches are expected, with lesser amounts --generally a coating
  to an inch-- along the southeast edge of the Advisory area.

* WHERE...The Piedmont and western Sandhills of central North
  Carolina.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact both the Friday morning and evening
  commutes.

 

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7 minutes ago, jburns said:

You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch.

And five minutes after I post that they issue a warning. Now I have to take my snow shovel into the bathroom.  I hate that.

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7 minutes ago, JoshWeather said:

The one big snow that i've been through was i think 2000 in Roxboro...i remember the forecasts going into the evening were calling for maybe an inch or two.  Then it started snowing...and it didn't stop snowing for 11 hours.  We ended up with over a foot and a half IIRC

It has a name........Carolina Crusher.  :ph34r:  Snuck in like a thief in the night.

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Just now, sarcean said:

I know it will be a heavy wet snow - what are the liquid to snowfall ratios expected?

Without a better cold air source, I'd go 5:1.  Chop QPF in half almost everywhere outside the mountains.

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Always exciting to be under the first winter weather headline of the year. Liking the trends today in the Raleigh area. Think my odds of getting the grass covered are north of 50% now 

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

1"-2"s now projected for Cary.  snow->rain->snow on back end

Im sticking close to the 1" mark for us here.  Unless we have a band set up over us

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

1"-2"s now projected for Cary.  snow->rain->snow on back end

Exactly what the Euro depicts. I didn’t think we’d start as snow but I guess that’s on the table now

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46 minutes ago, jburns said:

You have to love where I live right on the county line. If I sit in my den I’m under a winter storm warning but when I go to the bathroom not even a watch.

Lol. Randolph ? 

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Just now, Grayman said:

Lol. Randolph ? 

Yep, and before you say something, yes we do have indoor toilets.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

7:1

For you north of Danville, yes.  But in the central piedmont and as you move down towards CLT no.  Even the last guidance from RAH is calling for wet snow with surface temps just above freezing.

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3 minutes ago, jburns said:

Yep, and before you say something, yes we do have indoor toilets.

lol. I’m 50 miles south of you and no WWA or Winter storm warning. wWA 15 miles north of me. Good luck. I’m use to this lol

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Judging by radar the mountains in SC are going to get blasted in the next few hours.  Plenty cold through the column even down in to the upstate.  The warm nose doesn't show up until around 11pm tonight.  Could get to see some silver dollars rip this evening in the upstate even if it's too warm to stick at the surface, imo.

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