• Member Statistics

    16,652
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    mtroyalspa
    Newest Member
    mtroyalspa
    Joined
BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Grayman said:

Cliff driving weenie alert in 3 2 1 

Well, I wasn’t expecting anything but a cold rain anyways so no loss. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jwisephoto said:

I mean NC is still doing really well... 

I mean I don’t get it. Some guys post boom then 20 minutes later it’s over. Weird 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

It looks like an area between Nashville and Chattanooga is getting buried right now. They had no warnings up a few hours ago... wwa now.

 Buried? The highest reports I’ve seen are under 2”. It is falling a low elevations though. That surprised me. I figured it would only accumulate on the Cumberland Plateau. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Grayman said:

I mean I don’t get it. Some guys post boom then 20 minutes later it’s over. Weird 

Imperfect model guidance = irrational exhuberance.

Real time obs = crushed souls

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mean i was expecting the start in Hickory at about 1-2am.... and being done about 1-3pm... now some show snow til 10-11pm in my area... not much i can complain about right now in a nowcasting situation

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

WXII

453AFEFC-0F8B-407C-AAFA-7764F13FEBBA.jpeg

What?? This system has JUST STARTED PEOPLE! omg, relax and let the dynamics do their thing! It's going to be ok.

Her totals map sucks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

If you want snow East of the 85 corridor this evening you need that deform band to stay together with the passage of the ULL. Overnight modeling, aside from the HRRR, has basically lost that idea, and dissipates the band largely East of the Triad. The entire event hinges on that band so it will be a nail biter for sure. This first burst of snow ongoing is just going to be mood flakes 

Yeah this isn't looking good and we started the event a few degrees warmer than forecast.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

With the overnight models + radar and observations at our disposal this morning, I’m extremely skeptical anyone outside the foothills/mountains sees 2 inches. I’m now thinking this will be a coating-1 inch event at most across the state (East of Shelby to mount airy) and it will all be with the ULL low. Triad looks to be biggest bust but with observed temp profiles, radar, and mid level dry air persisting it does not appear that area of steady snow will occur before the ULL passage

Agreed and there is quite a dry slot rolling through as we speak. Look the lower level WV on College of Du Page.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/7/2021 at 9:30 AM, magpiemaniac said:

This is a friendly reminder that those of us east of I-77 are going to have to be really patient tomorrow.  There will be some cliff diving by lunchtime on Friday, but we will get something out of this by Friday night.  Just hang in there.

I’ll repeat this again.  Our best shot is this afternoon and evening.  I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can.  :P

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Triangle folks this is your only hope:
 

hrrr-nc-refc_ptype-0161200.png

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

so its possible this morning we weren't far enough west and this evening we won't be far enough east...lol

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, magpiemaniac said:

I’ll repeat this again.  Our best shot is this afternoon and evening.  I’m holding out hope for a light dusting on top of the garbage can.  :P

 

17 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

I agree, but the warning level snows were only going to verify if this front end produced in the triad area. Outside of that it’s been what occurs with the ULL passage and deform band all along, nothing has changed there. It will still snow from west to East this afternoon and I agree, there will be some surprises. But the triad is likely north of this feature if overnight and this morning’s modeling verify. These ULL scenarios are very tricky as they can be so localized. Someone will get 3 inches and the other side of the county sees white rain 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

I think for someone this is going to overperform as much as this morning disappointed. 

hrrr-raleigh-total_precip_inch-0179200.png

To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, davenc said:

What?? This system has JUST STARTED PEOPLE! omg, relax and let the dynamics do their thing! It's going to be ok.

Her totals map sucks!

This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.