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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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1 minute ago, griteater said:

12z Euro

USQOB6Y.gif

Looks like a push of better moisture further north, thus the “warmer” look to it.

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All the models are basically coalescing around the same idea now. For C/ENC, the key is going to be that deform late afternoon/evening and where the banding and rates set up.

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Greetings to my SE friends -- I'll be rooting hard down here in the panhandle for every one to hit the jackpot.

I must say, though, I would exercise caution on this one for a couple of reasons:

1) this ULL is not very strong and thus will not necessarily drive high QPF rates which means ...

2) Boundary layer issues will be real -- the latest Euro run, for example, never gets it below 36 in my old stomping grounds of Shelby -- even during the highest times of precip. That's no bueno. 

If I were in the mountains/northern foothills of western N.C., I'd feel good about this and with ULLs you just never really know what's going to happen in more marginal areas. But it looks very very borderline for the I-85 corridor. 

That won't stop me for wishing for a Hail Mary though!

Good luck!

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3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

Greetings to my SE friends -- I'll be rooting hard down here in the panhandle for every one to hit the jackpot.

I must say, though, I would exercise caution on this one for a couple of reasons:

1) this ULL is not very strong and thus will not necessarily drive high QPF rates which means ...

2) Boundary layer issues will be real -- the latest Euro run, for example, never gets it below 36 in my old stomping grounds of Shelby -- even during the highest times of precip. That's no bueno. 

If I were in the mountains/northern foothills of western N.C., I'd feel good about this and with ULLs you just never really know what's going to happen in more marginal areas. But it looks very very borderline for the I-85 corridor. 

That won't stop me for wishing for a Hail Mary though!

Good luck!

Thanks man!  We are living on the edge as usual!

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1 minute ago, BullCityWx said:

Euro FINALLY joins the party. 

Is it a good party, or am I going to end up passed out in a corner next to the keg?  Seriously though, this is going to be epic for some and a blank for others.  Does this set the stage for better things down the road?

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36 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

All the models are basically coalescing around the same idea now. For C/ENC, the key is going to be that deform late afternoon/evening and where the banding and rates set up.

At least for my purposes, I like how I've seen the banding seem to setup shop across Alamance/Orange/Northern Half Durham/Person. 

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Here is the official forecast from RAH for my point and click location 12 miles south of Greensboro...  They are just not sold on this thing at all. 

 

image.png.e3641058fd171fc96c3148f1a7cf0151.png

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

Here is the official forecast from RAH for my point and click location 12 miles south of Greensboro...  They are just not sold on this thing at all. 

 

image.png.e3641058fd171fc96c3148f1a7cf0151.png

That’s pretty conservative, even for RAH lol

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^ Six-ten inches of snow for Hickory?  I hope DT is correct, but I'm not banking on that.

I don’t think he’s ever got a map right for anyone south of VA. He’s made some hideous maps like this in the past where he’s always wayyyy to bullish.
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29 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

Euro FINALLY joins the party. 

It’s been a pretty miserable performance for the Euro which had most of NC bone dry yesterday. Shifting the precip 150 miles north inside of the last 48 hours is not ideal.

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51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That’s pretty conservative, even for RAH lol

 Raleigh is conservative because that results in the highest number of correct forecasts in our area. Can’t blame them. It is the occasional big snow that finds them scrambling to catch up. In the several heavy snow events in my almost fifty years of living here the conversation goes like this.

Forecast: A trace to an inch of snow.

Me: We have 3“ so far.

Wife: Raleigh just upped the storm totals to 1-2”.

2 hours a later

Me: I just measured 4”

Wife” Raleigh has upped the storm total to 1-3”

4 hours later

Me: I just measured 8”.

Wife: Raleigh has upped the storm totals tp 2-4” with isolated areas up to 6”.

Rinse and repeat depending on just how big the storm is. Got 20” in 2004. 

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6 minutes ago, CentralNC said:

GSP pretty bullish in afternoon disco for mtns, foothills and NW piedmont

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
227 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A moist storm system arrives from the west this evening and passes
to the east on Friday. Widespread wintry weather will be possible
with this system, with the best chances and most significant
accumulations over the mountains and foothills. Canadian high
pressure returns to the region over the weekend. Another low
pressure system is likely to affect the area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 pm: ***The Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a
Warning for Catawba-NC, Iredell-NC, and Davie-NC. A Winter Storm
Warning will also be issued for Rowan-NC. A Winter Weather Advisory
will be issued for a tier of forecast zones south of the Warning.***

Latest WV imagery reveals upper cyclone centered over northern
Miss., with strongly diffluent flow downstream over much of the Deep
South and the TN Valley. As the short wave ridge currently centered
over the forecast area shifts east, and the upper low continues to
wobble east, forcing and moisture will increase rapidly across our
forecast area this evening, with precip chances ramping up quickly
across western areas through midnight. Surface ridge extending from
surface anticyclone over Ontario will spill into the area through
the period, resulting in increasing low level NE flow and gradually
advecting lower wet bulb temp air into the forecast area. Having
said that, wet bulb temps are already around freezing across much of
the NC mtns, and those areas are poised to see primarily snow as
precip develops this evening. (The Little TN Valley and adjacent
valleys are warmer as usual, and will likely see almost as much RA
as wintry precip).

Locations east of the mountains will, as usual be more problematic,
and will (also as usual) depend upon temperature trends in the
lowest 1000` or so. While all locations east of the mtns will more
than likely start out with rain, advection of the lower wet bulb air
should support a transition to snow along and north of I-40, and in
fact, precip should be more frozen than not in those areas. Closer
to the I-85 corridor, things get a lot trickier. Guidance generally
agrees that mostly rain will be seen closer to the NC/SC border.
However, periods of stronger synoptic forcing will support high
precip rates at times tonight (classic "cross-hair signature"
indicated in model cross sections), and this may force periods of a
mix with or transition to SN, although how much that would be able
to accumulate is debatable. Another source of uncertainty is the
potential for a narrow band of mixed precip, most likely sleet, but
a brief period of FZRA can`t be ruled out, as the NAM has been
consistent in developing a warm nose, albeit not a particularly
strong one near the NC/SC border tonight. Since the NAM usually does
a good job in capturing these features, even when other guidance
does not, we continue to forecast a region of sleet from the GA/SC/
southern NC mtns into the Piedmont. Forecast accumulation is
minimal, but this does create another pitfall for the snow accum
forecast.

Of greater concern for areas east of the mtns, and especially the
Piedmont and  I-77 corridor, will be the potential for mesoscale
banding during the daylight hours Friday, as deformation zone
matures in response to cyclone deepening off the coast.
Convection-allowing models, especially those that are NAM-based and
even the operational NAM itself depict potential for locally high
precip rates, esp across the Piedmont from late morning into the
afternoon, possibly resulting in quickly accumulating snowfall, even
in areas outside the warning. Of course, predicting where exactly
this will (or if it will) set up is akin to predicting where a
cluster of thunderstorms will develop 24 hours in advance.
Nevertheless, the potential exists for locally intense snowfall
rates tomorrow, especially across the Piedmont.

In terms of amounts: storm totals are forecast to range from 5 to 9
inches across the NC mtns, except more in the 1-3 inch range across
the valleys of far southwest NC and over much of Rabun County GA.
Four to six inches are expected across the northern NC foothills,
where a developing stout easterly flow is expected to enhance precip
rates tonight, while 2-4 inches are generally forecast for the
northwest NC Piedmont. General 1-2 inch amounts are forecast in the
Advisory areas detailed above, although the southern part of those
zones may see little to no accum.

 

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8 minutes ago, MOD said:

1/7/2021 18z HRRR Kuchera

image.png.4556132157c78104275351cc5c8e55b9.png

Just slide that whole purpleish blob about 30miles east and I'd been in one heck of a dropzone.

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2 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Just slide that whole purpleish blob about 30miles east and I'd been in one heck of a dropzone.

Randolph county does well also . It’s south of GSO

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RAH is likely going with "Warnings for Triad Counties, and also either expand the warning or issue advisories eastward across at least Stanly, Montgomery, Randolph, Alamance and Person counties."    

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5 hours ago, Disc said:

I still think the precip will be more expansive into Virginia than what the NAM/3k NAM models are showing. I've clicked thorough just about all other hi-res guidance and it does not have that sharp northern cutoff. I'll be very surprised if it indeed shuts off right at the VA/NC border.  

And just like that, the 18z NAM catches on for Virginia. 

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5 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

@Disc do you see Danville being upgraded from the advisory to a warning? Just curious.

From what I've seen, boundary layer temps are very marginal. It's gonna be hard to overcome those further east, especially since the heaviest is falling during the middle of the day. Ratios also very low.. this is less than 10:1. Confidence is rather low that you meet or exceed 4" (12hr snow warning criteria) in Danville right now. If this was a colder airmass, I think a warning criteria snow would be a slam dunk with this.

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I guess one nice thing about being In Cabarrus County is the element of surprise. I have no doubt I'll see some accumulating snow. 26 was the low last night. And its 45 now. As far as how many inches goes, I've learned not to worry about it... too much..lol.. We get what we get... 

  The winter is still young as most of our big snows fall from middle February to Middle March! This is all an unexpected treat for mby!!

  Best of luck weenies!!

POST PICTURES AND LOCATION PLEASE!!

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RAH going 2-4 for Forsyth which sounds pretty safe at this distance

NCZ021-080900-
Forsyth-
Including the city of Winston-Salem
317 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Snow with a chance of rain after midnight. Snow
accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Cooler.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to
10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with snow with a chance of rain in the
evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of snow after midnight.
Little or no additional snow accumulation. Cold with lows in the
upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the mid 40s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear, cold with lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 40s.
Lows in the mid 20s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent
chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper
20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

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