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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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2 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

I tend to agree. It’s not like we have some mammoth 1046 HP up in Upstate NY. I will just continue to pray the Canadian and the Para GFS are correct. Wouldn’t want to be @Disc in this predicament. Anywhere from dusting to 6” here ouch lol. NC mountains almost a lock to get smoked!

Forecasting this has been a nightmare.

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Turned on the news... Had to head back to the storm page, quickly. Good lord. 
 

I haven’t seen any significant changes in overall modeling and this system looks on track. It will be a foothills, eastern slopes jackpot. Outside of there will be rate dependent and pretty much anyone along from Salisbury to Raleigh could see a C-2” snow but it will be localized and difficult to pin down. Most will not have accumulation. Triad and southern VA will have 1-3” maybe a few 4” totals if banding sets up. Better timing, ULL support, and more widespread snow. It will be more patchy East 

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If Blacksburg is saying it was going to snow 4-5" but only accumulate 2" I could believe their map.  But not much I've seen today indicates only 2" from Wilkesboro to Mount Airy to Martinsville.  They can always increase tomorrow after another round of model runs I suppose.

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

If Blacksburg is saying it was going to snow 4-5" but only accumulate 2" I could believe their map.  But not much I've seen today indicates only 2" from Wilkesboro to Mount Airy to Martinsville.  They can always increase tomorrow after another round of model runs I suppose.

Agreed QPF should be fine even with low ratios we should see heavy snow falling in the deform band for sure

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8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

If Blacksburg is saying it was going to snow 4-5" but only accumulate 2" I could believe their map.  But not much I've seen today indicates only 2" from Wilkesboro to Mount Airy to Martinsville.  They can always increase tomorrow after another round of model runs I suppose.

We'll fine tune totals. This was a significant adjustment up from what we had. There's a myriad of guidance we view that is not available publicly. 

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Just now, Disc said:

A look at higher end amounts too.

 

SnowAmt90Prcntl.thumb.png.07156b0b04c10db79efe06b82d89894d.png

Thanks for posting this and the explanation.  This looks more reasonable to me from what my non-red tag eyes are seeing.  But I don't get paid for this....except to plow other people's driveways.  :snowing:

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Folks along and north of I-40 are sitting good right now. Mountains/foothills are gonna get a really good snow. VA/NC border should do really well too. Much uncertainty on the northern extend of the precip shield, but as climo suggest with such a track, areas even further north into VA will do well.

I see the 18z GFS is finally playing catch up too and showing snow into VA. Models will continue to adjust and I would not be surprised to see continued slight north trends for the next 24hrs. I have a hunch our snow totals will be going up overnight, but I will leave that to the overnight shift to decide and I can't 100% speak on behalf of them.

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7 minutes ago, Disc said:

Folks north of I-40 are sitting good right now. Mountains/foothills are gonna get a really good snow. VA/NC border should do really well too. Much uncertainty on the northern extend of the precip shield, but as climo suggest with such a track, areas even further north into VA will do well.

I see the 18z GFS is finally playing catch up too and showing snow into VA. Models will continue to adjust and I would not be surprised to see continued slight north trends for the next 24hrs. I have a hunch our snow totals will be going up overnight, but I will leave that to the overnight shift to decide and I can't 100% speak on behalf of them.

Thanks for dropping by Disc!  Can you give any insights on the areas further east in NC toward the Triangle?

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18z gfs v16 snowfall amounts seems slightly east of NAM and euro consensus, doesn’t target mountains as much . We won’t see 10:1 ratios but map gives idea of QPF instead of actual ground truth accumulation. 

B30CC4A5-EF14-440D-9E24-838CC3567A09.jpeg

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21 minutes ago, Disc said:

Folks along and north of I-40 are sitting good right now. Mountains/foothills are gonna get a really good snow. VA/NC border should do really well too. Much uncertainty on the northern extend of the precip shield, but as climo suggest with such a track, areas even further north into VA will do well.

I see the 18z GFS is finally playing catch up too and showing snow into VA. Models will continue to adjust and I would not be surprised to see continued slight north trends for the next 24hrs. I have a hunch our snow totals will be going up overnight, but I will leave that to the overnight shift to decide and I can't 100% speak on behalf of them.

Thanks for dropping in to explain your thinking on this Disc! Regardless of what happens with this one it's exciting to have an active winter pattern for a change. 

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47 minutes ago, SouthWake33 said:

Thanks for dropping by Disc!  Can you give any insights on the areas further east in NC toward the Triangle?

I honestly haven't really looked further east into NC. I do think you all have rain first or slight mix and may change to snow as the low pulls off the coast. Snow amounts? Not sure. High end snow map from NWS Raleigh has you all pushing an inch or so. Boundary layer is quite marginal and at the moment you're more in the position for a "white rain" scenario. 

1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

When will be yalls next update to this?

Full forecast package update will be 1am-4am. 

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3 minutes ago, Disc said:

I honestly haven't really looked further east into NC. I do think you all have rain first or slight mix and may change to snow as the low pulls off the coast. Snow amounts? Not sure. High end snow map from NWS Raleigh has you all pushing an inch or so. Boundary layer is quite marginal and at the moment you're more in the position for a "white rain" scenario. 

Full forecast package update will be 1am-4am. 

Do you think this is trending in the direction that may get areas 20 mikes SW of Richmond involved?

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1 hour ago, Disc said:

Folks along and north of I-40 are sitting good right now. Mountains/foothills are gonna get a really good snow. VA/NC border should do really well too. Much uncertainty on the northern extend of the precip shield, but as climo suggest with such a track, areas even further north into VA will do well.

I see the 18z GFS is finally playing catch up too and showing snow into VA. Models will continue to adjust and I would not be surprised to see continued slight north trends for the next 24hrs. I have a hunch our snow totals will be going up overnight, but I will leave that to the overnight shift to decide and I can't 100% speak on behalf of them.

For once I actually really like the looks of the short range hi res models for this one. 3k nam and rgem look to be painting a best case scenario at least 40 north and then possibly being able to get north of 460 in play. Gfs also playing catch up. Canadian has been the best thus far for our direct area. Wasn’t overly thrilled with this at the beginning but nice to see it may be trending in the right direction for a lot of us on here.

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18z gfs v16 snowfall amounts seems slightly east of NAM and euro consensus, doesn’t target mountains as much . We won’t see 10:1 ratios but map gives idea of QPF instead of actual ground truth accumulation. 
B30CC4A5-EF14-440D-9E24-838CC3567A09.thumb.jpeg.1644468e61214dba301732b2f8cffa4c.jpeg

Wow! What a change from the GFS. It has finally joined virtually all other modeling. Goes to show the GFS might be one of the worst models right now, if the consensus is to be believed.
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One thing about this setup 

It will run SE to NW. NW to SE flow.

The angle.  Should provide a SE to NW flow. East side upslope hella dry slot followed by cold.

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6 minutes ago, landof2rivers said:

FLweather, where do you see the dry slot forming? 

The usual lines.

85 and 40 east. North of there should be good. 

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