BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

After that last NAM run somebody will be posting the ground temp maps in 3..2..1..:P

Liking my chances either in the Triad or in Stuart, VA.  But I've been waiting to capture some snow drone footage and also wanting to film around Lover's Leap over towards Hillsville.  This could be the best of both worlds so I may be mobile come Friday morning.  

We look forward to your updates!

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7 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I think the timing shift to later in the day has certainly hurt things, specifically BL temps. That is impacting accums.

I’ll be honest: 

 

I like the timing on the NAM. If it’s right, there’s zero diurnal heating. It’s snowing by 7AM and only picks up in intensity.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

The GFS issues is as much about lack of heavy precip as it is temperature

You nailed it. When we see lighter precip, we see less frozen. When we see heavier QPF depicted, the column is colder.

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4 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

It’s snowing by 7AM and only picks up in intensity.

Yes any time before sun rise the better in this case. 

 

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Also thinking about this system: 

if we’re thinking this system is dynamic and have banding, the NAM is clearly designed to pick that up better than the GFS. 

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Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

EE rule in effect? Asking for a friend :ph34r: :P 

You went old school on us! LOL!

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Recent SREF plumes for KHKY.  I removed the highest three (each above 7 inches) and the lowest three outputs (each below 1 inch).  That results in a mean of 4.17 inches for KHKY.  Cut that in half, and two inches or so sounds about right for my locale, I would think.  Let's see how it goes:

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c JsC6DsW.jpg

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Here's the most recent meteogram for KHKY adjusted for 6:1 snow ratios (rather than the default 11:1).  Based on this site, two inches or so also appears to be a good blend of the other models for my location.

3wDBW7G.jpg

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15 minutes ago, rduwx said:

You went old school on us! LOL!

I aint gonna believe it until the NGM and RUC buys in. 

The NGM was how I knew the February 2004 storm was legit. It had an 8 in the snow column in MOS and it NEVER had an 8. 

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I wanted to dig in deeper IMBY for the 12z NAM. Looks like we're all snow until hour 63 when some IP mixes in. F5wx.com is giving me a roughly 6:1 ratio with 1.45 QPF. That's still 9" with a 6:1 ratio. Not sure that I buy that solution but it's fun to ponder. 

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TWC veryyy bullish on amounts in NW NC and SW VA... I feel it would be a sin to post the map, but they have a large swath of 3-5” along and north of i40 (including the entire triad) and a band 1-3” roughly between i85 and i40. They sure have a way of over-hyping a storm at this range...

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6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Local Triad tv Mets seem suddenly bullish today 

Van Denton and Matthew East are my go-to tv mets.  (Lordy, I miss East in the Triad. :cry: We were robbed.)  Van loves snow, but he’s not a homer.  When he jumps on board, I listen.

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