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Stormlover74

January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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23 hours ago, bluewave said:

Only the 4th time that NYC didn’t drop below 20° by mid-January.

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 15
Missing Count
1 2013-01-15 22 0
2 2021-01-15 20 1
- 2002-01-15 20 0
- 1932-01-15 20 0

NYC will extend the above 20° streak for at least another week as temperatures still average above normal for mid to late January.

 

KNYC   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   1/16/2021  0000 UTC                       
 FHR  24| 36  48| 60  72| 84  96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192      
 SAT  16| SUN 17| MON 18| TUE 19| WED 20| THU 21| FRI 22| SAT 23 CLIMO
 X/N  52| 35  46| 35  46| 32  42| 26  35| 29  42| 31  37| 24  33 24 38

 

 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Heaviest rainstorm for portions of the South Shore since December 5th.

 

1/16/2021   7:00 AM   NY-NS-46   Massapequa Park 1.2 N    1.35       NA   |     NA        NA   |    NA    NY Nassau  

Looks like nothing but screaming fast zonal flow right through 1/31 on all models. -PNA/RNA, nothing to slow it down and turn it meridional. Everything gets shredded and suppressed 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We will be in -PNA suppression mode until the trough can pull back off the West Coast. 

A61057EF-094B-40B1-B1DB-49C245C376BD.thumb.gif.1637c39605c37a5b0b2ac5a374e7898f.gif


9924E48A-9842-4294-B144-5C0A91F77528.thumb.png.712a4802a4322a524921a19d3a0ed616.png

^The other thing we haven’t been able to do in several years is sustain a -EPO

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Morning thoughts...

Today will be mostly cloudy and still mild. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 49°

Philadelphia: 48°

Somewhat cooler air will arrive for tomorrow and Monday.

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39 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^The other thing we haven’t been able to do in several years is sustain a -EPO

The models do sustain a negative epo. This is why we can't get a storm up here.

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47 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Winter is done. Those who called it in December were correct. Can’t break the back of the Pacific flow. 

I think we can still salvage some ice skating and fishing weather, even if things don't look snowy for the foreseeable future. Winter isn't all about snow.

And all it really takes is about an inch of powder to completely change the wintry feel.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We will be in -PNA suppression mode until the trough can pull back off the West Coast. 

A61057EF-094B-40B1-B1DB-49C245C376BD.thumb.gif.1637c39605c37a5b0b2ac5a374e7898f.gif


9924E48A-9842-4294-B144-5C0A91F77528.thumb.png.712a4802a4322a524921a19d3a0ed616.png

What I find ironic is the sustained negative NAO is hurting us here. The negative PNA works great if we were to get a storm to eject while the NAO trends positive. It would get warm after the storm but we would get a heavy snow event nonetheless. I guess what would be called a pattern changing storm.

I guess this is why our best winter's are when the NAO is volatile rather than sustained.

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1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said:

Winter is done. Those who called it in December were correct. Can’t break the back of the Pacific flow. 

I feel like the winter is failing for the incorrectly predicted reasons.

I do not think anyone predicted "too much blocking" as the reason for lack of snow (apologies if anyone actually did).

Also, I do not personally believe daily 39 to 45 degree highs are a TORCH. 2011/2012 with daily highs 50 to 65 is a torch IMO. Above average yes torch no. If this year is a torch, would Feb 2018 be an inferno? I know someone is gonna reply with (is +3 not a TORCH!). No imo it's not.

Believe me, if we had the right storm track we definitely would not have been shut out for the month. Our main issue is lack of precip/chances. Not saying would have been an epic month, rather anywhere from 1 to 10 inches could have fallen across the region so far. Hell, we had a TRUE torch in FEB 2018 and still managed a snowstorm. Same with Jan 2012. Those torches put is month to shame and it still snowed. We had enough precip chances and good timing. This year it's dry.

Now, the weeklies, if to be believed, keeps blocking straight through February. This is believable since the pv is taking another hit and blocking can sustain for up to 5 weeks following. However, this renewed blocking may just keep us cold and dry. 

I welcome the negative PNA. Positive PNA did nothing for us so let's see if the negative PNA helps. 

 

 

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The cold could be pretty prolonged once it gets here. 

-EPO will deliver the cold and blocking stays put. I don't trust models breaking down EPO so quickly given the PV will continue to be attacked into early Feb. 

February will look substantially different this winter than last couple years and yes eventually we will score. February is the snowiest month for a reason.

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48 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I feel like the winter is failing for the incorrectly predicted reasons.

I do not think anyone predicted "too much blocking" as the reason for lack of snow (apologies if anyone actually did).

Also, I do not personally believe daily 39 to 45 degree highs are a TORCH. 2011/2012 with daily highs 50 to 65 is a torch IMO. Above average yes torch no. If this year is a torch, would Feb 2018 be an inferno? I know someone is gonna reply with (is +3 not a TORCH!). No imo it's not.

Believe me, if we had the right storm track we definitely would not have been shut out for the month. Our main issue is lack of precip/chances. Not saying would have been an epic month, rather anywhere from 1 to 10 inches could have fallen across the region so far. Hell, we had a TRUE torch in FEB 2018 and still managed a snowstorm. Same with Jan 2012. Those torches put is month to shame and it still snowed. We had enough precip chances and good timing. This year it's dry.

Now, the weeklies, if to be believed, keeps blocking straight through February. This is believable since the pv is taking another hit and blocking can sustain for up to 5 weeks following. However, this renewed blocking may just keep us cold and dry. 

I welcome the negative PNA. Positive PNA did nothing for us so let's see if the negative PNA helps. 

 

 

Thank you! I genuinely don't understand the physics and math behind everything, but I feel like I do understand the sociology and psychology behind these feelings. I think we have a combination of recency bias (it's snowed a lot to the relative norm over the past 27 years), along with the psychology of 20 degree mornings and 40 degree days in January with clouds and sun while no precipitation means a torch. It doesn't. It's just dry, and we often forget that winter is not just about snow, though that's what our tactile and visionary sense tells us.

It's also a good reminder of two other things: 1. Drought is usually the most underreported/unfelt weather phenomenon when it begins, since it's a slow burn (though we're just in a dry spell); 2. With so many forecasting tools available to us now, we anticipate things that often never materialize, and are thusly disappointed. (The big storm is always just ten days away!)

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Root for that -PNA trough to back off the West Coast with a nice Rockies Ridge.

F62DF253-5C7C-43C2-9498-3676C682E343.thumb.png.1172b178bd333120b726159ec007dc94.png

 

Nice signal even if its warm for our area this far out.

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11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

how did you feel about the October snowstorm lol

I like events like that that are truly historic but the damage it did was crazy. I was in CT for that one. But in talking more of the nuisance snows. Big storms are always fun. But I would much rather be bundled up with snow right now then walking in a lighter jacket with wet and warm conditions today. I absolutely hate this type of weather. 

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16 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Big storm on the 26th. Put it on your calendars. Only 10 days away.:)

If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol

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22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

If only it wasn’t the GFS showing it lol

12z CMC showing something similar

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

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3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12z CMC showing something similar

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_39.png

Saw the CMC. If the Para GFS and Euro show something similar I’ll get interested. I completely disregard anything the regular GFS shows. It’s literally the worst model there is. The ICON is better

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12Z GFSv16 showing late month potential - you would think if there was a true block that storm trying to plow into it through the GL would redevelop along the coast so we go from suppressed to cutters overnight - questionable at best

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Indeed....I intensely hated that 89-90 winter more than any other winter because of that brutal dry and cold weather that lasted for a month.  I think we also had a big bust in that month that was supposed to deliver 8 inches of snow and it ended up being rain lol.  Rain and thunder!  That was after the Feb 1989 bust which dropped 20 inches in ACY and nothing here, just hours of virga.  And then my mom passed away in June 1990 so she never got to experience the big snow winters :( and she loved to walk outside during snowstorms!

I wonder if there's any way to remodel those big busts with the same data from back then but run them on today's models to see if they'd be busts today too?

 

 

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Indeed....I intensely hated that 89-90 winter more than any other winter because of that brutal dry and cold weather that lasted for a month.  I think we also had a big bust in that month that was supposed to deliver 8 inches of snow and it ended up being rain lol.  Rain and thunder!  That was after the Feb 1989 bust which dropped 20 inches in ACY and nothing here, just hours of virga.  And then my mom passed away in June 1990 so she never got to experience the big snow winters :( and she loved to walk outside during snowstorms!

I wonder if there's any way to remodel those big busts with the same data from back then but run them on today's models to see if they'd be busts today too?

 

Great question!  I wonder the same all the time.  If that was today, would it be the situation we often see now where the snowfall maps and forecasts on TV don't reflect the latest models, and everyone on boards like this knows it is game over before everyone else?  Likewise,  I do remember the morning of the Blizzard of '83 the grownups in the morning including my schoolteacher saying 2-5" and we almost had that by dismissal..

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3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

 

Great question!  I wonder the same all the time.  If that was today, would it be the situation we often see now where the snowfall maps and forecasts on TV don't reflect the latest models, and everyone on boards like this knows it is game over before everyone else?  Likewise,  I do remember the morning of the Blizzard of '83 the grownups in the morning including my schoolteacher saying 2-5" and we almost had that by dismissal..

nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard  starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....

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1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

nowadays they would have cancelled school the night before or had early dismissal in anticipation of the predicted Blizzard  starting during the day - way back then they didn't do that....

I had an early dismissal but lived down in Jackson at the time. I believe it started snowing around 10am

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I like the conversation and my only thought with the 26th,  watch the 22nd.  For those who wish NIL for the 22nd.. root for the 12z/16 GEFS to back off a bit on qpf and for UKMET to not have developed some sort of short wave in the Ohio Valley to join with the northern tier ese driver.  We'll have to count on this being one of the UKMET'S spurious wrong off by 300 miles on  qpf axis operational cycles.  It does this kind of thing...am saving the UK for qpf for 12/22 night/23 AM for a future compare. 

I'll be away from the computer for awhile after 1P. 

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Just now, wdrag said:

I like the conversation and my only thought with the 26th,  watch the 22nd.  For those who wish NIL for the 22nd.. root for the 12z/16 GEFS to back off a bit on qpf and for UKMET to not have developed some sort of short wave in the Ohio Valley to join with the northern tier ese driver.  We'll have to count on this being one of the UKMET'S spurious wrong off by 300 miles on  qpf axis operational cycles.  It does this kind of thing...am saving the UK for qpf for 12/22 night/23 AM for a future compare. 

I'll be away from the computer for awhile after 1P. 

Isn't it suspicious that we go from suppressed to a cutter so fast - and shouldn't that storm cutting through the GL be forced to redevelop along the coast south of us if there was any true blocking go on ?

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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