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Stormlover74

January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

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I edited the 1/1 event about 20 minutes after posting. The change: I'll begin a new topic for 1/3 late today if its still modeled by the GFS para and EC but prefer GGEM on board.That one would be very low confidence for what could be a grazing fast developing nor'easter w snow somewhere close to NYC??? Again low confidence but on recent GFS parallel and EC OP. My energy is focused on 1/1 since ensembles are not very enthusiastic for land impact on 1/3.

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I edited the 1/1 event about 20 minutes after posting. The change: I'll begin a new topic for 1/3 late today if its still modeled by the GFS para and EC but prefer GGEM on board.That one would be very low confidence for what could be a grazing fast developing nor'easter w snow somewhere close to NYC??? Again low confidence but on recent GFS parallel and EC OP. My energy is focused on 1/1 since ensembles are not very enthusiastic for land impact on 1/3.

as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately  forecast ??

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

as long as the EURO OP is showing this ( 2 runs in a row now) its worth tracking IMO. - but like you said needs other reliable model support. These one storm right after another are difficult for the models to accurately  forecast ??

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

 

Yes I agree...  BUT, i don't want to overdo the topics.  I saw a complaint on New England about 1/3 added into 1/1.  So I admitted guilt and separated it.  The 06z GFSV16 has lost it for 1/3.  I need the GGEM on board, then I'll go with it. I'm offline from 9A to possibly 1 or 2P...so you all will be on top of everything.

I am concerned about folks believing the V16 so much.  I myself want the V16 to improve it's BL temperature profiles so it handles icing and snow better.  Any other improvements will be gravy, for me.  NCEP knows the stats.  I don't. V16 will be coming, almost no matter what but I'm not enthusiastic yet.  It's been all over the place on 1/1 qpf wise and seems the same on 1/3.  I need stability in models, which means they need to handle sensitivities better, just y opinion. Will watch for other modeling to join forces for 1/3. Right now, I have to lay low. Thanks for your thoughts. (am also not an all out EC guy, but much more so than GFS V16-it is the overall best with GFS then GGEM not too far  behind-losing faith almost daily in UK)

 

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The timing is right for a coastal system around the 4th. Each -AO drop going back to early December has featured one. The first was on December 5th and the 2nd on the 16th. But we need the closing off of the upper low and storm separation following the New Years storm to work out. As Walt mentioned , the spacing issues could result in a scraper track if the New Years storm suppresses it. Exact storm tracks for the models are a challenge beyond 3-5 days. We just saw how the whole evolution of the New Years storm changed several days ago.


4207D84F-2D22-4149-8342-490681E2B9C6.thumb.gif.816641cfb31c8ebdd807862a66b5032c.gif

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The timing is right for a coastal system around the 4th. Each -AO drop going back to early December has featured one. The first was on December 5th and the 2nd on the 16th. But we need the closing off of the upper low and storm separation following the New Years storm to work out. As Walt mentioned , the spacing issues could result in a scraper track if the New Years storm suppresses it. Exact storm tracks for the models are a challenge beyond 3-5 days. We just saw how the whole evolution of the New Years storm changed several days ago.


4207D84F-2D22-4149-8342-490681E2B9C6.thumb.gif.816641cfb31c8ebdd807862a66b5032c.gif

Once the EPO turns favorable, things will start to get very interesting  .

 

Keep on watching the storm for next week 

 

20201229_093336.jpg

20201229_093326.jpg

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43 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Once the EPO turns favorable, things will start to get very interesting  .

 

Keep on watching the storm for next week 

 

 

Maybe such an extreme North Pacific storm in early January means that we are nearing the peak of this +EPO cycle. If this is the case, then we would get some improvement on the Pacific side by mid-January. That could be what the weeklies are trying to show.

 

 

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12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

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15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS still not showing the storm for early next week organizing and moving up the coast still about 5 days out though - that previous system is suppressing it on this model

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png

Wouldn't it be rain anyway with no cold air around?

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yep 60s and rain. Get out your canoe 

not according to the 0Z Euro - like i mentioned earlier only reason I am tracking it is the Euro keeps showing it

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12Z unreliable 16V GFS is similar to the GFS OP the storm doesn't have enough room to develop so moves east waiting on the Canadian to finish running

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is very amped

Rain on the coast and snow inland 

 

 

it is kind of odd that the previous storm did not have any cold air to tap and send our way just in time - BUT the 0Z Euro showed just cold enough air here for a changeover - this amped CMC is a good signal along with the AO plunging   and increases our chances and hopefully the storm can get hold of just cold enough air for a changeover - waiting on the 12Z Euro and the ensembles of GFS

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the Ukie is also on board for next week . Looks too warm for the coastal areas.

 

 

still plenty of time and will depend on exactly what the weekend storm leaves behind and hopefully can drag some cold enough air down after it passes........

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Looks like the 12z UKMET is trying to show something like the 0z Euro. But it isn’t easy to see the exact details with these low resolution maps.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

Yes... just hope it's consistent. will recheck everything at 4P and finally set up Jan 3 at that time  GGEM and UKMET are now on abord.  Hope the 12z GV16 comes back, and Euro stays on it. Thanks for all the posts.  Suspect will favor I84 for primary now event but may allow for closer to I95 option.  Need more thinking time. 

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There's some sort of cruel and dark weenie humor here if Central Park manages to record an inch of snow just a few days outside of December. Just missing the mark to have a 30 inch average snowfall for the 30 year period. lol

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Warm

Good for inland SNE 

Makes sense that a really amped up solution would be warm at the coast with such an unfavorable Pacific. The closed low went north of us this run. We needed a perfect thread the needle UL track and storm spacing to get at least a change to snow after such a mild start to the storm.

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Agree 100%. It would need to be the definition of thread the needle for the metro area to get snow. The airmass is putrid, the wave spacing isn’t that great and yea, the PAC sucks

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