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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EPS looks decent for the 26th, albeit still a bit suppressed. I really like the last week of January post 1/25, after the pattern peaks, for several inches of snow. Both 1/26 and especially 1/29 viable threats.

Sell this week-

Interesting. The OP looked north.

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8 hours ago, DotRat_Wx said:

Some would benefit from Xanax 

Or horse tranquilizers. 

 

5 hours ago, Kbosch said:

These threads are high comedy. I thank you all, especially the regulars, on behalf of those who mostly lurk and laugh. 

We're struggling. Even a swing and a miss would be welcome at this point - something, anything, to track and ponder. As many have mentioned in the last few weeks, vaporizing our cover on Christmas was the most devastating component of this awful stretch. It'd been a lot different around these parts if we were clinging to that well into 2021.

It's particularly painful to me to have watched the coastal Connecticut sky spitting out snow last May, and then again in October, only to leave us with this purgatory in prime time. We all know what February can do. We got this. Stay sane.

Join the circus, post more.

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This is one of the most boring January’s i have experienced, and odds are getting high it continues to the last couple days of month . Fugly but just keep temps decent . No arctic cold please ! 

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25 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is one of the most boring January’s i have experienced, and odds are getting high it continues to the last couple days of month . Fugly but just keep temps decent . No arctic cold please ! 

Last January 20',  one storm on the 19th, had 6", after that it was Feb.6,2020(2"), then Feb.13th(3"), last Mar. 24,2020(6")

nickle and dime that gets washed away a few days later....water tables looking good ,from a friend that works for a well co

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9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sorry, but you're wrong. There is a reason we average what we do.....odds are against sub par seasons several years in a row.

Fact, not opinion.

Are you arguing they are dependent events?  Someone can flip a coin and get heads six times consecutively...on the seventh flip the odds of heads are still 50/50.

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32 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you arguing they are dependent events?  Someone can flip a coin and get heads six times consecutively...on the seventh flip the odds of heads are still 50/50.

Yep. I’d ask this question first....how many times have you had 3 subpar seasons in a row? 

I’ll bet the answer is very few. For ORH I can only think of 4 times going back to 1950. (Btw I defined “subpar” as anything below the 40th percentile...so if ORH had 64” in a season, that is considered “normal” in my classification...even though technically it is slightly below the long term mean of 69”)

1. ‘97-98 through ‘99-‘00

2 ‘88-89 through ‘91-‘92 (this is 4 consecutive...the only time)

4. ‘78-‘79 through ‘80-‘81

3. ‘52-‘53 through ‘54-‘55

So our sample size here is actually 4. If you took it at face value, that means we’d have a 1 in 4 chance of getting 4 in a row. However, we know small sample sizes aren’t representative of the longer term probability, and the chances of getting 4 in a row are actually close to 50/50 unless there is some meteorological reason to believe that the 4th season is biased toward above normal snowfall after 3 subpar seasons. I certainly cannot come to that conclusion statistically with a mere sample size of 4 trials. 

 

We first need to reach 3 seasons in a row. That’s far from a done deal considering many spots are actually above normal still. 

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is one of the most boring January’s i have experienced, and odds are getting high it continues to the last couple days of month . Fugly but just keep temps decent . No arctic cold please ! 

There's still time to look to the future...February is the future.

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1 minute ago, Fozz said:

With this ridiculously warm base state, 2015 feels like it was many generations ago. It's like we've gotten 50 years of warming in the span of 5 years.

It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. 
At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. 
At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon.

+5-15F is sneaky?

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. 
At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon.

Amazing how much Jan ‘69 is showing up on the objective analogs these days...you hate to see it. 

Lets hope the season follows the same progression as that one did. 

 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s all on the other side of the pole. And with no snow cover, it won’t be getting cold unless things change. More and more things are starting to awake in terms of plant life. We’ve had zero bitter cold this winter when even our warmest winters at least have a brief shot or two. It’s been a sneaky torch. 
At this point, it’s good to start getting outdoor stuff done. Already cleaned up my backyard again. Onto the front soon.

This should tell anyone hanging onto thinking or hoping a snowy period is coming all they need to know.  Over 

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Just now, Lava Rock said:

+5-15F is sneaky?

There hasn’t been a signature torch like you’d normally see with that type of departure over a half-month period. It’s been consistently pseudo-winter like with highs in the 30s but lows even more above normal. Very monotonous in the spread. 

 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This should tell anyone hanging onto thinking or hoping a snowy period is coming all they need to know.  Over 

Sounds like a little reverse Scooter psychology there.  

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It’s tough because the pattern looks good going forward...so as each threat fails, you get the urge to punt but if you are looking objectively at the pattern, you know you can’t because it is still favorable going into early February. 

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sounds like a little reverse Scooter psychology there.  

The favorable pattern over the last few weeks has led to much above normal temps , not a flake of snow and rains to Maine’s other than the Mtns.  I wonder what an unfavorable pattern would yield? 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The favorable pattern over the last few weeks has led to much above normal temps , not a flake of snow and rains to Maine’s other than the Mtns.  I wonder what an unfavorable pattern would yield? 

70s and tulips probably. I don’t know what’s going on but hopefully we can see some flakes on the 26th. 

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This should tell anyone hanging onto thinking or hoping a snowy period is coming all they need to know.  Over 

I didn’t say it’s over. It’s more like there isn’t really anything to talk about. 

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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

70s and tulips probably. I don’t know what’s going on but hopefully we can see some flakes on the 26th. 

Without the -NAO we would have had an epic winter heat wave. Some of the objective analogs for the hemispheric pattern earlier this month were early January 2007....people might remember many spots hit 70F during that one.

The only thing different this time was a west based NAO block that kept us in the 30s for the most part with well above average low temps. It was actually not a bad snow pattern, we just couldn’t get any of the shortwaves to cooperate....very narrowly missed a good one on 1/3-1/4 and then missed another chance on 1/12. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Amazing how much Jan ‘69 is showing up on the objective analogs these days...you hate to see it. 

Lets hope the season follows the same progression as that one did. 

 

How did Jan69 end in your memory bank?

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This should tell anyone hanging onto thinking or hoping a snowy period is coming all they need to know.  Over 

Bro..you are one big Bi-polar guy when it comes to Weather.  
 

This January absolutely sucks, I couldn’t agree more.  And if February gets hostile, then what is this? This is pretty hostile no matter which way you slice it.  
 

But you’re psychotic flip flopping is off the charts. Lol One day your touting we have chances all week and let’s see how much snow is on the ground by this time next Saturday. And then it was back to a ratter. Then it was the  Fake Norlun you’re looking for. And now you’re back to doom And gloom again.  
 

This could be the worst case of the Bi-Polar weather blues I’ve ever seen from you.  You hate to see it. Stay safe..try to keep a grasp on reality.  It’ll all be ok. 

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Without the -NAO we would have had an epic winter heat wave. Some of the objective analogs for the hemispheric pattern earlier this month were early January 2007....people might remember many spots hit 70F during that one.

The only thing different this time was a west based NAO block that kept us in the 30s for the most part with well above average low temps. It was actually not a bad snow pattern, we just couldn’t get any of the shortwaves to cooperate....very narrowly missed a good one on 1/3-1/4 and then missed another chance on 1/12. 

This is what makes this month departures that much more impressive.  Sitting at +7.6F right now.

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if this winter continues to rat, it will be the 3rd BN in a row for snow for me. It will also be the 4th BN out of the last 6. ewwwww

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