nycwinter Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Evening Update... The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet, and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition, which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy, with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey. In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the north, but banding will produce local variations in totals. Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas, especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued treacherous conditions into the morning. No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas. Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect, and are covered in their respective sections below. hmm channel 7 map shows 9 inches by midnight in the city.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 the southeast trend of the sleet line would be good news for me since I'm on the edge of good totals and taint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: SIAP, but here's the latest from the NWS...if the underlined part about the snow/sleet/rain transition line being further SE than expected comes true, folks from Trenton to NYC will likely see mostly or all snow (and at least 8" and up to 12" and maybe more if the back end delivers), but that's certainly not a given. At current rates, we'll have 6" by 10 pm, the earliest any models showed sleet. We'll see... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 555 PM EST Wed Dec 16 2020 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Evening Update... The storm is well underway now, with steady to heavy snow, sleet, and rain having overspread all areas. Made a few tweaks to the snow amounts to reflect some observations, but we`re well past the point for any meaningful changes. In general the onset and ptype transition have gone about as expected and the forecast continues to track well for such a big event. If anything the cold air has held on a little longer than expected and certainly longer than a lot of this morning`s hi res guidance indicated, leading to some higher totals across portions of southern New Jersey. This includes here at the office where some massive snowflakes and snowfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour have been observed leading into the transition, which was happening here around 5:30 PM after about 4 inches of snow. That transition line continues to march north and there have been no changes to headlines or the overall forecast philosophy, with the sharp gradient appearing it will end up just slightly southeast of forecast especially in New Jersey. In addition to the ptype transition, satellite and radar also show the dry slot rapidly approaching from the southwest. This should lead to precipitation rates falling off significantly or precipitation ending completely for areas such as Delmarva and parts of southern New Jersey over the next few hours. Further north, snow rates are starting to come up significantly, and these areas remain in line for the highest totals. No noteworthy changes to the forecast to the north and west with a widespread 10 to 20 inches of snow still expected. Dry slotting should be less of a factor to the north, but banding will produce local variations in totals. Late tonight as the low starts to pull away, a final wrap-around band of precipitation may bring some additional snow to many areas, especially towards central and northern New Jersey. This could add on an inch or two of accumulation within a couple of hours during the predawn hours. In addition, falling temperatures later tonight could lead to a refreeze of any water or slush, yielding continued treacherous conditions into the morning. No changes to the wind forecast either, with winds steadily ramping up from south to north. A 60 to 70 kt easterly LLJ will continue to bring a lengthy period of gusty winds as it partially mixes down to the surface, especially along the coast and within the heavier precipitation. Gusts up to 60mph remain possible along the immediate coast this evening and into tonight, with 45 to 55mph gusts possible in the coastal plain and 35 to 45 mph gusts elsewhere. Storm total QPF continues to look mainly at or below 2 inches, possibly a bit higher along the New Jersey coast and towards the Poconos. Dry slotting should help keep liquid totals manageable in most areas. Outside of nuisance/poor drainage flooding, no hydro issues are anticipated. Marine and coastal flood headlines remain in effect, and are covered in their respective sections below. the sleet area may just be in only brooklyn southern queens and not in uptown in manhattan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, bluewave said: Heaviest snow of the event so far in SW Suffolk. Estimated visibility 1/4 to 1/2 mile. Ripping 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I haven't seen it snow this hard with gusty winds in years. Beautiful outside Upton .HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...HUDSON...PASSAIC... UNION...BERGEN...ESSEX...QUEENS...RICHMOND...BRONX...KINGS... ROCKLAND...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...SUFFOLK...NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) AND NASSAU COUNTIES... Heavy snow will develop over the area through 7pm. Snowfall rates of 1 to possibly two inches per hour are likely to develop. I have. I believe it was March 22 2018 Islip airport which is two miles from me had 5” in one hour. They had 9” of snow in two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Keep in mind the sleet line was supposed to stall out for a while once it reached Sandy Hook. It's already behind schedule along the Jersey shore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 About 3” now it’s Accumulating fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 41. Still raining. 10 miles to the north, heavy snow, with about 3" on the roads 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Keep in mind the sleet line was supposed to stall out for a while once it reached Sandy Hook. It's already behind schedule along the Jersey shore. Slower along the Jersey Shore for the time being and faster near the Delaware River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My friend in central NJ has 5 inches What do you consider CNJ? I'm in CNJ we have nowhere near that here. Maybe 2, 2.5. CNJ goes from like Jackson all the way to just north of the GSP bridge; areas to the west could have that much; i'm to the east. Flakes also just got bigger, which usually is a bad sign.....but I'm not hearing the sleet line is moving north yet..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 As of 6:45 pm, just measured 1.4" new. Current temp is 18.7° with moderate snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Eyeballing 4” or so in Hillsborough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 10 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the sleet area may just be in only brooklyn southern queens and not in uptown in manhattan Thats what they were forecasting anyway, so perhaps it may not make it to BK, southern Queens for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: Keep in mind the sleet line was supposed to stall out for a while once it reached Sandy Hook. It's already behind schedule along the Jersey shore. When the precip starts to peter out later tonight the mix will come north faster. That's what's happening in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 NYC had .17 liquid this past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Very legit band coming through nyc metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 According to KDIX radar, we've had 2.5" of liquid here since the start of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, nycwinter said: the sleet area may just be in only brooklyn southern queens and not in uptown in manhattan If it its sleet in Brooklyn it will usually be sleet by me and RU's area as well. It's going to sleet, it's just matter of time, for a lot of us here. When? That's the question....at least it isn't rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, CarLover014 said: According to KDIX radar, we've had 2.5" of liquid here since the start of the storm. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: What do you consider CNJ? I'm in CNJ we have nowhere near that here. Maybe 2, 2.5. CNJ goes from like Jackson all the way to just north of the GSP bridge; areas to the west could have that much; i'm to the east. Flakes also just got bigger, which usually is a bad sign.....but I'm not hearing the sleet line is moving north yet..... It’s stopped at Toms River. We will be fine. Areas in eastern pa will flip way before us. mod snow 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: If it its sleet in Brooklyn it will usually be sleet by me and RU's area as well. It's going to sleet, it's just matter of time, for a lot of us here. When? That's the question....at least it isn't rain. I will let you know when I change over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Temperature slowly rising here, up to 29degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 ...here on ELI 29.8* ..moderate snow.. snow started around 3:45..stuck immediately to everything.. not sure but either we 'taint or we ain't"..hoping for ain't.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 minute ago, CarLover014 said: Definitely not correct on qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
krisb Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ripping in this nice band in SE Nassau. Nice big flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jysamuel Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Hi everyone - longtime forum stalker finally decided to join Heavy snow here on the Staten Island south shore - a balmy 25° and close to 3.5" here. Roads are a mess! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Sleet in Harrisburg per TWC after 3”. Screw zone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 That yellow band just got here-wow!! Dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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