SnowGolfBro Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said: 28/25 hrrr continues to keep the weenie hopes alive here We could get lucky for a bit with heavy snow before the inevitable flip. 28/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Camaraderie time is over. It's a dick swinging contest now. I easily have this won. Everyone else better pack up their tents and go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr gives the metros a nice little event before the flip to rain. It’s just a plus to see snow for a couple hours in mid December especially after last year. It’s been fun tracking this event, hopefully more surprises ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I thought a few pages back it got the thumbs down. Ok up your way along the MD/PA border west for a bit? It’s the only guidance that shows me all snow. But that’s simply because it can’t pick up on mid level warm layers. Never has. Although I guess this is the new GFS lol. But I find it suspect that EVERY other nwp is wrong on that warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 24 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: You wont be. Not where you live now. Good things are happening for you tomorrow my friend. Stephens City will get shellacked and totally annihilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: We could get lucky for a bit with heavy snow before the inevitable flip. 28/23 yeah i wont necessarily be surprised by a decent start. seems pretty likely we beat last winter's total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gisman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 hour ago, jayyy said: We have any Cumberland / Frostburg folks in here?! Good grief. I envy you. Not a resident, but I picked Rocky Gap park (6 miles outside of Cumberland) as chase destination to experience some decent volume. I hope this was the right choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Nice post by DT tonight on Facebook for his final call. "Winchester Leesbsurg Martinsburg Frederick Hagerstown 90% all snow 12 " seems a decent number" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s the only guidance that shows me all snow. But that’s simply because it can’t pick up on mid level warm layers. Never has. Although I guess this is the new GFS lol. But I find it suspect that EVERY other nwp is wrong on that warm layer. It's the "new" GFS, but it has the old physics, so I suspect that its inability to capture mid-level warm layers remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Hrrr gives I 95 about 2-4” before a flip to rain areas west of 81 look great. Will easily take this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: Northern Carroll? He likes western and north central MD as his big winners. He tends to concentrate on VA for the details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Northern Carroll? No question. 12"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, Zdudswx said: Hrrr gives I 95 about 2-4” before a flip to rain areas west of 81 look great. Will easily take this Unfortunate that we can't get a warning level, but I guess 2-4" ain't bad for a storm with this setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Latest Hrrr looks SWEET MAN I'm going to bed before it takes my snow away at 04z. Good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zdudswx Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Unfortunate that we can't get a warning level, but I guess 2-4" ain't bad for a storm like this... Yea, sadly there’s just not enough cold air locked in place. Early December bay temps are always against us. If it were mid January we all would cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, Zdudswx said: Yea, sadly there’s just not enough cold air locked in place. Early December bay temps are always against us. If it were mid January we all would cash in. A track as shown on the models now really wouldn't be great in January in Baltimore either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, Zdudswx said: Yea, sadly there’s just not enough cold air locked in place. Early December bay temps are always against us. If it were mid January we all would cash in. Definitely...this was just a bit too early! I'm about to go look at the long range pattern prospects for comfort...lol Current AO forecast is just the Tylenol we need after this headache! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, WVclimo said: No question. 12"+ What are you thinking out our way? Didn't think we would be fighting the mix line but it looks as if we may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, high risk said: It's the "new" GFS, but it has the old physics, so I suspect that its inability to capture mid-level warm layers remains. I’m not doubting it but I thought they changed the core when they upgraded to the FV3 version. Being non hydrostatic v the old GFS you would think the physics have to be different. Yet it has some of the same weaknesses from what I’ve see so far. Makes me wonder if there is something in the methodology or data assimilation of NCEP behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 27 minutes ago, wizard021 said: We are getting slammed in our area, you guys looking good too. 12 - 18 Baltimore - Boston. DC is now 3 to 6 . What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Don’t forget to flush an ice cube down the toilet, sleep with your pajamas inside out and put a spoon under your pillows to maximize our snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 16 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I easily have this won. Everyone else better pack up their tents and go home. You’d fit in well with the New England forum if you ever moved north. A lot of the guys love dirty jokes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 25/23 Haymarket at 11:45 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 1 minute ago, jayyy said: What is the WRF ARW2 smoking? Its smoking 3 to 4 inch hour rates. I am seeing just that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 2 minutes ago, wizard021 said: Its smoking 3 to 4 inch hour rates. I am seeing just that. In New York? Where exactly? Ps - go away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Thanks. I'm not really on social media other than here lol. Mby forecast is for 8"-14" total storm . I feel 75% confident I'm gonna go more conservative and reduce my totals from yesterday. I'll say 6-10 with 12 being max potential. Unfortunately I think the mix period last longer and hurts chances for 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 31 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: I'm out 522N of winchester. A bit NW of lake holiday. 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: He moved from a snow hole to a beatdown zone. Really glad to hear, and I hope all you westerners and northerners end up with double digit totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: I'm gonna go more conservative and reduce my totals from yesterday. I'll say 6-10 with 12 being max potential. Unfortunately I think the mix period last longer and hurts chances for 12+. Thinking the same for me here. 6-10 instead it 10-16 like I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not doubting it but I thought they changed the core when they upgraded to the FV3 version. Being non hydrostatic v the old GFS you would think the physics have to be different. Yet it has some of the same weaknesses from what I’ve see so far. Makes me wonder if there is something in the methodology or data assimilation of NCEP behind it. As you noted, the core was changed, but most of the actual physics (except for the microphysics) were retained. I think that the PBL scheme plays a role in these warm layer cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2020 Share Posted December 16, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: A track as shown on the models now really wouldn't be great in January in Baltimore either. No but in January with a colder airmass and less scolding water temps the low likely doesn’t track as far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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